The NFL has been extremely volatile of late, with a surprising number of underdogs overcoming the odds and beating superior teams week after week.
Perhaps the biggest upset of the season occurred last Sunday, when the Jacksonville Jaguars stunned the Buffalo Bills for their second win of the season. The first-place Bills, who have now lost two of their last three, must regroup after an embarrassing 9-6 defeat in Jacksonville.
Buffalo will try to get back on track against an equally dysfunctional team in the New York Jets, who are 2-6 after losing on Thursday Night Football to the Indianapolis Colts. However, the Jets will have quarterback Mike White back under center on Sunday, after he left Thursday’s contest early with a forearm injury.
Who will win this AFC East showdown? Let’s dive in with our Bills vs Jets predictions and best bets.
Please note that all NFL Week 10 odds and lines are current as of 12 PM ET on Friday, November 12.
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Bills vs Jets Prediction
The Bills are coming off their worst game of the season, at least offensively. Their 301 total yards marked a season-low, while their six points were the franchise’s fewest in a game since the 2019 regular-season finale.
Buffalo’s clunker was even more surprising given that Jacksonville’s defense ranks among the worst in the league. New York’s defense is the worst, however, at least in terms of points per game (31.4). The Jets have been getting torched since their Week 6 bye, surrendering 130 points and 1,401 total yards of offense over their last three games combined.
On the bright side for New York, they do rank 14th in pass rush according to Pro Football Focus. That was the key for Jacksonville, which pressured Allen on 39 percent of his dropbacks and blitzed him 29 percent of the time. Like most quarterbacks, Allen struggles when blitzed, completing under 60 percent of his passes with three turnover-worthy plays.
Robert Saleh‘s crew will also have a few additional days to rest up and prepare for the Bills, who they have yet to face this season. Although Week 1 starter Zach Wilson (knee) is still at least a week away from returning, Mike White and Josh Johnson have both played well in his absence.
Overall though, Buffalo is still the clearly superior team and should win this game handily. Their defense is allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL while their offense has scored the fourth-most.
Look for the Bills to win by multiple scores against an inconsistent Jets team that has yielded at least 24 points in seven consecutive games.
Prediction: Bills 38, Jets 14
Bills vs Jets Best Bets
Best Bet: Bills -12 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This is a huge spread and for good reason. The Bills have scored nearly twice as many points (235) as they’ve allowed (118) this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 14.6 points per game (including losses).
Additionally, all of Buffalo’s wins this year have been blowouts, with their smallest margin of victory coming by 15 points.
The Jets, on the other hand, have allowed 107 more points than they’ve scored — an average of 13.4 per game.
All signs point to the Bills winning this game by multiple touchdowns and covering the spread, making this our NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Over 47.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Last week aside, the Bills have had little trouble putting up points this season. They’ve already topped 30 points five times this year and will likely do so again versus the Jets’ abysmal defense.
New York is also capable of scoring points, tallying at least 20 in four of their last five games. Regardless of who starts at signal-caller for them, there’s enough firepower to approach that number again, especially in garbage time.
While the Bills will probably score the bulk of the points here, both should do enough to hit the Over.
Best Bet: Jets Moneyline (+550) at Caesars
Wager: 0.1 Units
As expected, the moneylines for this game are pretty ridiculous on our NFL gameday odds. Accordingly, you’ll probably want to stay away from either unless you’re using it in a parlay.
But if you’re determined to bet the moneyline, consider sprinkling a bit on the Jets. The Bills did just lose to the Jaguars, after all, so anything is possible.
If New York can pressure Allen and avoid mistakes on their end, they could sneak away with an upset win at home. Improbable, yes, but not impossible.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 10 Bills vs Jets Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 10 Best Bets.