We did it.
Again.
Another week in the NFL, another week of profitable prop betting. For the third consecutive weekend, my NFL prop bets went a tidy 5-3. (That’s 15-9 in the past three weeks for those keeping score at home. I am happy to do this kind of math on your behalf.)
I was 2-0 in the Patriots-Carolina game. I was also 2-0 for Chargers-Eagles. And I was close to another 2-0 game in Steelers-Bears; 1-1 will have to do.
It’s been a nice run, but I am not content. In fact, I am never content.
As the results in the NFL get weirder and more unpredictable, I seem to grow more comfortable. And as we move into a Week 10 that has plenty of fascinating games and also a few massive point spreads, I am hoping to pick my spots wisely.
I’ll take 5-3, although let’s push for more.
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NFL Week 10 Best Prop Bets
New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans
Trevor Sieiman was solid. Alvin Kamara was himself. And the Saints, coming off a massive win against the Bucs, still fell to the Falcons. The NFL is weird, and this is just one of many games that reminded us of that.
The Titans, meanwhile, needed 194 yards of offense in a massive win over the Rams. The first game without star RB Derrick Henry was a smashing success, thanks in large part to a defensive line that was dominant. The offense did enough, although it wasn’t asked to do much.
Defense could be a theme once again between two teams that (normally) play plenty of it. And while Tennessee certainly started off right, we still need to see what this offense will look like without Henry in games like this.
- Read our full Saints vs. Titans Predictions & Best Bets.
Under 22.5 First Half Points (-110) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
While the New Orleans defense wasn’t great last week, I think we see a much better effort this time around. The absence of Henry coupled with the question marks on the Saints’ offense keeps things slow early on.
Tennessee Titans Under 2.5 Touchdowns (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
It won’t come as easy as it did last week. The offense will have to do more, barring a slew of interceptions, and I believe a new offensive reality begins to set in. Tennessee stays in the game, although the scoreboard is quiet.
Minnesota Vikings at L.A. Chargers
The Vikings really know how to lose football games. It’s actually quite amazing how well they have this weekly ritual down.
Minnesota’s five losses this season have come by a combined 18 points. That translates to a lot of broken televisions in Minneapolis. The latest, an overtime defeat against the Ravens, featured the Vikings blowing a 17-3 lead. Yikes.
Still, this offense has talent. While the end results haven’t been there, this team knows how to score.
The Chargers, in many ways, can relate. The only difference is that the records between these two teams are flipped. Los Angeles snuck past the Eagles 27-24, and Justin Herbert looked like himself for the first time in weeks. After back-to-back losses, Herbert’s team got on track with a win.
The records might look vastly different, but the game should be competitive. And if you like points, this is the game for you.
- Read our full Vikings vs. Chargers Predictions & Best Bets.
Over Six Touchdowns (-130) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Herbert and Kirk Cousins might put on a bit of a show. While Herbert certainly has the edge in many ways, Cousins has plenty of weapons to throw to. This could be a tremendous back-and-forth.
Over 10 First-Quarter Points (+100) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Let’s lean into the points blueprint a bit more. With these quarterbacks capable of making big plays at any point on the field, I don’t think we wait long to see action.
After their upset win over the Cowboys in Week 9, can Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos keep things rolling against the Eagles in Week 10? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos
Of all the NFL weirdness in Week 9, Denver’s complete domination of the Cowboys at home certainly stands tallest. The Broncos won convincingly as a 10-point underdog.
Rooking running back Javonte Williams was explosive, Teddy Bridgewater was solid, Jerry Jeudy looked healthy and the Denver defense was superb. It was the team’s most complete performance to date. Amid a myriad of weird weeks, Denver is still a respectable 5-4.
The Eagles were up for the matchup against the Chargers, although they still fell 27-24. It was the third loss in four games for Philly. The lone win? It came against the Lions.
In fact, since a Week 1 win over Atlanta, the Eagles have beat two teams: Detroit and Carolina. Not exactly the finest resume bumps.
Still, I believe they’ll be competitive this week even if they fall short of a victory once again.
- Read our full Eagles vs. Broncos Predictions & Best Bets.
Largest Lead of the Game Under 14.5 Points (-12) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
I know we just witnessed that the Broncos are capable of beating (or at least leading) a team by a wider margin, but I need to see it again. Philly was able to respond consistently in its game against the Chargers, and I believe we see a similar flow.
Philadelphia Eagles Over 2.5 First Quarter Points (-150) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Can they get a field goal? That’s all we need. After watching last week, I believe the answer is yes. While I respect the Denver defense a great deal, I’ll lay (-150) and push for at least three points.
Best NFL Prop Bets Today
L.A. Rams at San Francisco 49ers
The good news for the Rams is that last week is over. Considering how poorly the offensive line played against the Titans—Matt Stafford looked inconsistent, albeit under constant pressure—it’s hard to pull many positives away from that loss.
Other than that, well, it’s behind them. It was also only the Rams’ second loss of the year.
San Francisco has already lost five games. In fact, all five of those losses have come in the last six matchups. Oh, and the 49ers are a dreadful 2-6 against the spread.
Making matters worse is the fact that QB Jimmy Garoppolo has actually played quite well in recent weeks. The running game, which totaled 39 rushing yards in Week 10, is a bit of a different story.
I envision both offenses recovering. Although the Rams are likely too talented in too many places to struggle for long.
- Read our full Rams vs. 49ers Predictions & Best Bets.
Over 23.5 First Half Points (-115) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
Both offenses, as mentioned above, should find success. Both are also likely eager to get cooking after rough outings last week. There’s just a ton of skill-position talent across the board, especially when it comes to pass catchers. Scoring gets started early.
L.A. Rams Over 2.5 Touchdowns (-180) at Betway
Wager: 1 Unit
It’s a lot of juice to lay, although I am willing to lay it. Stafford won’t give the ball to the other team nearly as much this time around. The Rams should hit this with ease.
