On Friday and Saturday, we have 10 great conference championship games. Friday might have the Pac-12 Championship Game, but the highlight is Saturday.
After a long regular season, I have a lot of data for making my best CFB conference championship picks. Below, I go over my four best bets.
All college football odds are current as of noon ET on Tuesday, Nov. 22, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.
Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 90-94-4, -2.4% Return on Investment, +2.6% Closing Line Value
CFB Conference Championship Best Bet: Kansas State vs TCU
Kansas State +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
TCU is like a cat with nine lives. Every time that they are supposed to lose, they manage to escape defeat.
The Horned Frogs might be undefeated, but their game logs aren’t nearly as impressive as the two other undefeated teams in Georgia and Michigan.
Best CFB Conference Championship Lines
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Two weeks ago, they only beat Baylor, 29-28, and the week before, they beat Texas, 17-10. They also beat unimpressive Texas Tech and West Virginia teams by only 10 points.
Of their 11 games against FBS opponents, TCU has only won three of them in blowouts.
Kansas State has been decent this season, and they almost beat TCU earlier this year. They may have lost that game 38-28, but at halftime, they were up 28-17.
In the rematch this weekend, Kansas State should win, and I would either bet the moneyline up to +110 or the spread up to +1. (Read our full Big 12 Championship prediction.)
CFB Conference Championship Best Bet: Toledo vs Ohio
Ohio +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
After Ohio proved itself as the best MAC team this season, Toledo is favored to beat Ohio by nearly a field goal. I am not surprised as the Bobcats have been underrated all season.
Ohio’s QB Kurtis Rourke might be out with a knee injury, but their run game is very strong. Last week against Bowling Green, Ohio won 38-14 as a 5.5-point favorite.
This was because the Bobcats ran on 72% of their plays.
- See Kevin’s complete breakdown of MAC Championship Game best bets.
The week before against Ball State, when Rourke got injured, Ohio had a rushing play percentage of 65.7%. Rourke might be sidelined, but the Bobcats have adjusted.
Toledo’s defense is allowing four yards per carry, which is only slightly better than the median FBS defense. Recently, the Rockets have been better against the run, but they also lost their last two games as heavy favorites.
Based on Ohio having a strong running game and Toledo being overrated, Ohio is a great bet on Saturday.
CFB Conference Championship Best Bet: Fresno State vs Boise State
Fresno State +3.5 (-110) at BetRivers Sportsbook
Fresno State Moneyline (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: .75 Units Each
Boise State is frequently the most overrated Mountain West team. Since their epic run in the 2000s and 2010s, they have almost always been the favorite to win the conference.
For Saturday’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game, BSU might seem like a lock against Fresno State. In their one meeting this season at home, Boise State won 40-20 as a -10.5-point favorite.
That loss doesn’t scare me away from the Bulldogs.
Fresno State was 1-4 after that loss, then they ended the season with a seven-game winning streak, all against MWC teams. With a suffocating defense, the Bulldogs have been the best Mountain West team since mid-October.
Boise State may seem like a smart pick at home, but Fresno State as a slim underdog is worth a spread and moneyline bet.
CFB Conference Championship Best Bet: Clemson vs UNC
Under 63.5 Points (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I have no idea who is going to win between Clemson and North Carolina. The Tigers should win, but they have underperformed in several spots this season.
The Tar Heels also have looked vulnerable this season.
Rather than picking a side, I am betting on the point total going Under 63.5 points.
North Carolina has an explosive offense, which averages 35.4 points per game. Clemson, on the other hand, has a defense that averages 21.7 points allowed per game.
- Read our full ACC Championship Game prediction.
There have been several times this season when North Carolina’s offense has been overvalued in point totals. Last week’s 30-27 loss against NC State only went Over a 56-point total because it went to double-overtime.
The week before, only 38 points were scored in the Georgia Tech game, which had a point total of 63 points. Even in their 36-34 win against Wake Forest, the total went Under as it was set at 79 points.
It might be a sweat on Saturday night, but the Under should cash.
How To Bet College Football Conference Championships
Don’t bet on most games
Most of the conference championship lines are close to what the actual result will be. This is because people have been betting into CFB Conference Championship futures for months.
In rematches, back the loser of the first meeting
Many CFB Conference Championships are between teams that have played each other already. In those spots, look to back the team that lost the first game, as they might be underrated in the rematch.