It was a disappointing result in the NFL Wild Card Round, where I ended up losing 0.97 units. I’ll look to get back on track with my divisional picks.
Read on for my best, longshot, and same-game parlays for the Divisional Round. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
Let’s bounce back with my NFL Divisional parlays.
Best NFL Wild Card Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 324-390 (+20.12 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 16, at 4 p.m. ET from bet365 Sportsbook.
Wild Card Top Parlay (+121)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.84 Units
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 75+ Receiving Yards (-200)
- Rashee Rice 6+ Receptions (-210)
The Divisional Round top parlay features two player props that are “watered down" to give me a more favorable number.
I’ll start with Amon-Ra St. Brown to get 75 or more receiving yards, which is 13 yards fewer than his listed prop of 88.5.
The Bucs are a pass-funnel defense, ranking 22nd in Pass EPA and 5th in Rush EPA, according to RBSDM.com.
We’ve seen several wideouts go off against Tampa this year, most recently DeVonta Smith (148 yards). It also bodes well that St. Brown put up 124 yards against this defense in their matchup in Week 5.
There’s a good chance that St. Brown will hit the listed prop anyway, but I’ll play it safe and bring it down to 75+ yards.
I’ll finish it off with Rashee Rice to rack up six or more receptions, which is one fewer than the listed prop of 6.5.
Since Week 14, Rice has put up 80+% route participation or 26+% targets per route run in four of five games.
During this stretch, the promising rookie wideout has racked up six or more catches in four of those matchups. In fact, Rice has cleared this number in six of his last seven.
When the Chiefs faced the Bills in Week 14, Rice made seven receptions.
The Bills’ defense limits big plays downfield, which feeds into Rice’s skillset as a possession receiver who wins underneath.
Target these two plays for our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Wild Card Parlay
Wild Card Longshot Parlay (+939)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.12 Units
- George Kittle 75+ Receiving Yards (+230)
- Jameson Williams 50+ Receiving Yards (+215)
The longshot parlay includes two player props that we’re “laddering" to a more challenging number for a higher potential payout.
I’ll kick it off with George Kittle to rack up 75 or more receiving yards. The 49ers’ star is one of the best big-play threats at tight end, averaging 15.7 yards per reception this season.
This is a terrific matchup against the Packers, who are allowing 8.06 yards per target to tight ends this year, which ranks 30th in the NFL.
The listed prop on Kittle is 51.5, so we’re asking for 26 additional yards.
The reason why I’m targeting this in a parlay is because Kittle can be boom-or-bust at times, putting up 30 yards or fewer in five games this season.
There’s a risk that the 49ers have a run-heavy game script as 9.5-point favorites here, so I’d rather sprinkle on Kittle in a longshot parlay than target his prop in a straight bet.
I’ll finish it with another boom-or-bust option in Jameson Williams to get 50+ receiving yards, where we need 18 more yards than his listed prop of 32.5.
I’m basically taking a shot that Williams will be able to get loose downfield against a vulnerable Buccaneers’ pass defense that ranks 22nd in Pass EPA.
We’ve seen Tampa give up big games to deep threats like Nico Collins, DeVonta Smith, and Calvin Ridley.
It bodes well that Williams has started to get more usage lately, including a season-high 87% route participation in the Wild Card round.
We’ll take a shot on the second-year player to make an impact in this favorable spot.
NFL Wild Card Same-Game Parlay
Chiefs vs Bills Same-Game Parlay (+210)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 Pass Completions (-130)
- Josh Allen Over 8.5 Rush Attempts (-135)
The Divisional Round Same-Game Parlay features two props I like but will put in a parlay because of their odds (-130 or shorter).
Let’s begin with Patrick Mahomes to go Over 24.5 pass completions.
The Bills defense does a good job limiting big plays downfield, forcing opposing quarterbacks to check it down underneath.
We could see the Chiefs roll with a “dink-and-dunk" game plan to combat the Bills’ two-high, zone-heavy defense.
I’ll finish it with Josh Allen to rack up nine or more rush attempts.
We’ve seen new offensive coordinator Joe Brady utilize Allen more on the ground, including “tush pushes" like they do in Philadelphia.
Allen racked up two quarterback sneaks in the win over Pittsburgh. In the last seven games, Allen has nine or more carries in four of those matchups.
While the Bills’ star failed to hit this last week (eight carries), there’s a good chance he would have if it weren’t for his 52-yard touchdown run.
You also get the added bonus of quarterback kneels in victory formation, giving you another out to hit this prop.
