For the first time in nearly a decade, the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will crown a new champion.
Joey Chestnut, the 16-time champ and winner of the last eight events, has been barred from the competition due to a competing sponsorship, leaving him unable to vie for a record ninth consecutive Mustard Belt.
Instead, a new glizzy-guzzling hero will make their name on the Fourth of July. But who will emerge victorious from what is now a competitive field?
Let’s dig into the 2024 Hot Dog Eating Contest odds for Thursday’s showcase on Coney Island.
Men’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
Betting odds for the Nathan’s Hot Dot Eating Contest contest are current as of Tuesday, July 2, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Geoffrey Esper (-120)
- James Webb (+200)
- Nick Wehry (+550)
- Patrick Bertoletti (+800)
- Field (+2500)
Last year, Chestnut was a -4000 favorite to take down the Mustard Belt. With him out of the picture, this year’s contest should come down to the wire.
Women’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds
- Miki Sudo (-1200)
- Mayoi Ebihara (+600)
- Michelle Lesco (+2000)
- Katie Prettyman (+5000)
- Field (+5000)
The same can’t be said for the women’s event, as Miki Sudo has produced a Chestnut-like run over the past decade. She’s the overwhelming favorite for good reason.
Hot Dog Eating Contest Winner Picks
Geoffrey Esper: Wins the Hot Dog Eating Contest (-120)
Everything points to this being Esper’s time to shine.
The 49-year-old from Oxford, MA, finished as the runner-up to Chestnut each of the last three years. He also occupies the No. 2 slot in the Major League Eating rankings.
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The gap between Esper and the rest of the field isn’t large — he finished two hot dogs and buns clear of James Webb and four clear of Nick Wehry last year — but he’s the most likely candidate to succeed Chestnut.
Look for him to make the most of this opportunity.
Miki Sudo: Wins the Hot Dog Eating Contest (-1200)
There will be no upset here.
Sudo has dominated the women’s hot dog eating contest over the last decade and should add another title to her mantle on Thursday.
Michelle Lesco (2021) is the only other recent women’s champion, but she didn’t have to beat Sudo, who was pregnant and didn’t participate.
The 38-year-old is the top woman in the MLE rankings and sits at No. 3 overall behind Chestnut and Esper. Sudo is a force to be reckoned with, but backing her at this price isn’t ideal.
Hot Dog Eating Contest Props
Miki Sudo/Nick Wehry Under 85.5 Hot Dogs Eaten (+100)
If you’re new to MLE, Sudo and Wehry are the sport’s power couple.
They met in the competitive eating scene, and with Chestnut not competing, there’s a chance that they could both win the Mustard Belt this year.
While that outcome would be a fantastic story, I’m taking the Under on this hot dog eating contest prop.
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The couple combined for 84.5 hot dogs and buns last year, with Wehry taking down 45 and Sudo eating 39.5.
Sudo owns the women’s event record at 48.5 (set in 2020), but that was the only time she cleared 41. Wehry has finished at 45 or fewer each of the last three years, so they’ll need an extraordinary effort to top this number.
At plus-money odds, the Under feels like the play.
