The Kansas City Chiefs’ quest for a historic Super Bowl three-peat begins on Saturday when Patrick Mahomes and Co. host C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round.
Houston’s defense led the way on Wild Card Weekend, forcing four turnovers in Saturday’s 32-12 victory over the Chargers. Meanwhile, Kansas City enjoyed essentially a second straight off week, as most of its starters haven’t featured since Week 17.
Can the Texans take advantage of any potential Chiefs’ rust? Or will Andy Reid’s squad move one step closer to history with its eighth consecutive playoff victory?
To prepare for this AFC Divisional Round matchup, let’s examine the latest betting odds before digging into my Texans vs Chiefs prediction and best bets.
Texans vs Chiefs Odds
NFL odds are current as of Tuesday, Jan. 14, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Texans (+340) vs Chiefs (-440)
- Spread: Texans +8.5 (-110) vs Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-110) / Under 41.5 (-110)
Texans vs Chiefs Prediction
Chiefs 24, Texans 17
When these teams met in Kansas City in Week 16, the Chiefs defeated the Texans 27-19, with Mahomes accounting for 293 total yards and a pair of scores.
Houston lost wide receiver Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury during the third quarter of that game, which visibly affected his teammates and likely affected the outcome. Dell led Texans’ pass-catchers with 98 yards on six receptions on the day and was a constant threat to the Chiefs’ secondary.
Without him and Stefon Diggs, Stroud is left to rely on top target Nico Collins and running back Joe Mixon. Those two combined for 228 of Houston’s 429 total yards last week, accounting for over 53% of the offense and a pair of touchdowns. No Texans pass-catcher besides Collins posted 35 or more receiving yards.
Given that, Collins will likely draw extra attention, and Mixon could struggle against a Kansas City defensive front that ranked tied for fourth in rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.1). Unless someone steps up or the defense plays out of its mind again, it’s hard to envision a way for Houston to win this game.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Texans vs Chiefs Best Bets
Texans +8.5 (-115)
While I don’t see the Texans pulling off the upset, they can keep this game close.
Kansas City won 15 games during the regular season, but only four of those victories were by eight or more points. Mahomes and the Chiefs have perfected the art of the fourth-quarter drive, often getting just enough first downs to kill the clock without scoring.
Plus, Houston’s pass rush should be able to cause some problems to Kansas City’s biggest weakness — its poor offensive tackle play. If the defense can get to Mahomes quickly, it’ll give Stroud and the offense a few more chances to stay in the game.
Under 41.5 Points (-108)
It feels silly to say this given the quarterbacks involved, but the defenses are the top units in this game.
Kansas City’s defense ranked fourth in the NFL this season in points allowed per game (19.2), continuing to impress under Steve Spagnuolo’s guidance. And we all saw what DeMeco Ryans’ group is capable of on Saturday.
Unders are 10-7 in Kansas City’s contests and 11-7 in Houston’s games this campaign (including the playoffs), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see those trends continue. This game will be played outdoors in freezing temperatures, which could negatively impact kickers and a dome team like the Texans, and there is recent familiarity here.
I would wait to see if the key number of 42 pops before kickoff, but this should be a low-scoring environment. Take the Texans-Chiefs Under as one of your best NFL bets today.
