Week 7 brings us a battle between two of the best offenses (and worst defenses) in the NFL, as the 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs travel to Nashville to play the 4-2 Tennessee Titans.
Both teams are coming off victories in Week 6. The Chiefs rallied from a first-half deficit against the Washington Football Team en route to a 31-13 win, while the Titans earned a thrilling 34-31 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.
These are two very similar teams featuring explosive offenses and weak defenses. However, does that mean we should blindly bet the Over? Or is there a better play on this game we can make?
Let’s explore with our Chiefs vs Titans predictions and best bets. Please note that all NFL Week 7 odds and lines are current as of 1 PM EST on Friday, October 22.
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Chiefs vs Titans Prediction
This game is going to be a shootout. While the Titans’ defense grades 27th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA, the Chiefs’ defense rates dead last in that stat. Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 with over 26 points per game allowed, while both offenses rank in the top 10 with over 27 points per game scored.
The question is, which offense would you rather trust in a shootout?
The answer, of course, is the one with Patrick Mahomes, who leads the NFL with 18 touchdown passes this year. That’s 12 more than Ryan Tannehill has this season, as Tennessee’s offense has become exceptionally run-heavy with Derrick Henry.
The Titans are also coming off a short week after playing Monday Night Football, which means they’ll have one less day to prepare for Mahomes and co.
I hate betting road favorites, but this one should win comfortably.
Chiefs vs Titans Prediction: Chiefs 42, Titans 27
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will look to improve to 4-3 with a win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 7. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Chiefs vs Titans Best Bets
Best Bet: Chiefs -4.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
After reviewing our NFL gameday odds, the market appears to be overvaluing the Titans and undervaluing the Chiefs. It’s time to sell high on Tennessee, buy low on Kansas City, and bet on Mahomes to cover 4.5 points easily. Anytime you can get less than a touchdown with him, you have to consider it, so I’d play this up to Chiefs -6.5.
With Julio Jones and A.J. Brown both banged up, the Titans have featured an anemic passing attack this season. That’s going to make it incredibly difficult for them to keep pace with the Chiefs, who should have no problem gashing Tennessee’s porous secondary.
There will be a lot of points in this game, and Kansas City is going to score more of them.
Best Bet: Over 57.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 0.25 Units
This is the highest total on the Week 7 slate by almost a touchdown, and I’m very hesitant to make a play on it. If you’re forced to play the Over/Under, however, I’d recommend making a smaller-sized bet on the Over.
There’s no conceivable way for these teams to stop each other. Both rank among the bottom five NFL teams in both Rush and Pass DVOA. Both teams also have starting linebackers on the injury list (Anthony Hitchens for KC, Monty Rice for TEN), which makes their defenses even more vulnerable.
I’ve also seen projections for this total up to 58, which means there’s still positive EV at this absurdly high number. I’m willing to play the Over up to that and won’t be caught dead with an Under 57.5 ticket on our NFL bet of the day.
Tanner McGrath’s 2021 NFL Betting Record: 7-9, -1.3 Units
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 7 Chiefs vs Titans Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 7 Best Bets!
