In one of three intradivision matchups on Wild Card Weekend, the Buffalo Bills will host the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on Sunday, Jan. 15.
These AFC East rivals haven’t met in the postseason since 1999, when Dan Marino’s Dolphins defeated Doug Flutie’s Bills 24-17 in the wild-card round.
With these two teams having already squared off twice during the regular season, we should have a good sense of how this game should play out, especially when it comes to a prop betting perspective.
Before reading John Arlia’s picks, toggle with the widget below for our full list of NFL Wild Card player props:
Dolphins vs Bills Player Props
Josh Allen: Over 253.5 Passing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
Allen has had plenty of success airing it out against the Dolphins this season, throwing for 400 yards in the first meeting and then backing it up with a 304-yard passing performance in their December showdown in Buffalo.
This number doesn’t seem quite high enough, especially since Miami’s defense has been a pass funnel all season. Per Football Outsiders, the Dolphins rank 25th in pass defense DVOA, compared to fourth against the run.
I’m also interested in the Over on Allen’s passing touchdown prop (1.5), but you’re paying less juice on the yards.
Isaiah McKenzie: Under 23.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a risky one, especially since McKenzie only needs to haul in one deep ball to hit the Over. However, the speedster has seen his involvement in the offense drop in recent weeks, and he doesn’t have a 20-plus yard catch since a Thanksgiving Day win over the Lions.
The former Georgia Bulldog went Under this number in three of Buffalo’s final four games, with the lone Over winning by the hook.
Find more Dolphins vs Bills betting plays
- Read our full slate of Dolphins vs Bills Predictions.
- Get the best Dolphins vs Bills Parlays.
McKenzie saw just five total targets across the last two games, and the Bills have brought back veterans John Brown and Cole Beasley, who will continue to eat into his opportunities.
- Read our full Dolphins vs Bills Predictions.
- Check out our favorite Dolphins vs Bills Parlays.
Dolphins vs Bills Prop Bets
Dolphins: Under 17.5 Points (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Just to be clear, I’m only betting this prop if Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) does not play.
We don’t have all the information on the Dolphins’ quarterback situation right now, but Miami has proven it can move the ball against Buffalo with its starting quarterback. However, we have also seen the offense struggle with Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson.
I don’t particularly trust either backup to move the ball efficiently in a raucous road playoff environment against a Bills defense that has held three of its last five opponents to 13 points or fewer.
Bills: Over 6.5 1Q Points (-145) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I’m not expecting Buffalo to get off to as quick of a start as it did in its regular-season finale when Nyheim Hines took the opening kickoff back for a touchdown, but the Bills are generally good for a first-quarter touchdown.
Sean McDermott‘s squad averaged 5.9 first-quarter points during the regular season and found the end zone in the opening quarter of their final four games. The Bills also put up touchdowns in the opening quarter of both their playoff games last year.
The juice isn’t ideal, but this feels pretty safe.
Dolphins: Call First Timeout (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 0.5 Units
I know there’s not a lot of science to this, but I’m a bit confused as to why these odds are (-115) on both sides.
There’s a reasonable chance that Miami starts a rookie third-string quarterback in one of the loudest environments in the league. Communication could be a problem for the visitors, so I would lean towards the Dolphins calling timeout first.
Given the whimsical nature of this play, don’t go overboard with your wager.
