On a cold and windy night, pitchers finally got to showcase their skills. The Braves defeated the Astros, 2-0, at home, in the third game of the World Series, giving Atlanta a 2-1 lead.
This postseason, we’ve seen plenty of overs hit in games played against the Astros. There’s not much starting pitching depth on either team, but with ugly conditions last night, both teams managed to pitch well. The Braves, however, were just a little bit better, no-hitting the Astros through seven innings behind five shutout innings from Ian Anderson.
Due to the lack of depth in each rotation, Game 4 is going to feature starters that wouldn’t be on the mound if others were healthy. With that, here are my World Series Game 4 predictions and best bets.
Please note that all Astros vs Braves odds and lines are current as of 12 PM EST on Saturday, October 30.
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Astros vs Braves World Series Game 4 Prediction
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves, October 30, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Zack Greinke, Astros (11-6, 4.16 ERA)
- TBD, Braves
With the Astros down 2-1 in the series, they’ll call on veteran right-hander Zack Greinke to try to even things up. Greinke had a 4.16 ERA in the regular season and allowed two runs off three hits in the postseason through just 2.1 innings of work.
In the postseason, Greinke has earned nine ground balls to just two fly balls but has also walked three while striking out one. It’s taken him 58 pitches to throw those 2.1 innings in the postseason too.
In the last 30 days, Greinke has a 4.41 xFIP while striking out just 16.7 percent of batters and allowing 12.5 percent of walks. However, as I noted above, Greinke is getting a solid number of grounders at 66.7 percent in the last 30 days.
He hasn’t pitched all that much in the last 30 days, but on the season, Greinke has struggled against right-handed pitching. He’s allowed a .349 wOBA and ISO of .225 in 413 plate appearances against righties. Power bats such as Austin Riley and Jorge Soler are options when it comes to home runs against Greinke.
Meanwhile, the Braves have not yet announced who will start. It’s likely a bullpen game with an opener to start. If that’s the case, it’ll likely be Jesse Chavez, who has opened in previous games for Atlanta.
Chaves has a 3.96 xFIP in the last 30 days but low strikeouts and high walks. The low strikeouts come against righties while the high walks come against lefties.
Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has great numbers against righties but it’s unclear if he would even get the chance to hit Chavez as he’ll be batting fourth in the lineup.
At home, the Braves look mighty. The bullpen will need to step up, but the Braves have a .738 career OPS against Greinke as a roster currently. Joc Pederson has two home runs along with Eddie Rosario and Travis d’Arnaud.
Soler, Rosario, Pederson, and Adam Duvall have all hit over .300 against Greinke, but one of those four is going to have to sit.
Again, I like the Braves to win tonight. Home-field advantage has been huge for this team recently.
World Series Game 4 Pick: Braves 6, Astros 4
Astros vs Braves Best Bets
Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (-108) at FanDuel
Wager: 1 Unit
There’s a reason why Greinke wasn’t announced as the Game 4 starter until the game finally approached. He’s past his prime and like all of the other Astros pitchers, continues to walk a heavy number of batters while being unable to produce strikeouts.
The Braves are still hitting 28 percent line drives and limiting ground balls to 34.6 percent in the last 30 days against righties. So far, we’ve seen Atlanta be able to smack line drives, despite striking out 27.7 percent of the time against righties.
The Braves’ offense is very hit or miss but there’s always one or two guys that hit big shots on a nightly basis. That should be enough to get win number three in the World Series.
Read all of our 2021 World Series Game 4 Betting Tips
Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Runs (-105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Alvarez has a wOBA of .493 in the last 37 plate appearances against righties. With this game being a bullpen game, there’s a good chance Alvarez sees a couple of at-bats against righties. He’s walking 18.9 percent of the time against righties in the last 30 days and hitting 10 percent ground balls while smacking 50 percent line drives.
Behind him, Carlos Correa is hitting a .258 ISO with a .385 wOBA and Kyle Tucker is hitting a .282 ISO with a wOBA of .383 in the last 30 days. If Alvarez gets on, there’s opportunity to score with the next two batters slugging against righties recently.
Best Bet: Eddie Rosario Under 0.5 Strikeouts (-105) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
I know Rosario is batting leadoff and has more opportunity to strike out, but in the last 30 days he’s struck out just 9.6 percent of the time against righties this season. He’s hitting an ISO of .271 and a wOBA of .442 with solid contact of 20 percent line drives. He’s had a lot of check swings lately and was called out on a borderline swing yesterday.
I don’t think Greinke will fool Rosario early in this game. He’s striking out 16.7 percent of batters and has struck out just 7.7 percent of lefties in the last 30 days.