It was a tough result in Week 10, where I lost just over four units following a few bad beats, including Dalton Kincaid missing the Over on his receiving yards prop by one yard.
Read on for my best bet, longshot, and same-game parlay for Week 11. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
We’ll look for a better result with my NFL Week 11 parlays.
Best NFL Week 11 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 125-163 (-2.18 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Nov. 17, at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 11 Top Parlay (+193)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.7 Units
- Chargers ML (-166) at Packers
- Browns ML (-120) vs Steelers
The top parlay starts off with the Chargers (4-5) to defeat the Packers (3-6).
Los Angeles is currently fighting for an AFC Wild Card spot, and this game comes right before a tough matchup vs the Ravens, so the Chargers desperately need a win here.
I’m betting on the significant quarterback advantage with Justin Herbert over Jordan Love in this spot.
It also helps that the Packers’ run defense is abysmal, ranking 25th in Rush EPA, per RBSDM.com. Look for Austin Ekeler to have a big game in this one.
I’ll finish it off with the Browns (6-3) to beat the Steelers (6-3) in an AFC North battle.
While Deshaun Watson is out for the season, the Browns have shown that they can win in the right matchup with P.J. Walker under center, including victories over the 49ers and Colts, so I’m not too worried about Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh continues to defy the odds by winning games despite being consistently out-gained in yardage virtually every week.
Look for Kenny Pickett to have a tough time against a Browns defense that ranks 1st in Pass EPA. The Browns are good enough to overcome the loss of Watson in this spot.
Target these two moneylines in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 11 Parlay
Week 11 Longshot Parlay (+158)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.54 Units
- Bills ML (-325) vs Jets
- Rams ML (-102) vs Seahawks
While this isn’t as much of a longshot parlay as usual at (+158) odds, I need some wins to get out of this cold spell, so we’ll go with a conservative approach this week.
I’ll start off with the Bills (5-5) to get a much-needed win over the division rival Jets (4-5).
Buffalo should look a little different on offense following the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. I’m betting that we see a much better unit under interim coordinator Joe Brady, who had success with Joe Burrow at LSU before struggling in a brief stint with the Panthers.
Additionally, Zach Wilson continues to play poorly for the Jets. I can’t really see a scenario where Wilson can keep pace with Josh Allen and company.
Look for the Bills to get it done in a must-win situation here.
- See the full list of NFL Week 11 odds.
I’ll finish it off with the Rams (3-6) to beat the Seahawks (6-3).
Los Angeles is clinging to its playoff hopes, desperately needing a win as they come off the bye.
Fortunately for Sean McVay and company, they’ve played well against the Seahawks over the years. In fact, the Rams have won four of the last six meetings, including a blowout victory in Week 1.
With Matthew Stafford expected back, look for a much more efficient offense, which will help them get it done in this spot.
NFL Week 11 Same-Game Parlay
Buccaneers vs 49ers Same-Game Parlay (+184)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.6 Units
- Brock Purdy: Over 258.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- Deebo Samuel: Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I’m targeting the Bucs’ vulnerable pass defense in my Week 11 Same-Game Parlay.
We’ll start with Brock Purdy to go Over 258.5 Passing Yards. Tampa Bay has given up big games to C.J. Stroud (470 yards), Josh Allen (324 yards), Jared Goff (353 yards), Jalen Hurts (277 yards), and Kirk Cousins (344 yards) this season.
On top of that, Purdy has comfortably eclipsed this number in each of his last three games, combining for 933 yards during that span.
I’ll add Deebo Samuel to go Over 49.5 Receiving Yards due to the positive correlation with my Purdy prop. It also helps that we’re getting a low bar at 49.5, which is easily attainable vs this Bucs defense.
Deebo only had 30 yards in his return last week, but that was a blowout game script where San Francisco had success on the ground (Christian McCaffrey had a 5.9 YPC).
Tampa Bay ranks 1st in Rush EPA, per RBSDM.com, so it’s likely that the 49ers will be more successful through the air.
We’ve seen the Bucs give up big games to wide receivers this year, including the following:
- Noah Brown (153 yards)
- Tank Dell (114 yards)
- Khalil Shakir (92 yards)
- Gabe Davis (87 yards)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (124 yards)
- A.J. Brown (131 yards)
- DJ Moore (104 yards)
- Justin Jefferson (150 yards)
Look for Deebo to fly Over this number.
