Week 7 was my worst result of the season, losing 5.85 units after a number of bad beats. However, I’m still up for the season, so we need to think of the big picture.
Read on for my best bet, longshot, and same-game parlay for Week 8. Check out my X account @FAmmiranteTFJ to see my full betting card.
We’ll try to earn a profit this time around with my NFL Week 8 parlays.
Best NFL Week 8 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 83-98 (+5.46 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Oct. 27, at 12 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 8 Top Parlay (+272)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.4 Units
- Saints/Colts: Over 44 (-110)
- Broncos +7 vs Chiefs (-105)
The top parlay starts off with the Over in the New Orleans Saints vs Indianapolis Colts game.
While New Orleans continues to struggle on offense, Colts matchups tend to be high-scoring, especially at home in the indoor environment.
Indianapolis has one of the most fast-paced offenses in the NFL, which results in more plays and more opportunities for points.
In other words, this is a “pace-up" game for a Saints team that generally plays in low-scoring games. In fact, six of New Orleans’ seven games have combined for fewer than 44 points.
This line is set at such a high number for a reason, as Colts games have combined for at least 50 points in five of seven.
Look for a close game that could turn into a shootout, just like we saw last week with the Colts vs Cleveland Browns.
I’ll finish it off with the Denver Broncos +7 as home underdogs against division rivals the Kansas City Chiefs.
We’ve seen superior teams have a tough time on the road against teams in their division. Just look at the Buffalo Bills losing outright to the New England Patriots last week.
While the Chiefs are 6-1, three of those wins have been by seven points or fewer. When these teams met in Week 6, Kansas City dominated, but it only won by 11.
I’m projecting a better effort from the Broncos this time around because of their home-field advantage. We’ve seen them play Kansas City tough in the Russell Wilson era, losing by three and six points last season.
Target these two picks in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 8 Parlay
Week 8 Longshot Parlay (+320)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.3 Units
- Jaguars/Steelers: Under 41 (-110)
- Titans ML (+120) vs Falcons
The longshot parlay starts off with the Under in the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers game.
Pittsburgh’s matchups have combined for 41 points or fewer in five of six games. The Steelers have a conservative approach on offense, where Kenny Pickett is essentially the game manager.
While the Jaguars have played in high-scoring matchups this year, this is a tough spot in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers’ defense has given up fewer than 20 points in three of their last four.
Look for this one to come down to the wire in a low-scoring affair.
- See the full list of NFL Week 8 odds.
I’ll conclude this parlay by targeting the Tennessee Titans on the moneyline.
Tennessee is coming off its bye and ready to turn to rookie quarterback Will Levis, which should inject some life into this offense.
The Titans’ strength on defense is stopping the run, which could force Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder to air it out more often.
That could put Ridder in a tough spot, especially since he’s one of the worst starters in the NFL, registering a 51.3 Passing Grade per PFF, which ranks 42nd.
It also helps that Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is undefeated coming off the bye week as Titans’ head coach.
NFL Week 8 Same-Game Parlay
Saints vs Colts Same-Game Parlay (+234)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.36 Units
- Alvin Kamara: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Michael Pittman Jr.: Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The same-game parlay focuses on the Saints vs Colts, which could turn into a sneaky shootout.
I’ll start off with Alvin Kamara Over 33.5 receiving yards, as the Saints’ star running back has been absolutely peppered with checkdowns from Derek Carr lately.
Since returning from suspension, Kamara has 39 targets in only four games.
The Colts have given up 6.41 yards per target to running backs, which ranks 23rd in the NFL.
In other words, we’ve got a high volume pass-catcher in an exploitable matchup.
I’ll finish it off with Michael Pittman Jr. Over 58.5 receiving yards. The Colts’ top target complained that he deserved more looks after the team’s Week 7 loss to the Browns.
We just saw the Saints get burned by Christian Kirk for 90 yards.
Pittman has at least 50 yards in six of seven games this year, so there’s a good chance he’ll be right around this number in the worst-case scenario.
It’s also a positive to see Pittman has had double-digit targets in four of those games.
