A couple of NFC squads dealing with no shortage of adversity get together for a Week 7 clash at FedEx Field when the Packers (3-3) face the Commanders (2-4) Sunday afternoon.
Green Bay is coming off a 27-10 loss to the surging New York Jets at Lambeau Field in Week 6, their second consecutive defeat to a team from the Big Apple after also having been upset by the Giants in London in Week 5.
Washington did manage to stop a four-game slide in Week 6 with an unsightly 12-7 victory over the Bears at Soldier Field that Chicago nearly pulled out.
The Commanders will be without starting quarterback Carson Wentz, who underwent surgery for a right ring finger injury Monday.
Let’s dive into our Green Bay vs Washington best bets, predictions, and betting tips for Week 7.
Packers vs Commanders Odds
The Packers’ status as 5.5-point road favorites truly underscores the level of ineptitude the Commanders are currently displaying. Green Bay has been far from competent lately in its own right despite a healthy Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and A.J. Dillon.
But even with Taylor Heinicke, who’s certainly had his moments as a starter in the past, taking the reins of the offense for Washington, there seems to be little faith in his ability to elevate the team sufficiently.
Packers vs Commanders Implied Totals
Packers 23.5, Commanders 18
Oddsmakers clearly don’t see the Commanders making much headway with Heinicke despite his serviceable track record and the solid array of skill-position weapons he has surrounding him. Additionally, it appears they also expect the Packers to bust out of their offensive funk to a degree.
Packers vs Commanders Pick of the Day
Read more on this Packers vs Commanders bet below.
Packers vs Commanders Prediction
Packers 24, Commanders 20
The post-Davante Adams era has been ugly for Rodgers thus far, despite having some talented young receivers at his disposal. The legendary quarterback’s numbers aren’t poor, as he’s completing 67 percent of his passes and owns a 9:3 TD:INT.
However, the Packers are just about middle of the pack in terms of red-zone TD scoring percentage (57.9), and Rodgers will have to play this Week 7 game and beyond without Randall Cobb (ankle), who is his most trusted holdover target. Rookie Christian Watson (hamstring) may also have to sit out after missing the Week 6 contest.
Fortunately, Jones and Dillon are healthy and face a Commanders defense that’s yielded 131.8 rushing yards per game and 4.4 RB yards per carry. Washington is also ranked No. 26 in open-field yards per carry allowed, which bodes particularly well for Jones, who’s already averaging 5.8 yards per rush and is breaking tackles at nearly a 25 percent clip.
If Green Bay can get the ground game established consistently, it should go a long way toward offsetting the short-handed pass-catching corps.
On the other side, Green Bay’s defense could be challenged by Heinicke and his collection of explosive weapons that includes Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and potentially, Jahan Dotson (hamstring) and Logan Thomas (calf) if they can return from their injuries.
Heinicke logged 16 games of action last season after Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with a career-ending hip injury in Week 1 and compiled 3,419 passing yards, a 20:15 TD:INT, and another 313 yards and a score on the ground.
The Old Dominion product’s freewheeling style and likely better ability to avoid pressure could help keep the Pack’s defense off balance at times and lead to some big plays downfield. For that matter, Robinson and Antonio Gibson may also find success, considering Green Bay is allowing 157 rushing yards per game in the last three games, along with 5.3 RB yards per carry.
The Packers rank No. 30 and No. 23 in second-level and open-field yards allowed, respectively, which also supports the notion that the bruising yet speedy Robinson could generate some chunk gains on the ground.
Packers vs Commanders Bet Tips
Here are some Packers vs Commanders betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- The Packers are 2-4 against the spread, including 1-1 as a road team.
- The Commanders are 2-4 against the spread, including 1-2 as a home team.
- Green Bay is 10-2 against the spread following a loss since Matt LaFleur‘s arrival in 2019.
Packers vs Commanders Best Bets
Commanders +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
As noted, Heinicke is an improvisational quarterback that picked up plenty of valuable experience last season and should be ready to jump in and deliver a competent performance. He’ll face a tough defense but will have the home crowd behind him, as well as plenty of weapons to target and an ability to pick up yards himself when the play breaks down.
I like Washington to keep this reasonably close.
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Commanders Over 17.5 points (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Building on the theory that Washington will enjoy at least a decent amount of success under Heinicke’s leadership, I like this prop at a solid price. The Packers have given up 20.7 points per road game thus far and allowed 21.3 overall a year ago.
I like the Commanders to score at least 2o points this week.
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