2021 NLDS Game 1 Predictions | Braves vs Brewers Best Bets & Projections

The Atlanta Braves and Milwaukee Brewers will kick off the NLDS on Friday, October 8. Both teams should be well-rested after winning their divisions rather easily this year, with Atlanta taking the NL East by 6.5 games and Milwaukee clinching the NL Central by five games.

At 88-73, the Braves were the only team to reach the postseason with fewer than 90 wins. They probably would have won 90+ had Ronald Acuna Jr. not torn his ACL in mid-July, prematurely ending his season. Atlanta will miss his presence in the playoffs, although they did a nice job replacing his production by acquiring slugging outfielders Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler at the trade deadline.

The Brewers, meanwhile, cruised to 95 wins despite a middling offense and a second straight down year by former MVP Christian Yelich. Milwaukee’s main strength is its pitching, which posted the third-lowest ERA in the majors this season. They’ll be relying on their arms to shut down Atlanta’s potent lineup in this series.

Which team will start the series off with a win? Let’s dive into our NLDS Game 1 predictions and best bets. All odds are current as of Thursday, October 7.

Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 1 Prediction

Atlanta Braves @ Milwaukee Brewers, October 8, 4:37 PM EST on TBS

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Charlie Morton, Braves (14-6, 3.34 ERA)
  • Corbin Burnes, Brewers (11-5, 2.43 ERA)

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before you make your 2021 NLDS Game 1 bet picks, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and a fantastic $5,000 risk-free welcome bonus to new signups using our promo code GAMEDAY.

Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Braves vs Brewers best bets.

Caesars Sportsbook

Caesars Sportsbook

  • Intuitive App

  • Plenty of Markets & Bet Types

  • VIP Rewards System

Get up to $1,500 FREE

Risk-Free Bet

GAMEDAY15Get bonus

New Customers Only, 21+. T&C’s Apply.

Corbin Burnes has been an absolute stud this year, leading MLB with a 2.43 ERA, 1.63 FIP, and 12.6 K/9 rate. He struggled in his lone start against Atlanta, however, yielding five runs on nine hits in four innings back on July 30. He also ended the season in a bit of a slump by his standards, posting a 4.20 ERA over his final three outings.

None of the players in this Braves lineup have faced Burnes very often, but he has allowed four home runs to their hitters in just 38 at-bats. Two of them came off the bat of Dansby Swanson, who’s 4-for-5 against Burnes lifetime and is looking to break out of a miserable September slump.

Joc Pederson and Austin Riley have also homered against Burnes, so it’s possible Atlanta will get to him for a couple of runs early.

On the flip side, Charlie Morton will get the call for the Braves. Morton is coming off another terrific season and has been a beast in the playoffs, going 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA in 13 playoff appearances (12 starts).

Morton has also owned this Brewers roster in the past, limiting them to a .191 average and .520 OPS over 103 at-bats. Only Yelich has had serious success against Morton, but with just four homers over his last 69 games he isn’t much of a threat in the batter’s box these days.

While Morton’s overall numbers were inflated by a poor start to the season, he posted a 2.88 ERA and 2.92 FIP over his last 25 starts. In the case of Burnes, regular-season dominance doesn’t always translate to the postseason, as we’ve seen recently with Gerrit Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish, and others.

Accordingly, I think Atlanta’s lineup will be able to get to Burnes again, while Morton should have little trouble handling Milwaukee’s pedestrian offense. Give me the Braves in Game 1.

Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 1 Pick: Braves 4, Brewers 1

Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers SP

Will Milwaukee Brewers SP Corbin Burnes bounce back from a rough outing against the Atlanta Braves earlier in the season? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 1 Best Bets

Best Bet: Braves F5 Moneyline (+140) at FanDuel

Wager: 1 Unit

prop bet


Atlanta Braves 1st 5 Innings Moneyline (ATL @ MIL, NLDS Game 1)

FanDuel Sportsbook Welcome OfferRisk-Free Bet Up To $1,000
FanDuel Logo

Bet $20, Payout $48

The Braves have legitimate power all over their lineup and have succeeded in the past against Burnes. They’ll be even more formidable if they can get Pederson and Eddie Rosario into the batting order, but even if only one of them starts they still have plenty of firepower.

Atlanta ranked second among NL teams in homers and slugging and third in runs this year. Bet on this talented lineup scoring runs early against the more inexperienced pitcher in this matchup.

Best Bet: Braves Over 2.5 Team Total (-155) at BetMGM

Wager: 1.55 Units

prop bet


Atlanta Braves Over 2.5 Runs (ATL @ MIL, NLDS Game 1)

BetMGM Sportsbook Welcome OfferGet Up To $1,000 Risk-Free
Bet MGM Logo

Bet $20, Payout $33

As mentioned, the Braves are loaded with power and were one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball this year. They’re also one of the few teams that had success against Burnes this season, which bodes well for their chances in Game 1. Burnes is going to have a tough time shutting down this lineup, making this our MLB bet of the day.

Best Bet: Dansby Swanson To Record 1+ Hits (-135) at FanDuel

Wager: 1.35 Units

Player Prop


Dansby Swanson: To Record 1+ Hits (ATL @ MIL, NLDS Game 1)

FanDuel Sportsbook Welcome OfferRisk-Free Bet Up To $1,000
FanDuel Logo

Bet $20, Payout $35

As noted above, Swanson is 4-for-5 with two home runs against Burnes in his career. You have to be doing something right to have that kind of success against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Regardless of whether or not Swanson has Burnes’s number, he’s worth betting on for at least one hit in Game 1. Despite his September swoon, he still finished the season with a .248 batting average — six points higher than the NL average. All he needs to do is get one hit in four at-bats — which he’s essentially been doing all season — for this bet to cash.

Thanks for reading our Braves vs Brewers NLDS Game 1 Predictions & Best Bets! For more MLB betting tips, check out our MLB gameday odds.

Related articles


Welcome offer Caesars Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,500 FREE

5 stars
Welcome offer BetMGM Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $1,000 Risk-Free

5 stars
Welcome offer BetRivers Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Free

5 stars
Welcome offer Betway Sportsbook promotion

Get Up To $250 Risk Free Bet

5 stars

Schedule & Odds

Top Offers

NBA Betting News

  • Celtics +300 to win NBA Title

    The Boston Celtics are +300 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics are +300 ahead of their home date with the Warriors for Game 6. We will see a considerable odds shift if the Celtics can win Game 6 on their homecourt. Boston was +310 after Game 5.

  • Celtics vs. Warriors over/under listed at 210

    The over/under for Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors is listed at 210, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210, down from the 210.5 it opened at. 60 percent of the public action has come on the over.

  • Warriors -400 to win NBA Championship

    The Golden State Warriors are -400 to win the NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    Golden State now sits at a prohibitive -400 to win the NBA Championship. For comparison, Stephen Curry MVP is -360. Andrew Wiggins, the dark horse to steal the award with a big close-out game, sits at +2000.

  • Celtics +310 to win NBA Championship

    The Boston Celtics are +310 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics peaked as high as high as -230 prior to Game 3 and now sit at an attractive +310. Boston entered the season at +4000. The odds could swing wildly again if Boston wins Game 6.

  • Warriors vs. Celtics over/under listed at 210.5

    The over/under for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics is listed at 210.5, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210.5, down from the 212.5 it opened at. 72 percent of the public action has come on the over.