After a below-average regular season by his lofty standards, Travis Kelce made his presence felt in a Divisional Round win over the Texans, catching seven passes for a season-high 117 yards and a touchdown. However, he followed that up with a two-catch, 19-yard effort against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, his worst postseason outing in years.
Before last week, the Kansas City Chiefs star tight end had made at least five receptions for a minimum of 70 receiving yards in every playoff game since the team’s first Super Bowl win over the 49ers in 2020.
Will Kelce return to his typical postseason standard against the Eagles in Super Bowl 59? Or will Philadelphia find a way to slow down the veteran pass-catcher like Buffalo did?
Let’s dig into my favorite Travis Kelce props for the Super Bowl.
All NFL odds used for these Travis Kelce prop bets are current as of Tuesday, Feb. 4, at 1 p.m. ET.
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Prop
Travis Kelce: Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Kelce exceeded this number eight times in 16 regular-season games and once in two playoff contests, so this line is fair, especially since it was set about eight yards higher last week. Given that extra cushion, I’m comfortable going back to the Over.
The 35-year-old has recorded at least 70 receiving yards in 14 of his previous 15 postseason games. He has gone Over this mark in three of four Super Bowl appearances, putting up a 6-81-1 stat line against the Eagles two years ago in Glendale.
We’ve also seen Philadelphia struggle to defend tight ends this postseason. Washington’s Zach Ertz led the Commanders with 11 catches for 104 yards in the NFC Championship Game. Rams tight end Tyler Higbee (7-54-1) was also productive against a group of linebackers and safeties that aren’t elite in coverage.
Neither of those players has the talent that Kelce does, so I expect him to easily clear this number as one of my best NFL bets today.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Travis Kelce Receptions Prop
Travis Kelce: Over 6.5 Receptions (+123)
I love the plus-money odds on this prop, especially considering the matchup problem that Kelce poses for Philly’s defense.
The Eagles have elite cover corners and get pressure with their defensive front, often forcing opposing quarterbacks into check-down throws over the middle of the field. That is why Matthew Stafford and Jayden Daniels frequently targeted Higbee and Ertz against linebackers and safeties that aren’t as strong in coverage.
- Get ready for Chiefs vs Eagles with our Super Bowl predictions.
The issue for Philly DC Vic Fangio in this matchup against Kansas City is that Kelce is still the Chiefs’ most reliable weapon, and it’s going to be particularly difficult to take him away.
Kelce has had at least six receptions in his four Super Bowl appearances and made nine catches on 10 targets last year against the 49ers. After hardly being involved in the AFC Championship Game, he should have a strong bounce-back performance on Sunday in New Orleans.
