This week’s rematch between the New England Patriots and New York Jets features one team looking for its first home win and another team looking for its first road win.
For the Jets, this Week 7 matchup presents an opportunity to avenge their Week 2 home loss to the Patriots in which Zach Wilson threw four interceptions in a 25-6 drubbing. As for New England, this is their chance to finally get a home win after losing their first four games at Gillette Stadium, three of which were one-possession affairs.
Both teams are also in the process of building around rookie quarterbacks. Wilson was the second overall pick of the 2021 NFL Draft, while Mac Jones is starting for the Patriots after being taken 15th overall in the same draft class.
Let’s take a look at how this AFC East rivalry matchup will shake out in our Jets vs Patriots predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL Week 7 odds and lines are current as of 12 PM EST on Friday, October 22.
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Jets vs Patriots Prediction
Both teams have had a lot of moving parts this year as they build towards the future, so it’s not surprising that both squads have been inconsistent.
The Jets are coming off their bye at 1-4 after losing to the Atlanta Falcons in London during Week 5. Robert Saleh’s defense has looked improved at times, but Wilson has generally appeared overwhelmed by NFL defenses and sports an ugly 4:9 TD/INT ratio through five games.
Four of those picks came during Week 2 against the Patriots, who absolutely manhandled him in their first win of the season. New England’s defense ranks ninth in the NFL with 21.2 points per game allowed despite playing some tough offenses in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, and New Orleans Saints, so Wilson will need to limit his turnovers for New York to have a chance in this one.
The Patriots are still searching for their first home win of the season despite playing several close games in Foxborough, three of which were decided by a combined 10 points. They’ve been playing a bit over their heads, however, as their only wins this season have come against the 1-4 Jets and the 1-5 Houston Texans (barely).
Jones has looked great at times, but New England runs one of the most conservative offenses in the league so his upside has been extremely limited. Relegated to the role of glorified game-manager, Jones is only averaging 245.3 passing yards per game with a 7:6 TD/INT ratio.
With Wilson playing better as of late and New England’s defense reeling from an overtime loss to Dallas, this game should be much closer than their Week 2 contest. The Patriots should still win the turnover battle, however, and will likely prevail as a result.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 23
Jets vs Patriots Best Bets
Best Bet: New York Jets +7 (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I get it. The Jets are an easy punchline, and it’s tempting to look at their horrendous Week 2 performance against the Patriots and think New England is going to run away with this one.
But that was only Wilson’s second NFL start, and he looks more comfortable now than he did a month ago. The Patriots also just aren’t equipped to blow teams out, as they only beat the Texans by three points in Week 5. The Jets have come a long way since Week 2 and are certainly capable of hanging with the Pats for four quarters.
While it’s entirely possible that Wilson comes into Foxborough and throws three-plus interceptions, it’s much more likely that this is a close game that comes down to a last-minute field goal. I’m actually a little surprised the spread is more than three or four points, so jump on it now before it potentially shrinks later this week on our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: New England Patriots Moneyline (-300) at BetMGM
Wager: 0.5 Units
While I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jets pull off an upset this week (and I’m not sure I’d even consider it to be that much of an upset), I still think the Patriots will pull this one out and bank their first home win of the 2021 season.
New England went toe-to-toe with the defending Super Bowl champs three weeks ago and did the same with a very good Cowboys team last weekend. Both games came down to the final play, so the Patriots clearly have it in them to win this one.
While the Jets actually have the best win between the two teams this season (a 27-24 overtime victory against the Tennessee Titans in Week 4), they’re just way too green (no pun intended) and turnover-prone to put too much stock into this week.
Best Bet: Over 42.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
I’d imagine you’re all probably pretty good at math, so I’m sure you can do the arithmetic on my score prediction above to see that I think we’re going to see an Over here, making this our NFL bet of the day.
While both teams have put up absolute stinkers on offense this season, both rookie signal-callers have shown improvement from week to week and appear to be getting their feet under them. 43 combined points isn’t too much to ask for here, as both offenses are capable of putting up at least 20 points in this one.
Jets vs Patriots Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: +310 at Caesars
- Jets +5.5 (+120) at Caesars
- Over 41.5 Total Points (-125) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Have I mentioned that I think this game is going to be close? Don’t answer — that’s a rhetorical question.
I think we’re looking at a typical divisional matchup between two mediocre (at best) teams where neither one will pull away. While I think both will be able to top 20 points, I’m having a tough time envisioning a blowout.
I like this parlay in that it allows us to play out the scenario where both teams top 20 points while the Jets keep things close, and maybe even win.
I haven’t seen any player props released yet, but I’ll be back to update as soon as I do!
Nick Raducanu’s 2021 NFL Team vs Team Betting Record: 4-0, +5.11 Units
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