Najee Harris Draft Bet For The 2021 NFL Draft: Will RB Be Drafted In Round 1?

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With the 2021 NFL Draft approaching, here’s our tip on any Najee Harris Draft Position Bet opportunities that may be available for 2021 NFL Draft futures betting. Odds are from BetMGM as of Saturday, April 17th at 11:53 PM.


Read our full 2021 NFL Draft Guide for more betting tips, our 2021 NFL Mock Draft, our 2021 NFL Draft Player Scouting Reports, and more analysis and tips.


Najee Harris Draft Bet For 2021 NFL Draft

Make this wager at BetMGM right now.

Najee Harris Draft Position: 29.5

  • Over 1.90 (-111)/Under 1.90 (-111)

Najee Harris is widely considered to be the top running back prospect in this class, but with the way this position has been devalued in recent years, will he be selected in the first round?

Last year, only one running back was selected in the first round: Clyde Edwards-Helaire at 32nd overall. This was a surprise pick because D’Andre Swift and Jonathan Taylor were both projected to be selected before CEH. We could see a similar situation this year with Travis Etienne.

Etienne is a terrific receiving back which could ultimately vault him ahead of Harris in this year’s draft. This is one of the risks with taking the under on 29.5 as Harris’s draft position. It’s unlikely that more than one back is taken in the first round, which means that if Etienne goes first, there’s a good chance that Harris will fall to the second.

Recent history suggests that if Harris does go in the first round, it likely will be outside the Top 15 picks. He’s not as highly touted as recent top 10 picks like Saquon BarkleyEzekiel Elliott, and Leonard Fournette, so we can safely project that Harris falls past pick 15. Looking at the draft board from picks 15-30, I see four teams with a need at running back: the Dolphins (18th), Jets (23rd), Steelers (24th), and Bills (30th).

The Dolphins have Myles Gaskin, who had a strong rookie season. They also had several opportunities to select a running back in last year’s stacked class, but they decided not to, which tells me that this team does not want to invest premium draft capital in a running back. The Dolphins also pick at the top of the second round (36th), so it’s more likely that they target a back at that pick.

The Jets badly need a running back, with their current depth chart consisting of the likes of La’Mical Perine and Tevin Coleman, but this team has holes throughout their roster. They also just hired Mike LaFleur, brother of Packers’ head coach Matt LaFleur, as offensive coordinator. LaFleur comes from the Shanahan coaching tree and we’ve seen how they’ve refused to use high draft capital on running backs. Like the Dolphins, the Jets pick at the top of the second round (34th). They can take a running back there instead.

The Steelers and Bills both need running backs, but these are two pass-heavy offenses. It would be poor asset management to use a first-rounder on Harris because he’s the type of back that needs to dominate touches in an offense. That’s unlikely to happen in Pittsburgh in Buffalo. Both of these teams also have picks in the second round to use on a back.

The best part of this prop is that Harris can still be taken in the first round and you would win the bet. This is one of my favorite draft props. Running back is a devalued position. I don’t see Harris selected in the first round. Hammer the over.

Pick: OVER 1.90 (-111)

Player Prop

-111

Najee Harris Selected After Pick 30 (2021 NFL Draft)

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