The 49ers (3-2) head into Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-3) in a Week 6 NFC clash. San Francisco is picking up steam after opening the season with a 1-2 mark, having notched back-to-back wins against the Rams and Panthers.
Atlanta has played more competitively than expected and enters this game having dropped a narrow 21-15 decision to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers despite having played without Cordarrelle Patterson (IR-knee) and Kyle Pitts (hamstring).
Let’s dive into our San Francisco vs Atlanta best bets, predictions, and betting tips for Week 6.
49ers vs Falcons Odds
The 49ers are 5.5-point road favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
Oddsmakers are unsurprisingly giving San Francisco plenty of respect after the team has demonstrated an ability to run a very balanced offense under Jimmy Garoppolo thus far, and with Jeff Wilson Jr. keeping the ground game clicking in the absence of Elijah Mitchell.
The fact that the Niners’ defense has been elite (NFL-low 249.2 total yards per game allowed) is the driving force behind the low total, with another potential absence by Pitts and Patterson also being a factor.
49ers vs Falcons Implied Totals
49ers 24.5, Falcons 19
Oddsmakers are clearly envisioning another strong showing by the Niners’ defense while at the same time showing some faith in Falcons head coach Arthur Smith being able to put together a more competent offensive game plan than the Panthers just did in Week 5.
49ers vs Falcons Pick of the Day
Read more on this 49ers vs Falcons bet below.
49ers vs Falcons Prediction
49ers 24, Falcons 14
The 49ers faced a mistake-prone Baker Mayfield in Week 5, and although they only picked him off once, they sacked him four times and held Carolina to 15 points. San Francisco now faces a notably less talented offensive team in the Falcons, which have certainly been overachieving thanks to some excellent coaching and schemes on that side of the ball, but they still figure to be overwhelmed in this matchup.
The Niners’ league-low total yards per game allowed figure includes a complete shutdown of opposing ground attacks (71.4 RYPG, 2.97 RB yards per carry allowed). San Fran held Christian McCaffrey to 3.9 yards per carry in Week 5, and that was with a long run of 19 yards.
An Atlanta backfield led by rookie Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley could fare worse, leaving Marcus Mariota dangerously in the crosshairs of a ferocious pass rush that’s accumulated a league-high 21 sacks.
It’s also worth noting that in addition to Pitts potentially being out, standout rookie wideout Drake London could be slowed by a knee issue he appeared to pick up late in the Week 5 loss to the Buccaneers.
While the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus and KhaDarel Hodge have been solid as complementary options, asking them to carry a heavy load against a standout secondary is going to yield predictably middling results.
On their end, the Niners should have a chance to run a fairly balanced attack once again, considering the Falcons allow 4.7 RB yards per carry in addition to a 68.7 percent completion rate and 10.5 yards per completion at home.
With Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy, Atlanta sporting the league’s second-lowest adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders (4.6 percent), and the Niners’ offensive line having surrendered only nine sacks in five games, Garoppolo should have ample opportunity to pick his spots when dropping back.
49ers vs Falcons Bet Tips
Here are some 49ers vs Falcons betting trends to consider before placing your bets:
- The 49ers are 3-2 against the spread, including 1-2 as a road team.
- The Falcons are notably the NFL’s only unbeaten team against the spread at 5-0, including 2-0 as a home team.
- The Under is 4-1 in the 49ers’ games thanks largely to their defense, while the Under is 1-1 in the Falcons’ home games.
49ers vs Falcons Best Bets
49ers -5.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
As outlined, the Niners’ defense will eventually take control of this game, with the potential absence of Pitts and a possibly limited London, certainly helping the cause.
The Falcons’ undefeated run against the spread comes to an end here in a game that should see San Fran pull away with a late touchdown.
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49ers Moneyline & Under 42.5 Total Points (+210) at FanDuel Sportsbook
The case for a Niners win has already been laid out, and although this total is a point less than the standalone one being offered, my 24-14 score prediction still fits comfortably underneath this figure.
This parlay offers a great price and also takes into account the Niners have been less potent offensively thus far on the road (19.0 PPG) than at home (25.5 PPG).
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