Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction: 2021 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Bet Tips & Pick

Here are The Game Day’s predictions and bets for the 2021 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference First Round series in our Heat vs Bucks preview.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction: 2021 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Bet Tips & Pick

Miami Heat 2020-2021 Season Recap

The Heat have flown under the radar this season despite playing in the Finals just seven short months ago. Some were quick to write them off after their 7-14 start, but they recovered to finish 40-32 and snag the 6-seed. Miami made up for its poor start with a torrid finish, winning 12 of its last 16 games and avoiding the play-in tournament.

Most of the Heat’s issues were on the offensive end, as they finished with the sixth-fewest points per game and struggled to get consistent scoring from players other than Jimmy Butler. Their defense was elite, though, yielding the fifth-fewest points per game. Miami remains well-coached by Erik Spoelstra, and is a solid all-around team with great depth off the bench.

Milwaukee Bucks 2020-2021 Season Recap

The Bucks slipped to third in the Eastern Conference after finishing first the last two years, winding up three games behind the Philadelphia 76ers and two games back of the Brooklyn Nets. It was still a successful regular season overall for Milwaukee, which benefited from the presence of new point guard Jrue Holiday. Giannis Antetokounmpo produced another MVP-caliber campaign, averaging 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game.

Between those two and Khris Middleton, the Bucks led the NBA in points per game this year while playing at the second-fastest pace. Their defense was solid as well, making them one of the top teams in the NBA. Like Miami, Milwaukee also finished the season on a tear, going 14-6 over its last 20 games.


Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Matchup

This will be a rematch of last season’s conference semifinals, which Miami stunningly won in five games. Since then, the Bucks have added Holiday and continued to be the superior team during the regular season. Milwaukee also won the season series this year, 2-1, even with two of the games being played in Miami.

Holiday in particular should prove to be a difference-maker in the postseason. He’s had a full year to run the offense now and has helped take some of the pressure off Antetokounmpo. Holiday may not post the biggest stats, but he makes the Bucks drastically better when he’s on the court.


Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks Win Series 4-2

The Bucks were the better team last year, and that’s even more true this year. They’ll be out to avenge their disappointing loss to the Heat last year, and they’re better equipped to do so with Holiday on board. Miami’s defense and Butler will keep this series relatively close, but Milwaukee is too good for another upset to occur.


Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Bet Pick

Milwaukee Bucks To Win Series (-275)

prop bet

-275

Bucks To Defeat Heat In 2021 NBA Playoffs 1st Round

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Milwaukee’s role players are now on par with Miami’s, while Giannis is still the best player on the floor. The Bucks have improved since last year, but the same cannot be said for the Heat, who will be unable to take down Milwaukee two years in a row.

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Schedule & Odds

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NBA Betting News

  • Celtics +300 to win NBA Title

    The Boston Celtics are +300 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics are +300 ahead of their home date with the Warriors for Game 6. We will see a considerable odds shift if the Celtics can win Game 6 on their homecourt. Boston was +310 after Game 5.

  • Celtics vs. Warriors over/under listed at 210

    The over/under for Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors is listed at 210, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210, down from the 210.5 it opened at. 60 percent of the public action has come on the over.

  • Warriors -400 to win NBA Championship

    The Golden State Warriors are -400 to win the NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    Golden State now sits at a prohibitive -400 to win the NBA Championship. For comparison, Stephen Curry MVP is -360. Andrew Wiggins, the dark horse to steal the award with a big close-out game, sits at +2000.

  • Celtics +310 to win NBA Championship

    The Boston Celtics are +310 to win the 2021-22 NBA Championship, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The Celtics peaked as high as high as -230 prior to Game 3 and now sit at an attractive +310. Boston entered the season at +4000. The odds could swing wildly again if Boston wins Game 6.

  • Warriors vs. Celtics over/under listed at 210.5

    The over/under for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics is listed at 210.5, per BettingPros consensus odds.

    Betting Impact:
    The total for this contest sits at 210.5, down from the 212.5 it opened at. 72 percent of the public action has come on the over.