Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will look to move one step closer to a historic Super Bowl three-peat when they host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 26.
This meeting will be the fourth in five postseasons between these two franchises, with Kansas City winning each of the previous three.
Will Allen and the Bills finally get over the hump and advance to Super Bowl 59? Or will Mahomes and the Chiefs claim a third consecutive AFC title?
Let’s examine the latest betting odds for this must-see matchup before digging into my Bills vs Chiefs prediction and best bets for the AFC Championship Game.
Bills vs Chiefs Odds
NFL odds are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 22, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Bills (+105) vs Chiefs (-125)
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-105) vs Chiefs -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) / Under 47.5 (-110)
Bills vs Chiefs Predictions
Chiefs 27, Bills 24
We’ve seen this movie several times before.
The Bills beat the Chiefs in the regular season to build the narrative that this year will finally be the one that Allen dethrones Mahomes, only for Kansas City to pull the rug out from under Buffalo in the postseason in the most painful ways possible.
Andy Reid’s squad has specialized in doing just enough to win games all season long, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Houston arguably outplayed Kansas City at Arrowhead last weekend but still lost. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense pressured C.J. Stroud into eight sacks, while Mahomes and Travis Kelce rolled back the years, making plays in the pivotal moments to win the game.
Buffalo will present a more formidable challenge, but it also was slightly lucky to advance to this stage. Baltimore had no issues moving the ball throughout the game but was undone by costly turnovers, something the Bills’ defense has lived off this year.
Sean McDermott’s squad led the NFL with a plus-24 turnover differential during the regular season, forcing 32 turnovers and only giving the ball away eight times. The Bills were plus-three in that category against the Ravens, which led to 10 Buffalo points and ultimately made the difference in the game.
I have doubts about how sustainable that turnover variance is moving forward. The Bills’ plus-24 turnover differential was eight better than the league’s second-best team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and 12 clear of the rest of the league.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs rarely turn the ball over. They had the fourth-fewest giveaways in the NFL during the regular season (14) and have played turnover-free football for an NFL-record eight consecutive games. Mahomes’ most recent turnovers came against the Bills on Nov. 17.
Whoever wins the turnover battle will likely win this game, and I think Kansas City makes the critical play at home.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Bills vs Chiefs Best Bets
Chiefs ML (-125)
I’m all for fading the Chiefs as a heavy favorite, but betting against Patrick Mahomes as a favorite of fewer than three points hasn’t proven to be a winning proposition.
Kansas City has won four games this season by one- or two-point margins, so don’t bother taking the spread for a little less juice.
Give me the Chiefs to return to the Super Bowl as one of my best NFL bets today.
Over 47.5 Points (-110)
I don’t feel great about the total, but my lean is to the Over. Both teams are used to playing outdoors in freezing temperatures, so the weather shouldn’t be a factor. Plus, each of the previous three postseason meetings between these teams featured at least 51 points.
The Bills showed in the regular-season meeting that they could move the ball against this Kansas City defense. The Chiefs should also have success on offense, especially with Mahomes targeting Kelce over the middle of the field.
This bet could come down to the wire, but I like the Over.
