The Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders will enter their Week 5 matchup in two completely different places. Las Vegas is looking to bounce back from its first loss, while Chicago is struggling to find any sort of consistency.
The Bears opted to give Justin Fields a second consecutive start in Week 4 against the visiting Lions, affording the highly-regarded rookie an opportunity to wash away some of the bad taste of a difficult debut. The plan unfolded in ideal fashion for head coach Matt Nagy, as Fields looked exponentially better while completing 11 of 17 passes for 209 yards and helping lead Chicago to a 24-14 win.
However, the victory didn’t come without cost, as David Montgomery, who’d enjoyed a stellar day with 106 rushing yards and two touchdowns, suffered a knee injury that is expected to keep him sidelined for multiple weeks.
The Raiders, on the other hand, sustained their first loss of the season Monday night against the Chargers. Las Vegas was down 21-0 by halftime, tilting matters much more toward the pass in the second half.
While Derek Carr was able to make things interesting for a time with a pair of third-quarter touchdown passes, Vegas couldn’t slow Austin Ekeler enough late to prevent the Bolts from bleeding the clock.
Despite the stumble, the Raiders continue to look like a much-improved team on both sides of the ball, and the fact that Josh Jacobs was able to return from his two-game absence due to an ankle injury in Monday night’s game was encouraging for the team’s future prospects.
With that said, let’s dive in the NFL pick of the day series, featuring an interesting matchup between the Raiders and Bears.
Please note that all Bears vs Raiders odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 8.
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Bears vs Raiders Prediction
Fields was largely able to right his ship in Week 4 at the expense of a poorly-ranked Lions defense. However, although his team will have a rest advantage over Las Vegas in this Week 5 tilt, he’ll still be facing a much stiffer test.
The Raiders defense had a handful of breakdowns against the Chargers on Monday night, but Chicago’s offense doesn’t operate with anywhere near the same amount of consistent precision as Los Angeles’, nor is Fields anywhere close to the caliber of Justin Herbert quite yet.
Las Vegas has pressured quarterbacks relatively well (nine sacks through four games) and have done an excellent job keeping plays in front of them. The Raiders are allowing a tiny 5.8 yards per attempt, even limiting Herbert, who’d come into Monday night averaging 7.6.
What’s more, the Raiders have not only cramped up opposing passing attacks, but they’ve also made completions hard to come by despite the higher-percentage targets they’re forcing. Vegas is allowing just a 65.2 percent completion rate, ranking the Raiders in the top-half of the league.
They’re giving up just a 64.8 percent catch rate to receivers specifically, which spells trouble for Chicago. Fields relied on Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson for eight of his 11 completions in Week 4, and tight end Cole Kmet has all of two catches for 17 yards on seven targets in the two full games he’s played with Fields under center.
Damien Williams, who appears set to take over lead-back duties for at least Week 5 in Montgomery’s stead, is a highly capable receiver that could serve as a valuable safety valve for Fields. In that regard, the Raiders are middle-of-the-road matchup statistically, allowing an average of five receptions for 35.3 receiving yards to backs over the first four contests.
Nevertheless, it seems like Vegas will force Fields to prove he can beat them downfield, and his combination of inexperience and the Raiders’ typically suffocating coverage will make that unlikely. Given Las Vegas’ own offensive potency, Chicago isn’t going to keep up with a dink-and-dunk attack, which is reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
On the other side, the Raiders will tangle with a Bears defense that’s allowing a respectable 238.0 passing yards per game but at an elevated 7.6 yards per attempt and 11.6 yards per completion, with both of the latter figures ranking them in the bottom-10 in the league.
Derek Carr checks in still averaging a career-high 8.2 yards per attempt despite being slowed Monday night by a Chargers secondary that plays a very similar close-quarters style to that of the Raiders’, and he’s averaging a hefty 12.8 yards per completion as well.
Jacobs’ return gives Vegas three capable backs to work with when also factoring in short-yardage specialist and occasional surprise-chunk-play-purveyor Peyton Barber and the versatile Kenyan Drake.
While Las Vegas’ offensive line has had some trouble opening up consistent running lanes, the Bears aren’t the most prohibitive matchup in that regard, giving up 4.6 adjusted line yards per carry as per Football Outsiders, which gives Chicago a bottom-10 ranking in that regard.
The statistical matchups here point to Carr being able to make some of the downfield plays he was often able to pull off over the first three games of the season, and Jacobs offering some valuable balance with his work on the ground.
Meanwhile, I envision the Raiders making life harder on Fields as the game goes on, and the dry heat factor could also certainly play a factor for a group of Bears players not used to anything remotely similar in their hometown.
Prediction: Raiders 24, Bears 14
The Chicago Bears are making progress with Justin Fields under center, but they still don’t have what it takes to compete with the likes of the Las Vegas Raiders. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Raiders vs Bears Best Bets
Best Bet: Raiders -5.5 (-110) at Caesars
As specified in the game prediction, I see the Raiders doing enough to pull away from Chicago by double digits by game’s end, making this our NFL bet of the day.
Notably, the Bears are just 6-9 ATS as road underdogs since the beginning of Matt Nagy’s head coaching tenure at the start of the 2018 season. The 40.0 percent cover success rate in that sample is an NFC-low figure over that span. Chicago is also 5-10 straight up as a road dog during Nagy’s stint as the head man.
Best Bet: Under 44.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
The Raiders are allowing an average of 25.0 points per contest, but the Bears are putting up just 16.0 per contest and will now be missing Montgomery for this game.
Meanwhile, Chicago has surrendered a respectable 22.8 points per contest and does have an NFL-leading 15 sacks, while Las Vegas has given up 12. That points to the possibility of a few Raiders drives grinding to a halt due to suspect pass protection.
I don’t see either offense exploding here for one of their top-shelf performances by any means, hence the prediction of the Under.
Best Bet: Bears Under 17.5 points (+110) at BetMGM
As alluded to throughout this article thus far, the Bears are likely to struggle to get offensive traction with any degree of consistency here. Chicago put up a measly six points in his Fields’ first start, and although that number boosted to 24 against Detroit, that came against a much lower caliber of competition Chicago will face in this road matchup.
Bears vs Raiders Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: (+280) at BetMGM
- Raiders -5.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 Points (-110)
This same-game parlay at BetMGM allows us to incorporate two of the three predictions listed previously at one very appealing price.
Thank you for reading our Bears vs Raiders predictions! Consider checking out our NFL Week 5 Best Bets.
