We are only five weeks through the 2021 NFL season, but we already have a strong list of MVP contenders. There are several quarterbacks having career years, with a few on pace to have historic seasons.
But who is the odds-on favorite to win the award this season? And are there a few sleeper bets you should consider making while there is value on the board?
To help guide you in the NFL MVP predictions series, here are our 2021-22 MVP predictions and betting tips courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. All odds are current as of Thursday, October 14.
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NFL Most Valuable Player Futures Odds
2021 has been the year of the quarterbacks so far. There are nearly a dozen signal callers playing at or near an MVP level. It’s also fantastic to watch the several young quarterbacks emerging as superstars and a few older veterans having the best year of their careers.
But who is the favorite to win the award after five weeks? And who is the best value bet on the board?
Here are the current odds, courtesy of BetMGM:
- Bills QB Josh Allen (+450)
- Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (+500)
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott (+650)
- Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+650)
- Buccaneers QB Tom Brady (+700)
- Rams QB Matthew Stafford (+1100)
- Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (+1200)
- Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+1200)
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+2000)
The top non-quarterback is Derrick Henry (+4000), who has actually seen his odds rise up quite a bit since the start of the season. Henry is having another fantastic year, averaging 128 rushing yards and over 150 total yards per game. If it weren’t for so many quarterbacks having career years, Henry might actually have a chance to win the award.
A few players have seen their odds drop considerably over the last few weeks, including Derek Carr (+8000) and Sam Darnold (+15000). Both of their teams started the season off at 3-0, but have since lost back-to-back games.
With the MVP field being so deep, it’s not surprising to see a bad week or two from a player dramatically shift their odds.
Best NFL Most Valuable Player Bets
Chargers QB Justin Herbert (+650) at BetMGM
You can make a really strong case that Justin Herbert has been the league’s best quarterback over the first five weeks of the season. Not only are his stats incredible, but his come-from-behind wins over the Chiefs and Browns have been spectacular.
No quarterback in the NFL has seen their stock rise more this season than Herbert.
Over the last three weeks, Herbert has scored 12 touchdowns and has zero turnovers. On the season, he’s averaging over 315 passing yards per game while completing 67 percent of his passes. More importantly, the Chargers are sitting atop of the AFC West with a one-game lead.
If the Chargers wind up winning the AFC West and become a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the conference, Herbert will certainly be among the favorites to win the MVP award. He’s been a special player this season, and it seems like he is only getting better by the week.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+1200) at BetMGM
No quarterback has done more with less this season than Lamar Jackson. Not only are the Ravens missing their top three running backs, but the entire offensive line is different now than it was in Week 1. Baltimore has also lost a number of receivers due to injury, but Jackson has kept them afloat.
The Ravens are sitting at 4-1 after five weeks because Jackson has been a superstar. We’ve never seen a player like him dominate both the pass and the run game, as he is averaging over 370 total yards per game this season.
He’s also a really good bet to win the MVP award because he’s now had multiple fourth-quarter comebacks on national television. Believe it or not, that matters to MVP voters. When the lights are the brightest, Jackson has always managed to exceed expectations.
It’s not impossible that Jackson becomes the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards. In fact, he’s actually on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards and rush for over 1,100 yards. He is a special player.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (+2000) at BetMGM
This may very well be the last time you can ever get Patrick Mahomes at 20:1 odds to win the MVP. Yes, the Chiefs are struggling right now with a record of 2-3, but Mahomes is still putting up incredible numbers.
Going into Week 6, Mahomes is on pace to throw for 54 touchdowns, which would be a career-high. He’s already scored 17 touchdowns in five games this season and is averaging nearly 330 total yards. As long as he stays healthy for 16-17 games, he should throw for over 5,000 yards for the second time in his career.
The Chiefs are through the most difficult part of their schedule and have a chance to go on a bit of a run. If they rattle off a bunch of wins and Mahomes continues to put up video game-like numbers, he will certainly be back in the MVP race.
He is just too good of a value to pass up on right now.
NFL Most Valuable Player Award Predictions 2021
Buccaneers QB Tom Brady to Win NFL MVP (+700) at BetMGM
A few weeks ago, Tom Brady was our choice to win the NFL MVP at (+700). With all of his talent at wide receiver and tight end, it just seemed like a lock that he was going to have another great season.
However, those odds have remained the same over the last few weeks despite his elite performances, which just doesn’t quite make sense.
Brady is coming off a five-touchdown day against the Dolphins and is on pace to throw for more than 50 touchdowns this season. He is also averaging an incredible 353.4 passing yards per game, which is 26 yards more than his previous career-high (2011). It feels very likely that he is going to throw for over 5,000 yards and close to 50 touchdowns at the age of 44.
With the Buccaneers likely to be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NFC, it seems highly unlikely that Brady won’t be in the conversation for the award. And if he can post these kinds of numbers all season long at his age, voters are going to have no choice but to pick Brady as the 2021 MVP.
He’s the best bet on the board heading into Week 6.
Thanks for reading our NFL Most Valuable Player & Futures Odds! For more NFL bet picks, check out our NFL gameday odds and NFL bet of the day. If you’re interested in betting on the Super Bowl, check out Marcus Mosher’s best Super Bowl 56 picks.