UFC 265 Lewis vs Gane Prediction: Bet Picks For Interim UFC Heavyweight Title Main Event

Last Updated: Aug 8, 2021

Here are Taylor Tarter’s UFC 265 predictions, including UFC 265 bet picks for Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane.

UFC 265 Lewis vs Gane Prediction: Bet Picks For Interim UFC Heavyweight Title Main Event

Derrick Lewis vs Ciryl Gane Prediction & Bet Pick

Derrick Lewis To Defeat Ciryl Gane (+290)

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UFC veteran Derrick Lewis (25-7-0, 1 NC) will face up-and-comer Ciryl Gane (9-0-0) in an exciting Interim Heavyweight Championship bout at UFC 265 in Houston this weekend.

Gane’s nine wins are distributed equally between KOs/TKOs, submissions, and decisions, while 20 of Lewis’s 25 wins have come via knockout. Despite his inexperience and lack of finishes, Gane should make this fight interesting.

While Lewis may land some heavy shots on his opponent, Gane appears to be more active. He lands nearly twice as many strikes per minute (5.13) as Lewis (2.59), and while he absorbs more strikes as well, his 63% defense rate bodes well for him being able to take some shots.

Neither fighter is much of a threat when it comes to takedowns, although Gane has a 100% takedown defense rate. The French fighter has a handful of submission wins as well, so if the fight goes to the mat he has a clear advantage.

One statistic that stands out is that Lewis has a lower significant strike rate than Gane despite being known for his knockout power. Perhaps this has to do with Gane having a small sample size of fights compared to Lewis. Maybe it has more to do with Lewis’s fights lasting six minutes shorter on average than Gane’s fights, as Lewis has 0.52 knockdowns per 15 minutes versus Gane’s 0.33 knockdowns per 15 minutes.

Lewis is a +290 underdog, is fighting in his hometown of Houston, and has been hovering around the championship for years. Bet on a determined and hungry Lewis to win in front of the home crowd.

Ciryl Gane vs Derrick Lewis Prop Bet Pick

Under 4.5 Rounds (-175)

As a headline pay-per-view fight, this will be a five-round fight, but there is only a slim chance it goes past round three.

Lewis has only had one fight extend past the third round in his career. Granted, he has not had many fights with the opportunity for five rounds, but only six of his 32 professional bouts have even lasted until the end of the third round. Meanwhile, Gane has seen three of his nine fights end in a decision, and two of those contests were five-round headliner fights.

Both of these fighters have serious knockout power, and it’s incredibly likely that the referee calls an end to this fight before the fourth round. Take the under here, and enjoy an exciting fight.

UFC 265 Event Schedule

  • UFC 265 card event date: Saturday, August 7
  • UFC 265 early preliminary fights: 6 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass
  • UFC 265 preliminary fights: 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2 & ESPN+
  • UFC 265 main event start: 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV


Taylor Tarter

Taylor Tarter, a lifelong baseball fan, covers baseball, DFS baseball, and baseball betting for, and hosts the podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball (@fastballpod on Twitter). He is a student of sabermetrics, which drives his podcast and his writing. Taylor has over a decade of fantasy baseball experience, including being a multi-time league champion in various formats. And finally... Go Nats!

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