The Baltimore Ravens will travel to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins in the Week 10 edition of Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m ET on the NFL Network.
Thursday Night Football has already given us several compelling football games this season, including last week’s Indianapolis Colts vs New York Jets matchup.
Week 10 has one of the more lopsided matchups thus far, however, as Baltimore has been one of the best teams in the AFC this year while Miami has been one of the worst.
At the very least, we get to see Lamar Jackson in primetime, which is always a treat. Jackson’s enjoying another MVP-caliber season for the Ravens and appears primed to lead them to victory here.
For in-depth analysis and extended betting tips for TNF Week 10, read on for the latest installment in the TNF football predictions series.
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Thursday Night Football Prediction Week 10
As mentioned, the Ravens have played much better than the Dolphins this year, especially on offense. While Baltimore ranks in the top half of the league in numerous offensive categories, Miami rates near the bottom.
The one bright spot for the Dolphins is that they are decent at defending the run, which should help them limit the Ravens’ run-centric offense somewhat. There’s usually not much you can do against Baltimore’s ground game, however, which rates among the most prolific in the NFL.
Conversely, Miami is one of the worst teams in the NFL at running the ball. Look for that trend to continue against the Ravens, who boast one of the league’s stiffest run defenses.
Miami’s meek rushing attack will allow Baltimore to focus on rushing the passer, making Tua uncomfortable and forcing him to make mistakes while limiting the damage he can do against the Ravens’ suspect secondary sans Marcus Peters.
If the Dolphins are going to have any shot at winning this game, they must find a way to put points on the board and keep pace with Baltimore’s potent offense. Their defense must also step up after ranking as one of the worst in the NFL this season.
The Ravens, on the other hand, just need to keep doing what they do best. That’s run the ball well, play fundamentally sound football, and have Jackson continue his recent success as a passer.
Look for Baltimore to take care of Miami in a short week and emerge with another win, especially if Tua Tagovailoa (finger) sits.
TNF Week 10 Pick: Baltimore Ravens 27, Miami Dolphins 20
Thursday Night Football Betting Trends for 2021
- The Over is 3-6.
- The Underdog is 4-5 against the spread.
- The Favorite is 8-1 on the moneyline.
- The Home Team is 5-4.
*Anthony Cervino is 20-10 on his NFL Best Bets for 2021 for The Game Day.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets Week 10
*NFL gameday odds and lines are current as of Sunday, November 7 at 8 PM ET.
TNF Best Bet: Ravens -7 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 2 Units
The Ravens are a team with championship aspirations this year, while the Dolphins are playing for pride and draft positioning at this point. Miami can’t seem to get out of its own way and Baltimore typically dominates inferior teams, which should result in the Ravens winning by at least a touchdown.
I wouldn’t bet this game any higher than -7 if the line shifts, however, as the Dolphins should be able to keep this a one-possession game with their playmakers on offense and an underrated defense.
- Read our full Ravens vs Dolphins Prop Bets.
TNF Best Bet: Under 47.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I liked the Under last week and it blew up in my face thanks to the Jets’ backups. The Ravens’ defense started slow but has been playing better lately and should have another solid performance against a mediocre Dolphins offense.
We know Baltimore can score the football, but just because they’ll do the job on their end doesn’t mean the Over is a lock, especially in a short week on the road. If the Ravens jump out to an early lead, look for them to use their running game to control the clock and keep the game relatively low-scoring.
Take the Under down to 47 points for our NFL bet of the day.
TNF Best Bet: Ravens Moneyline (-330) at Caesars
Wager: 4 Units
The Ravens should dominate this game, even if the final score doesn’t necessarily reflect it. Now that we’re in the second half of the season we have a good sense of where everyone stands, and Baltimore is far and away the better team.
I believe they win and cover, but not in blowout fashion thanks to garbage time.