UFC 262 Bet Picks & Predictions For Oliveira vs Chandler & Ferguson vs Dariush

Last Updated: May 16, 2021

Here are Taylor Tarter’s UFC 262 Bet Tips, including predictions and picks for Oliveira vs Chandler’s Lightweight Championship headlining bout and Ferguson vs Dariush, which could highly determine the next challenger to the winner of UFC 262’s main event.

I remember watching the first Ultimate Fighter with my dad in 2005, and being amazed at what I saw. Over the next six years, I was an occasional UFC viewer, but never a die-hard, until I began studying Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in 2011. Having an understanding of what was going on in the octagon drew me into the UFC even more, and the rest, as they say, was history.

Anyway … on to the UFC 262 analysis … The UFC 261 pay-per-view saw Kamaru Usman and Valentina Shevchenko continue to make their cases for GOAT status, and Rose Namajunas defeat Weili Zhang for the Strawweight Championship.

Although UFC 262 has only one championship fight on the card, there are several fights that should result in exciting matchups. The Lightweight Championship is vacant after Khabib Nurmagomedov retired, so a fight between Charles Oliveira (29-8-0) and Michael Chandler (22-5-0) will decide the new champion.

Chandler was a three-time Bellator Lightweight Champion, and convincingly defeated Dan Hooker in Round 1 at UFC 257, in his first UFC fight.

While Oliveira has never held a championship belt, he does hold several UFC records including the most submission wins at 14, and the most finishes at 16. He also has earned 16 fight bonuses, 10 of which are “performance of the night" bonuses, which is the most in the UFC. Oliveira is on an eight-fight win streak, dating back to 2018.

The main card also features a fight between Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush. Ferguson (26-4-0) is a former interim Lightweight Champion. His awkward and unpredictable fight style makes him an interesting and exciting fighter to watch, but also a difficult fighter for others to face. Dariush enters the bout on a six-fight win streak, but will have his hands full with Ferguson. This fight could determine the next No. 1 contender for the Lightweight Championship.

UFC 262 Bet Picks & Predictions For Oliveira vs Chandler & Ferguson vs Dariush

Charles Oliveira, shown here in 2020, fights in the main event of UFC 262 against Michael Chandler. What do Taylor’s UFC 262 Bet Picks say is the best wager for this Lightweight Championship? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

UFC 262 Bet Picks & Predictions For Oliveira vs Chandler, Ferguson vs Dariush

  • UFC 262 card event date: Saturday, May 15
  • UFC 262 early preliminary fights: 6 p.m., UFC Fight Pass
  • UFC 262 Preliminary fights: 8 p.m. on ESPN
  • UFC 262 main card start: 10 p.m. ET on PPV


All UFC 262 bet tips and picks are from UFC 262 odds listed at PointsBet. (PointsBet has a welcome offer of 2 Risk-Free Bets of up to $2,000 for new players only. Claim this welcome promotion today and wager on UFC 262 fights, including Oliveira vs Chandler, and any other futures bets.)

Michael Chandler (+108) to defeat Charles Oliveira

Chandler dominated Dan Hooker in his UFC debut. He is hungry to win again, especially for the Lightweight title.

Chandler is a well-rounded fighter, having won 10 fights by knockout and seven by submission. Although Oliveira has a slightly higher takedown average, Chandler’s 80% takedown defense rate should keep him off the mat against a dangerous submission artist – Oliveira has 19 submission victories.

Oliveira tends to pick his spots to strike more than Chandler, who is a much more aggressive fighter. Oliveira averages 3.22 strikes per minute, while Chandler averages 4.29 significant strikes per minute. Chandler also absorbs a lot of shots as well (3.76/minute), but incredibly has only lost two of his 27 professional fights by knockout.

This matchup pits two fighters of different styles against each other, but Chandler’s tenacity, strike rate, and defense will give the underdog a win at UFC 262.

Tony Ferguson (+125) to defeat Beneil Dariush

Beneil Dariush and Tony Ferguson are both well-rounded fighters, but there are definite stylistic differences in Ferguson vs Dariush. Most of Dariush’s wins have come from submission, while 50% of Ferguson’s wins have come by KO/TKO. Dariush averages 1.80 takedowns per 15 minutes, compared to .60 takedowns per 15 minutes by Ferguson.

The good news for Ferguson bettors is that he defends takedowns well, stuffing them 77% of the time. Where Ferguson has a significant edge in this fight is in significant strikes landed. He averages 5.51 significant strikes per minute, which is nearly two more significant strikes per minute than Dariush.

Ferguson also defends significant strikes better than Dariush. Ferguson needs a win after two disappointing losses, he presents the biggest challenge Dariush has faced in his career, and he will earn the upset victory.

Michael Chandler defeats Charles Oliveira in Round 2

(Not Yet Available)

Both Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira average just under seven minutes of fight time, which means they rarely make it past the second round. Oliveira has made it past the second round only nine times in 38 professional fights, and Chandler has had seven fights make it past the second round in 27 professional fights.

Between them, they have 46 first or second-round finishes, and only 6.5% of their combined wins have come from a decision.

On one hand, this is a five-round championship bout, so the fighters may play it safe and try to be patient. On the other hand, both fighters are aggressive with takedowns, and Chandler is a very tenacious striker.

The fighters’ histories tell us they will both be looking for an early finish here, and this fight will not make it out of the second round. Michael Chandler will pick up a Round 2 win and end the night as the UFC Lightweight Champion.


Taylor Tarter

Taylor Tarter, a lifelong baseball fan, covers baseball, DFS baseball, and baseball betting for, and hosts the podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball (@fastballpod on Twitter). He is a student of sabermetrics, which drives his podcast and his writing. Taylor has over a decade of fantasy baseball experience, including being a multi-time league champion in various formats. And finally... Go Nats!

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