Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today, 8/27/21. All odds for August 27 MLB bet picks were obtained from PointsBet.
After cashing another bet on Tuesday, we’re now up over eight units by betting just three games a week. Our patience and selectivity are paying off, so let’s see if we can end the week on a high note with one of my best MLB bets today.
MLB Pick Today
For in-depth analysis of this MLB pick of the day, continue reading.
Season Betting Record
- Overall: 33-21 (+8.07 units)
- Team Totals: 12-7 (+2.62 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 17-8-3 (+7.29 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-2 (-1.35 units)
Sportsbook Play of the Day
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MLB Bet Of The Day 8/27/21
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Probable Pitchers: STL LHP J.A. Happ @ PIT LHP Dillon Peters
For my MLB betting tip today, I’m looking to fade Dillon Peters. If you don’t recognize the name, you shouldn’t. He has a career 5.56 ERA, 5.67 FIP, and 1.59 WHIP over five seasons, so he’s not very good.
Peters has pitched surprisingly well in his first two starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates this year, the most recent of which came against these same St. Louis Cardinals. It’s only two starts, however, so I’m leaning on his larger track record here, especially now that the Cardinals’ lineup is more familiar with him.
Although Peters has a 1.86 ERA in his first two starts, his 5.01 xFIP indicates that he’s been getting lucky. He’s struck out 14.3% of batters and walked 9.5% of batters. If you do that consistently, you’re going to pay in the big leagues.
Peters is also a lefty who will face a predominately right-handed lineup tonight. Righties have ravaged Peters for a .288/.360/.530 batting line throughout his career, which bodes well for Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and co. For their part, St. Louis has better splits against lefties, on the road, and in the second half this year.
Given that, I like the Cardinals to score at least three runs in the first five innings against Peters tonight. He’s going to walk batters and put plenty of guys on base, so we just need a couple of clutch knocks to cash my MLB betting pick of the day.
Baseball Bet Of The Day: St. Louis Cardinals Over 2.5 Runs In 1st 5 Innings (-105)
Wager: 1.05 Units
Thanks for reading our August 27 Best MLB Bet Of The Day! For more MLB prop betting tips, check out our August 27 Best MLB Prop Bets.