With almost a quarter of the season completed, both the 49ers and the Panthers have a chance of winning their division. Even though Carolina has a 1-3 record, they are only a half-game behind Tampa Bay and Atlanta in the NFC South standings.
I am approaching my wagers on this game from the angle that there is more parity between these two teams than meets the eye.
Below, read up on the odds and reasoning behind my San Francisco vs Carolina best bets and betting picks for Week 5.
49ers vs Panthers Odds
The odds for this weekend’s game are not a surprise to me.
Carolina has played weak teams, and has a losing record. San Francisco has a 2-2 record, but a +6.3 average scoring margin, which is the fifth-best in the NFL.
The total looks low, but at 39 points, it arguably may be too high as both teams have two of the worst offenses in the NFL.
49ers vs Panthers Implied Totals
49ers 22.75, Panthers 16.25
The second most common team total in the NFL is 17, while the third most common is 24. Having the 49ers at around a point below 24, and the Panthers at three quarters of a point below 17 means the oddsmakers expect each team to score slightly below key numbers.
Carolina, in particular, isn’t expected to do much on offense, as only 29.9% of NFL teams score 16 or fewer points.
49ers vs Panthers Pick of the Day
Read more on this 49ers vs Panthers bet below.
49ers vs Panthers Prediction
Panthers 20, 49ers 17
The Carolina Panthers are close to being regarded as the worst team in the NFL right now. According to the Sagarin ratings, only the Jets, Falcons, Seahawks, Bears, and Texans are worse.
Based on those same power ratings, the 49ers should win by nine points on a neutral field. Taking the analytics aside, I don’t see how San Francisco wins by a touchdown or more on the road, even against Carolina.
Panthers QB Baker Mayfield has the worst QBR in the NFL, but 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has the sixth worst. If Carolina can establish a running game behind Christian McCaffrey, they could either sneak by with a victory, or at least keep the game close.
If you look at the Panthers three losses, they lost by more than three points just once — last week against the Cardinals. They beat the Saints 22-14, and only lost to the Browns by two points, and the Giants by three points.
The 49ers should win on Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose. I would be surprised if they covered the spread.
49ers vs Panthers Bet Tips
Here are some 49ers vs Panthers betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- 49ers are 2-2 against the spread in 2022.
- Panthers are 1-3 ATS in 2022.
- 9.3% of games are decided by exactly seven points, which is relevant for the -6.5 49ers spread.
49ers vs Panthers Best Bets
Panthers +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Carolina shouldn’t be favored to win, but making them nearly seven-point dogs at home against a struggling 49ers team is an overreaction to what we have seen so far.
Baker Mayfield doesn’t inspire much confidence at the quarterback position, but neither does Jimmy Garoppolo. With a total of only 39 points, the 49ers would need to limit Carolina to 16 points or fewer to cover the spread.
I like the Panthers and would bet them up to +5.
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Panthers to Win by 1-6 Points (+510) at BetRivers Sportsbook
If you are going by my theory that the Panthers should cover in a low-scoring game, what is the best way to bet on them winning outright?
You could bet on their +235 moneyline or bet on them at +510 to win by exactly 1-6 points. Unless Baker Mayfield plays much better than he has been all season, if the Panthers were to win, they should win by less than a touchdown.
Before placing this bet, get the best 49ers promo codes.