2021 AL Cy Young Futures Bets: The American League has a tightly bunched group of true favorites for its Cy Young Award. Odds used for 2021 AL Cy Young Futures are provided courtesy of PointsBet.
Compare these 2021 AL Cy Young Award bet tips with the 2021 NL Cy Young Futures Bet Tips, also written by Josh Shepardson.
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2021 AL Cy Young Award Futures Bets
American League Cy Young Award Odds
- Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees (+350)
- Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians (+400)
- Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox (+450)
- Tyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (+1000)
- Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Toronto Blue Jays (+1200)
- Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins (+1800)
- Lance Lynn, SP, Chicago White Sox (+1800)
- Corey Kluber, SP, New York Yankees (+1800)
- Kenta Maeda, SP, Minnesota Twins (+2000)
- Dallas Keuchel, SP, Chicago White Sox (+2000)
- Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox (+2000)
The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Shane Bieber, opens with the second-shortest wagering odds behind Gerrit Cole.
Two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber (2014 and 2017) is another former award winner, but he’s thrown only 36.2 innings over the last two seasons, making him a curious inclusion in the top-10 shortest odds.
Dallas Keuchel (2015) is the only other pitcher above who’s claimed the hardware. Keuchel’s new teammate, Lance Lynn, pitched an MLB-high 84 innings in the shortened 2020 season.
2021 AL Cy Young Award Bet Picks
2021 AL Cy Young: Smart Money Bet
Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox (+450)
Lucas Giolito validated his 2019 breakout with another excellent season. Further, his sterling numbers are even better if you cherry-pick and drop his dreadful first start.
Giolito ripped off a 2.75 ERA, 3.33 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9.3 BB%, 35.1 K%, and 17.4 SwStr% in his last 11 starts spanning 68 2/3 innings, according to FanGraphs.
He threw a no-hitter along the way and dazzled in a seven-inning postseason win in which he yielded one run on two hits, one walk, and eight strikeouts.
He’s working on another weapon: a breaking pitch he calls the “downer," to add to his already high-octane arsenal.
Giolito’s a workhorse who has the goods to put up a Cy Young-caliber season, and ZiPS projects him to lead pitchers in FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (WAR).
2021 AL Cy Young Futures Bets: Best Picks & Sleepers For American League’s Top Pitcher include Houston’s Framber Valdez, one of 2020’s biggest breakout players. (USA TODAY Sports)
2021 AL Cy Young Sleeper Bets
Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros (+2500)
Lynn’s regular-season innings mark led the way, but Framber Valdez totaled more innings after factoring in postseason innings. He piled up 70.2 innings in the regular season and added another 24 innings to his ledger in the postseason.
His 94 2/3 innings pitched provide him a foundation few of his peers can boast after the pandemic-shortened season, perhaps giving him an easy-to-overlook edge over most AL Cy Young Award betting options.
Valdez is a groundball-inducing machine, having led 2020’s qualified pitchers with a 60.0 GB%. The 26-year-old lefty can net quick outs with his sinker, but his curveball gives him a nasty putaway pitch. Valdez’s curve netted an 18.0 SwStr% and tallied an eye-popping 51.7 K%.
He pitched six or more innings in 12 of his final 13 starts when including his three postseason starts, positioning him to rack up quality starts. Valdez also ranked eighth among qualified pitchers in SIERA (3.23), putting him fourth among AL pitchers.
Dylan Bundy, SP, Los Angeles Angels (+4000)
A change of scenery was what Dylan Bundy needed, and he thrived in his first season with the Los Angeles Angels. He twirled a 3.29 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.80 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 6.4 BB%, 27.0 K%, and 12.9 SwStr% in 11 starts spanning 65.2 innings.
Bundy wisely threw his fastballs at the lowest percentage of his career, instead opting to lean on his excellent secondary pitches, headlined by his slider. The result was a career year that included a new high in strikeout percentage.
He did a fantastic job of managing the quality of contact when he wasn’t missing bats. Bundy tied for the 10th-lowest barrels-per-plate-appearance percentage (3.0 Brls/PA%), according to Baseball Savant. Bundy’s wagering odds suggest gamblers aren’t entirely buying into his breakout, but I am. He’s a screaming betting value.
