We had a strong start to the 2023-24 NFL Playoffs, going 3-1 on the player props side here. A few intriguing upsets led to the Divisional round having some one-sided matchups on paper, which should open up some value on the player props here.
In this article, we’ll track down some of my favorite prop bets for the Divisional round, but you can also check out our Divisional Predictions if you’re looking for other playoff NFL content.
NFL Divisional Round Player Props
NFL Divisional Round odds used for prop bets are from DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted) and current as of Wednesday, Jan. 17.
Jayden Reed (GB) Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Wager: 1 Unit
From looking through the player prop offerings over at FanDuel, it certainly seems like the perception is that Green Bay will get absolutely smoked by the San Francisco 49ers in this game.
That’s not to say that they won’t, but there is definitely some value in a couple of lines, and Reed’s goose egg against the Cowboys in the Wild Card round certainly gives his line some value. It was the first game all season for Reed that he hadn’t had a catch, and I expect him to bounce back nicely here.
The 49ers have struggled at times against slot receivers this season, as Deommodore Lenoir has been taken advantage of to the tune of SF allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to slot WRs this year.
Sam LaPorta (DET) Over 16.5 Longest Reception (-105)
Wager: 1 Unit
Most of the time, I’m going to target wide receivers for longest reception plays, but in this case, we’re getting a nice number on a player that’s hit this line in 11/17 games this season.
Before you continue reading Sam’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Divisional Round player props:
LaPorta wasn’t expected to play in the opening playoff game, but he grinded hard and got back to practice in time to suit up against the Rams in the Wild Card game, scoring a touchdown on a few catches.
He definitely looked a bit limited out there after suffering the hyperextended knee and bone bruise in Week 18, but the good news is that he finished the game and now should be able to put in a mostly full week of practice leading up to the game against the Buccaneers this week.
The Buccaneers have not been the strongest defense against tight ends this season, allowing the third-most yards per game vs the position. The Lions should implement a pretty vertical offense against them, given that they’ll be safely in a dome.
One last thing of note: the Buccaneers blitz at an extremely high level. Back in the first matchup against DET this season, they blitzed Jared Goff at a 41% clip, and he threw for nearly 200 yards and two touchdowns against it.
Mecole Hardman Under 11.5 Longest Reception (-115) at Bills
WAGER: 1 Unit
After watching Hardman struggle mightily last week with multiple miscues, including watching a ball sail right by him on what would have been a walk-in touchdown as well as another route where he kind of gave up on the route early, I have to take the under here.
Hardman has not been reliable this season, with the only time in eight games that he’s gone over this total being a meaningless Week 18 game where none of the starters played. The Bills have also excelled at stopping the deep ball this season, and that seems to be Hardman’s primary role at this point of the year.
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NFL Divisional Prop Bets
Baltimore Ravens: Team Total Over 26.5 (-120)
Wager: 1 Unit
The Ravens have had no issue scoring this season, scoring 27 or more points in 10 of 17 games. It’s also worth noting that Week 18 shouldn’t count against them, as they sat most of their starters.
Looking at this game, this could be a one-sided matchup to the Ravens, despite how they came out looking in Week 1. In that game, they were figuring out new offensive systems, didn’t have all of their top players, and things take time to gel.
Jackson has looked great over the second half of the season, cementing his MVP case in Week 17 with the 56-19 win over the Miami Dolphins. Now that he also gets Andrews back, he could do some real damage to this Texans’ defense.
Texans vs Ravens: First Half Under 21.5 (-105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • 1 Unit
This feels like a great spot for the under, considering that outdoor divisional playoff games tend to lean lower-scoring.
Houston is 8-0 to the first-half under in games away from home, plus they have not looked great in outdoor settings with Stroud this season, averaging only 12 points per game.
