The Week 1 NFL prop rundown features a few potent passing attacks, and several vulnerable defenses to take advantage of. I also highlight a defense ready to dominate and go all-in against the most terrible team in the league.
Emotion can spur success in the Monday night game, and a needed successful outing for a downtrodden QB is also in the mix among our wide season-opening range of NFL props.
Week 1 NFL Prop Bets
Note: NFL Week 1 odds used for prop bets are current as of Wednesday, Sept. 7.
Dolphins @ Chargers: MIA Over 23.5 Total Points (-125) at DraftKings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
This matchup has the highest projected total on the Sunday slate at 51 points. The Chargers are not going to dominate the scoring over Miami, which has the most explosive wide receiver duo in the league and can answer anything Los Angeles puts up.
The projected point total for the Dolphins is too low with Tua Tagovailoa healthy to open the season. Miami averaged 23.4 points per game in 2022 last year and should vault over that number in the season opener.
Raheem Mostert, who averaged 4.9 yards per carry in ’22, is also available and not banged up to start the season, which is an added offensive bonus for the visitors.
Seahawks vs Rams: SEA First To Score/Moneyline (+125) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Rams have usually given the Seahawks a tough time, as Pete Carroll actually has a losing record against Los Angeles (13-15). But these are just not anywhere near the same Rams that used to rattle Russell Wilson.
Where have you gone, Patrick Ramsey and Leonard Floyd? Geno Smith lines up with what may be the deepest offense of the Carroll era, and possibly the best WR trio in the league now that Jaxon Smith-Njigba (wrist) is ready for the season opener.
Los Angeles has no Cooper Kupp and will struggle to score points against an improved Seattle defense, while the Rams’ secondary will be torched early and often.
Commanders vs Cardinals: WAS To Win Both Halves (+145) at DraftKings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The unanimous bottom team in all NFL Power Rankings looks so bad heading into the opener, that seeing this wager at plus money seems almost too good to be true. Joshua Dobbs, who had two TDs and three interceptions in eight games over three years, faces one of the NFL’s best defensive fronts.
I expect Washington to totally control the flow of the game, and a solid ground attack will ease some pressure on Sam Howell as the Commanders’ defense makes life easy for the offense with good field position throughout the day.
Jaguars @ Colts: Each Team To Score 1+ TD In Each Half (+155) at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Jacksonville offense is about to take another step into prominence this season. Indianapolis allowed an AFC-high 25.1 points per game last season and won’t look any better in the 2023 season opener.
But the Jacksonville defense will force it to get into some shootouts this year, or in the case of the Colts, allow the opposition to effectively play catch-up. Anthony Richardson will immediately put his dual-threat skills on display, and even though his accuracy may be scattershot, he will move Indianapolis’ offense well enough to get in the end zone in both halves.
Giants vs Cowboys: NYG Under 20.5 Total Points (-108) at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
New York has certainly made some necessary upgrades to its passing game. But early progress will be stifled against a top-level defense that added veteran star cornerback Stephon Gilmore to its secondary.
Dallas has owned this rivalry in recent seasons, winning 11 of the last 12 matchups. Micah Parsons had two sacks in the last meeting and will lead the considerable pressure applied to Daniel Jones in key passing situations, while Dan Quinn, the same defensive coordinator of the two Seattle Super Bowl teams, schemes up ways to contain Saquon Barkley.
Jets vs Bills: NYJ Over 22.5 Total Points (-110) at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
This matchup is heavily about the vibes, and they will be on the Jets’ side in front of a maniacal home crowd in their biggest regular season game in such a long time, I can’t even recall one for comparison’s sake.
Even against a formidable Buffalo defense, the Jets need to leap over the projected point total to win, which they will do. The Bills still may go further than their rejuvenated rivals in the postseason and will fight hard to prevail on Monday night, but for now, New York needs this win more than they do.
- Read up on more of our favorite NFL Week 1 Bets.
Week 1 NFL Player Props
J.K. Dobbins: Over 75+ Rushing Yards (+200) vs Texans at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
Dobbins slipped too far in fantasy football drafts this preseason, and now he is being disrespected in prop projections. Over 57.5 yards at -115 just doesn’t stir any wagering enthusiasm for me.
In the last five games of the 2022 campaign, including the playoffs, Dobbins averaged 92 rushing yards per game. He is healthy to open the season and will overcome expectations in the opener, which is why he is also on my list of Week 1 fantasy football sleepers.
Chris Olave: Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Titans at DraftKings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The buzz out of New Orleans suggests that the second-year wideout could be primed to elevate his performances to new lofty levels with Derek Carr at QB. Olave had 50-plus receiving yards in all eight home games last year and now has more obvious upside with his QB upgrade.
Tennessee can be tough up front, but can certainly be exposed on the back end of the defense. Their best WR will lead the way offensively in Carr’s New Orleans debut.
Russell Wilson: Over 221.5 Passing Yards (-115) vs Raiders at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
Las Vegas had the second-worst pass defense in the NFL last season, and the secondary does not look much improved heading into the 2023 opener. Sean Payton is ready to attack the Raiders’ weakness as he looks to get off to a winning start in Denver.
Wilson obviously needs to get out of the gate with a quality showing, and the matchup and retooled offense under Payton set up well here for Week 1 NFL betting. Look for Payton to incorporate what works best for his new QB, helping him out with a solid running game to pave the way for play-action downfield strikes.
Brian Robinson Jr.: Anytime TD Scorer/Commanders To Win (+185) vs Cardinals at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
Robinson is at +150 as an Anytime TD Scorer, yet I like this wager even better for the payoff. I detailed why Washington will run smoothly on offense in the Game Props section, and Robinson, who was hindered by injuries last season, will open the new season in good health with a rather easy road to the end zone in this matchup.
Alexander Mattison: Anytime TD Scorer (-110) vs Buccaneers at DraftKings
WAGER: 1 Unit
Not many observers seem to be excited about Mattison, because he won’t be as explosive as Dalvin Cook was. But let’s not forget that he was considered one of the top backup RBs in the NFL and the Minnesota front office handed the 25-year-old the starting job without any proven competition.
Mattison is the rushing finisher on offensive drives for a good offense that should get off to a strong start in a very winnable season opener at home.
Trevor Lawrence: Over 250+ Alternate Passing Yards (-135) @ Colts at DraftKings
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Jaguars’ rising star QB has a bevy of weapons to overwhelm the Colts’ back seven with. Unveiling a connection with Calvin Ridley will make for a prolific opening performance.
Lawrence has 746 completions, the second-most ever for a player in his first two NFL seasons. He will rack up a good amount more on his way to toppling this Alternate Prop.
Find Top NFL Props
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