Saints vs Falcons Predictions | Best Bets & Odds

Lance PattonPromotions Creator & Editor
Posted: Aug 9, 2022Last updated: Sep 7, 2022

Two NFC South opponents will be pitted against each other when the Atlanta Falcons host the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Both teams fell short of the playoffs last season and will have their hands full again this year.

New Orleans finished last season strong, winning five of their final six games but fell just short of the playoffs at 9-8. They were badly bit by the injury bug, with seven starters on offense, including Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara, all missing significant time.

Atlanta fully dove into a rebuild this offseason by trading longtime starting quarterback Matt Ryan to the Colts. The Falcons showed signs of life last season but couldn’t win games against playoff teams. They finished 7-10, capping the campaign with a 30-20 loss to the Saints in the final week of the regular season.

Saints vs Falcons Odds

It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Saints are a sizable favorite over the Falcons, even going on the road to open the season.

New Orleans is the more talented and the more experienced team. The Saints have a lot to be excited about with the return of key players, while the Falcons have a new-look offense and many question marks on both sides of the ball.

Check out the best Saints odds and Falcons odds for the 2022 season.

Saints vs Falcons Implied Score

Saints 24, Falcons 18.5

Atlanta is not getting much respect from bookmakers as the post-Ryan era begins. The Saints are road favorites, but this total implies they will get the job done on the back of their defense.

New Orleans’ defense is expected to be among the better units in the NFL, and the Falcons’ offense has a ton of uncertainty, which leaves this game as the lowest total in the league for Week 1.

Saints vs Falcons Pick of the Day

Read more on this Saints vs Falcons bet below.

Saints vs Falcons Matchup

New Orleans was rocked by injuries last season as seven starters on offense missed significant time, including several key players. Winston tore his ACL in Week 8 and missed the rest of the season; Thomas has missed nearly two full seasons with an ankle injury; Kamara missed four games with a knee injury. All three are expected to play in Week 1.

Atlanta will have a new-look offense after trading Ryan to the Colts for a third-round pick. Marcus Mariota is expected to be the starter for the year unless rookie Desmond Ridder emerges. The year-long gambling suspension for Calvin Ridley will also undoubtedly hurt this offense.

One of the few bright spots for the Falcons last year was tight end Kyle Pitts, and although he appears to be a transcendent player, it will be difficult for him to shoulder the load offensively with the increased attention from defenses.

Saints vs Falcons Prediction

Saints 24, Falcons 13 

Winston took care of the ball much better in his seven games last season, completing 59% of his passes for 1,170 yards and throwing 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. That was without Thomas and with one of the worst wide receiver rooms in the NFL.

The Saints’ offense should be improved from last year – assuming they’re able to stay healthy – simply by getting Thomas back. However, they added to the wide receiver room by trading up to No. 11 to draft Ohio State’s Chris Olave. They then stabilized the offensive line by selecting Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning at No. 19.

New Orleans has been a strong defensive unit over the last couple of seasons and finished last season fourth in the league in scoring defense. They’ll return a core with two solid pass rushers in Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan, the anchor of the linebacker core Demario Davis, and a solid secondary led by Marshon Lattimore.

The Saints signed Tyrann Mathieu to a 3-year, $28 million contract to solidify the back end and he’ll no doubt be a welcomed addition to the secondary. They also used a second-round pick on former Tennessee cornerback Alontae Taylor.

Atlanta could have issues moving the ball with a new-look offense against the Saints’ experienced defense. Mariota has had some ups and downs throughout his seven years in the league, and he’ll have to rely on a young core of playmakers.

Rather than opting to improve a defense that finished last season in the bottom five of the league, the Falcons used the No. 8 pick on USC wide receiver Drake London to help replace the loss of Ridley.

The significant mismatch in this game will be the Saints’ experienced defense against the Falcons’ new-look offense.

Saints vs Falcons Bet Tips

New Orleans went 9-8 against the spread (ATS) last year but has been excellent against NFC South opponents going 15-3 straight up (SU) over the last three seasons. New Orleans Unders were a profitable endeavor last season, with the total going Under in their final six games of the 2021 campaign.

Atlanta has struggled against the Saints over the last couple of seasons, going 2-6 SU and ATS in their previous eight meetings. The Falcons’ total went Under in seven of their last eight games of last season, and the total has gone Under in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.

The Saints and Falcons met in the 2021 regular-season finale, and the Saints were able to get the win to end their season with four wins in their last five games.

Saints vs Falcons Best Bets

Saints -5.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

It will be tough for Atlanta to win this game against the experienced Saints, who are seemingly healthy for the first time in a couple of seasons. The Falcons are just beginning their rebuild, have a new quarterback, a below-average offensive line, and unproven playmakers.

The Saints have dominated NFC South matchups over the last few seasons and should continue to do so here. The addition of Mathieu to an already stacked defense will be too much for the Falcons’ offense, resulting in the Saints winning on the road to start the season.

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Under 42.5 Total Points (-110)

Wager: 1 Unit

If history tells us anything, the Saints’ defense will be a solid unit this season and set the tone for New Orleans. With Dennis Allen being promoted to head coach after serving as the Saints’ defensive coordinator for the last five seasons, you can assume this team will be focused on the defensive side of the ball.

The Atlanta offense has a ton of uncertainty, and opening the season against one of the best defensive units in the league is a nightmare scenario.

With two divisional teams meeting early in the season, we’re banking on the offenses to get off to a sluggish start and for this game to be controlled by the defenses in a low-scoring season opener.

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Saints vs Falcons Props

Alvin Kamara: Over 61.5 Rushing Yards (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

If Kamara plays Week 1, this is an excellent spot for him to go off and lead the Saints’ offense. The star running back was granted a 60-day delay in Vegas court from his arrest at the Pro Bowl earlier this year. The expectation is that the court date will be moved to September or October, and the NFL won’t issue a suspension until the case is decided.

Kamara finished the regular season with 146 rushing yards in the win over the Falcons, and the Saints will likely lean on a game-control, defensive slugfest-type game script in Allen’s first game. The Falcons’ defense allowed 131.9 rushing yards per game last season and didn’t do much to improve that unit in the offseason.

New Orleans has an elite playmaker in Kamara, and they should lean on him in Week 1.

Saints vs Falcons Parlays

Saints Moneyline & Under 42.5 Points at Caesars Sportsbook

Wager: 1 Unit

This parlay is a great way to increase your odds on the Under while also not laying five points with the Saints. The Falcons have a home-field advantage, but the Saints are just too solid and experienced a team for Atlanta to pull off the upset.


Lance Patton

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