After being tabbed by most to be a clear last-place team in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a win away from clinching the division title with a week to spare.
The New Orleans Saints were favored to win the division and still have a chance to do so, but they absolutely have to win in Tampa after the Bucs secured a convincing win in New Orleans back in October.
Will Comeback Player of the Year candidate Baker Mayfield lead his team to one more big win and realize what was once viewed as a pipe dream? Let’s get into the odds and make our picks for this pivotal matchup.
Saints vs Buccaneers Odds
NFL odds used for this New Orleans vs Tampa Bay preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 26, at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Buccaneers (-155) • Saints (+130)
- Spread: Buccaneers -3 (-110) • Saints +3 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 42.5 (-110) • Under 42.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Buccaneers 22.75, Saints 19.75
Saints vs Buccaneers Predictions
Score Pick: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 23
Despite enduring a run of seven games in which they won just once, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stayed competitive. They’re on a four game winning streak, including a pair of key divisional wins, and Mayfield is on fire with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his past three games.
He should have another great day against a very overrated Saints defense, who just allowed Matthew Stafford and the Rams to throw all over them in what was a pivotal game for both sides. The last time these teams met, Mayfield had an efficient day as he threw for nearly 250 yards and three touchdowns while completing over 78% of his passes.
Meanwhile, the Saints couldn’t get anything going last time out, either through the air or on the ground. The Tampa defense isn’t playing that well lately, but they may not need to have a banner day against a Saints offense that has resembled a rudderless ship for most of this season.
Saints vs Buccaneers Best Bets & Props
Buccaneers -3 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
Our NFL bet of the day for this game is going to be the Buccaneers’ end of the spread, as it sits at the key number of -3. The Bucs have covered this number in each of their past three games, and the previous one was a push, as they got their win streak started with a tight win over the Carolina Panthers
Meanwhile, the Saints have covered +3 a few times in recent weeks by way of a win, but they’ve had a tough time staying close in losses; they haven’t lost by three or less since a tight matchup with the Packers back in late September.
In a game where their secondary is going to really be tested by Tampa’s receiving corps, don’t expect them to hang around on the road.
Over 42.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Bucs’ last three games have all gone over this total due in large part to their offense scoring at least 29 points in each outing. Their run defense has taken a major step back this year, and Alvin Kamara could be in for a much-needed big game.
We just saw the Saints get caught in a shootout with the Rams, as LA’s air and ground game both had a field day. Tampa’s run game is pretty anemic, but it will have the chance to do at least enough to set up the play action and open up lanes for Mayfield to throw to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Buccaneers Over 20.5 (-135)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit(s)
Tampa’s offense has come alive in recent weeks, scoring over 20 points in each win in their recent streak. They’ve faced some quietly solid pass defenses, but the duo of Evans and Godwin have been able to consistently find space no matter what.
The Saints’ coverage unit grades pretty well, but it’s a top-heavy unit. Top corner Paulson Adebo and safety Tyrann Mathieu have been fantastic, but that’s simply not enough against a pass-catching group as deep and diverse as the Bucs.
Saints vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay
Saints vs Buccaneers SGP (+345)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Buccaneers (-155)
- Buccaneers Over 16.5 Points (-305)
- Saints 1H Over 9.5 (-108)
We’ll stick to some similar concepts as above, starting with the Buccaneers moneyline. It’s a bit safer than the spread in what could be a tight game between bitter rivals and protects us against a couple of narrow results.
Let’s also play an alternate team total for Tampa Bay, a number they’ve cleared in eight of their past nine games. The only failure to hit was in a tough matchup with the San Francisco 49ers, one of the league’s very best defenses.
Lastly, we’ll invest in the Saints to hit the key number of 10 points in the first half. This should be a higher-scoring game than the sportsbooks are suggesting, and expect the Bucs defense to struggle a bit early on before Todd Bowles is able to make his adjustments.
