2021 NBA Props Betting Picks Nov. 18, 2021 | Best Basketball Prop Bets Today 11/18/21
With a slate of only six NBA games tonight, Kevin Davis aka Professor Props is giving out his best NBA player props today. With his NBA Player Props model up and running, Davis is excited to start sharing his model’s best NBA prop picks.
Below, read about the four players he is targeting for Thursday night’s NBA action.
All NBA odds and lines are current as of Thursday, November 18, at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Kevin Davis NBA season record: 11-10 (-0.76 units, -3.6% ROI)
NBA Prop Bets of the Day: Best Basketball Props Today 11/18/21
Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets (9:00 p.m. ET)
Nikola Jokic: Under 26.5 Points (-105) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 Units
Every conversation about a Denver Nuggets game must begin or end with Nikola Jokic. As a big man who is involved in every facet of the Nuggets’ offense, his usage affects his player prop numbers as well as his teammates’ numbers.
Jokic currently has a 31.7% usage rate, which is the highest on Denver and the 10th-highest in the NBA. According to my model, Jokic’s assist and rebound totals are appropriately set, but his point total at 26.5 points has been set too high.
Even though opposing center Joel Embiid is out for the Philadelphia 76ers, Jokic isn’t that much better off as Embiid’s replacement Andre Drummond is an average defender.
Furthermore, Jokic has scored at least 27 points in only four of his last 11 games. Given how involved he is in the passing game (6.3 assists per game), taking the Under is the safer play here.
Nikola Jokic: Under 26.5 Points (PHI @ DEN, 11/18/21)
Bet $20, Payout $39
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Monte Morris: Under 12.5 Points (-114) at FanDuel
Wager: 1.5 Units
Monte Morris is a consistent role player on a Nuggets offense centered around Jokic. As Denver’s starting point guard, Morris plays around 30 minutes per game, takes 8-10 field-goal attempts, and averages a career-high 11.4 points per game.
That’s why I was surprised to see FanDuel offering Morris’ point total at 12.5 points, especially given how poorly he’s shot from beyond the arc this year (29.6%). In 14 games this year, he’s only gone over 12 points six times.
While the Sixers have struggled this year, their defense has limited opposing point guards to 20.6 points per game, which is the eighth-fewest in the NBA. Enemy point guards are also connecting on just 42.3% of their field-goal attempts as well.
Morris is typically an afterthought in an offense that revolves around Jokic and will likely finish with around 8-10 points, making the Under our NBA bet of the day.
Monte Morris: Under 12.5 Points (PHI @ DEN, 11/18/21)
Bet $20, Payout $38
Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz (9:00 p.m. ET)
Donovan Mitchell: Under 26.5 Points (-120) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Utah Jazz shooting guard Donovan Mitchell‘s 33.8% usage rate is the fourth-highest in the NBA. On a per-game basis, Mitchell typically launches around 21 field goal attempts, roughly 10 of which will be three-point attempts.
Mitchell is currently averaging 24.6 points per game, nearly two full points lower than his prop line. He’s also scored fewer than 27 points in four of his last five games (including a season-low 13 in his most recent game), averaging 21.8 points per night during that span.
Even when considering Toronto’s questionable defense, Mitchell should have fewer than 26.5 points tonight.
Donovan Mitchell: Under 26.5 Points (TOR @ UTA, 11/18/21)
Bet $20, Payout $37
Joe Ingles: Over 2.5 Assists (-160) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 Units
Joe Ingles is one of those players who plays an important role on his team but doesn’t accumulate many stats. He plays heavy minutes as a reserve, however, averaging more than 25 per game.
Since Ingles isn’t a big scorer (7.2 points per game), he tends to be more of a facilitator on offense. That’s been evident over his past six games, as he’s focused more on passing (4.2 assists per game) than scoring (4.0 points per game).
Expect that trend to continue tonight, especially with Ingles coming off a season-high seven assists in his most recent game. Even at -160 on our NBA gameday odds, Ingles notching at least three assists is a good bet.
Joe Ingles: Over 2.5 Assists (TOR @ UTA, 11/18/21)
Bet $20, Payout $33
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