The final Thursday Night Football game of the season comes in Week 17 and will be the last of the NFL Christmas games.
The Denver Broncos (12-3) will visit the Kansas City Chiefs (6-9), with the Broncos hoping to secure the top spot in the AFC playoffs and the Chiefs hoping to play spoiler.
Of course, the Chiefs have dominated this rivalry over the last decade, and while the Broncos beat them earlier this season, they haven’t won at Arrowhead Stadium since 2015.
Below, I’ll take a look at the latest Broncos vs Chiefs odds and make my TNF predictions for Week 17.
Updated TNF Odds Comparison
With Kansas City out of the playoff picture and Patrick Mahomes hurt, the Broncos are 13.5-point road favorites, with Denver’s moneyline set at -1000. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s moneyline is +650, and the over/under is a modest 36.5 points.
All NFL odds referenced for these TNF Week 17 predictions are current as of Tuesday, Dec. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
TNF Implied Score & Team Totals
Broncos 25, Chiefs 11.5
Even before the injury to Mahomes, the Kansas City offense was struggling to score points, which is why oddsmakers aren’t bullish on the Chiefs scoring a lot of points against the Denver defense.
Plus, after a 15-point loss to the Titans last week, it’s easy to see why oddsmakers believe the Broncos can also beat the Chiefs by two touchdowns.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Thursday Night Football Prediction
TNF Score Prediction: Broncos 17, Chiefs 6
Kansas City’s first full game without Mahomes ended without the Chiefs scoring a touchdown against a Tennessee defense giving up nearly 27 points per game.
That’s a bad omen for the Chiefs before facing one of the top defensive teams in the league.
To make matters worse, Gardner Minshew was lost to injury last week, likely forcing the Chiefs to start third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun against the Broncos.
Assuming the Denver defense can handle an injury-plagued Kansas City offense, the Broncos should be able to win comfortably. That being said, the Chiefs will hang tough defensively at home, as they’ve held all visitors to 20 points or less this season.
After settling for five field goals during their first game against the Chiefs this season, the Broncos could get sucked into a defensive slugfest on Thursday night.
Thursday Night Football Bet Tips
Keep these Thursday Night Football bet tips and trends in mind before making your Broncos vs Chiefs best bets.
- Despite being 12-3 overall, the Broncos are just 6-8-1 against the spread.
- The Broncos are 0-3 against the spread as road favorites.
- The Chiefs have had nine of their last 10 games finish under the point total.
Thursday Night Football Best Bets
TNF Over/Under Pick: Broncos @ Chiefs Under 36.5 Points (-112)
It’s tough to envision the Chiefs having much offensive success with Oladokun making his first career start against the vaunted Denver defense.
It might be up to the Broncos to score close to 30 points to push the total over 36.5 points.
At home, the Kansas City defense isn’t going to make it easy on the rival Broncos, keeping this game low-scoring.
I’ll back the Under as my NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.
TNF Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs +13.5 (-115) vs Broncos
If this game becomes a defensive slugfest, it’ll be hard for the Broncos to cover two touchdowns.
The Denver offense has thrived this season mostly when it has needed to score points.
The Broncos probably won’t be facing a significant deficit in this game, and it could be tough sledding against the Kansas City defense on the road.
That should be enough for the Chiefs to beat the spread, even if the result doesn’t go their way.
Thursday Night Football Prop Bet
TNF Prop: Bo Nix Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
Believe it or not, Nix has just one multi-touchdown outing in his past six games.
That came just two weeks ago, when he threw four touchdown passes against Green Bay, but outside of that game, he has just three total passing touchdowns in his last five contests.
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Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed just 17 passing touchdowns all season, tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
This doesn’t seem like the type of game in which he’s going to have a lot of easy throws.
Thursday Night Football Parlay
Best TNF Same-Game Parlay (+850)
- Chiefs +13.5 (-112)
- Chiefs: Under 10.5 Points (-120)
- R.J. Harvey: 3+ Receptions (-122)
A strong defensive effort will keep the Chiefs in this game, allowing them to stay within the number and avoid total humiliation.
However, an inexperienced quarterback against Denver’s defense is a recipe for disaster, limiting the Chiefs to 10 points or less.
Meanwhile, after Harvey had success last week as a pass-catcher, the Broncos will keep getting him involved that way. He’s caught at least three passes in four of his last five games, making this a safe addition to our parlay.
Combine these three outcomes for your TNF Week 17 parlay.
