In a noteworthy non-conference intrastate rivalry matchup, the Iowa State Cyclones host the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Unlike many years where one team has a lopsided advantage, in this year’s game both teams are closely matched. Iowa is the No. 10 team in the country, while Iowa State is ranked just ahead at No. 9. As a result, Iowa State at home is only a 4.5-point favorite in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.
Below, I go over how I think the game will go and how to bet it in the NCAAF game day pick of the day series.
Best Bet: Iowa (+175) at BetRivers
For in-depth analysis of this Hawkeyes vs Cyclones pick of the day and others, continue reading.
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Iowa vs Iowa State Prediction
What makes the Iowa/Iowa State game tricky to bet on is how to handicap each team’s week 1 performances. Iowa State played a cupcake in Northern Iowa and only won 16-10 as a 28.5-point favorite. Iowa hosted No. 17 Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite and won 34-6.
Before the season started, Iowa State was set as a 5-point favorite against Iowa. After last week’s slate, the betting markets have barely moved that number, as they are currently a 4.5-point favorite.
In my opinion, the betting markets are correct in assuming we will see a low-scoring game as the total has been set at only 46 points. However, the odds do not reflect how good Iowa’s defense is.
Despite hosting an Indiana offense at full strength last week, Iowa limited Indiana to only 6 points. This included holding Hoosiers QB Michael Penix Jr. to 14 completions on 31 passing attempts, 156 passing yards, and three interceptions.
Iowa State’s QB Brock Purdy completed 21 passes on 26 attempts, but compiled only 199 passing yards. While this was a disappointing performance, Purdy should bounce back in future starts. However, against a stout Hawkeyes secondary, expect Purdy to have some trouble this weekend.
Betting Pick: Iowa 20, Iowa State 14
Iowa vs Iowa State Best Bets
Best Bet: Iowa Moneyline (+175) at BetRivers
Wager: .75 Units
In my opinion, Saturday’s game is a tossup where the Cyclones should only be slight favorites. That is why I like Iowa as a relatively heavy moneyline underdog at (+175) at BetRivers. Iowa’s spread at +4.5 is tempting as it should be a close, low-scoring game, but the pot of gold of (+175) is too hard to resist.
Year after year, Iowa’s formula is the same. They have a lackluster offense and a strong defense. Against an Iowa State team that struggled to score in Week 1, the Hawkeyes should do well.
Best Bet: Iowa State Team Total Under 25 (-110) at WynnBET
Wager: .75 Units
if Iowa wins or covers the spread, Iowa State is likely to have fewer than 25 points. In the rare event of Saturday’s game being an offensive shootout, the Hawkeyes are unlikely to give up 26 or more points and win.
Additionally, Iowa’s weak offense could do poorly against Iowa State’s defense, yet Iowa State could be held to fewer than 25 points. That is why betting on Iowa State to score under 25 points at (-110) is a better bet than either the Iowa +4.5 spread or under 46 points at the same odds.