Isiah Pacheco started the season as the unquestioned starter in Kansas City, but the third-year running back’s role has diminished over the course of the campaign.
Injuries have played a significant role in his demotion, as Pacheco missed Weeks 3-12 with a fractured fibula. He has also dealt with a rib injury since returning to the lineup.
The 25-year-old has handled most of the rushing workload in Kansas City’s previous two Super Bowl successes, but what impact will he have on Sunday in New Orleans?
Here are some Isiah Pacheco prop bets to consider for Chiefs vs Eagles.
All NFL odds used for these Isiah Pacheco prop bets are current as of Tuesday, Feb. 4, at 3 p.m. ET.
Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Prop
Isiah Pacheco: Under 21.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
There’s a reason this line is so low.
Pacheco’s efficiency has plummeted, falling from 4.6 yards per carry last season to 3.7 this campaign. That number has dropped even further this postseason (3.0), so he will need decent volume to hit the Over on his rushing yards prop.
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That hasn’t been the case in the playoffs thus far. Pacheco received five carries against Houston and Buffalo, rushing for 18 and 12 yards.
It’s evident that Kansas City trusts Kareem Hunt more than Pacheco right now, so I don’t see him getting to 22 rushing yards unless Hunt gets injured or Pacheco breaks a run early and Andy Reid decides to ride the hot hand.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Isiah Pacheco Total Yards Prop
Isiah Pacheco: Under 28.5 Total Yards (-109)
There isn’t much value in doubling up on these Isiah Pacheco props, but I love getting a better price and more wiggle room for a player who isn’t often involved in the passing game.
Pacheco has 11 combined receiving yards over his last four games and has just six catches on 11 targets in seven games since returning from injury. For reference, he had seven catches on eight targets in the better part of two games before getting injured in the final minute of Kansas City’s Week 2 win against Cincinnati.
Pacheco’s snap share has hovered around 30% in the postseason, and it will likely diminish even further in the biggest game of the season. Hunt is the priority in early-down and short-yardage situations, and veteran third-down back Samaje Perine is more reliable as a receiver and in pass protection.
That leaves Pacheco on the outside looking in, so I’m taking the Under on his total yards prop as one of my best NFL bets today.
