The San Francisco 49ers have advanced to the NFC Championship Game despite very little production out of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
In Saturday’s 13-10 comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers, Garoppolo completed 11-of-19 passes for 131 yards and added an interception.
Garoppolo has yet to throw a touchdown pass this postseason and has a total of 303 passing yards in San Francisco’s two games.
Is this the week Garoppolo gets things going with his arm or will the 49ers be reliant on their running game and defense once again?
Let’s dive in to find out which player props for Garoppolo stick out against the Rams this week.
Please note that all NFL gameday lines are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, January 26.
Jimmy Garoppolo Conference Championship Prop Bets
Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-130) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
The 49ers are primarily a run-first offense and are proving to be even more one-dimensional in the postseason.
Garoppolo attempted only 19 passes in last week’s win over Green Bay, which is pretty staggering given that San Francisco trailed from the first drive of the game until late in the fourth quarter.
The 49ers rushing attack, led by Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel, carried the ball 29 times for 106 yards. Against Dallas in the Wild Card Round, San Francisco ran the ball 38 times for 169 yards, limiting Garoppolo to 16 completions on 25 attempts.
In five career postseason starts, Garoppolo has gone Under 19.5 pass completions four times and his only Over was a 20-completion performance against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 54.
Last week, I thought that a negative game script would help Garoppolo’s passing potential, but I’m not sure that’s the case unless the 49ers trail by three-plus scores.
And while I expect the Rams to win this game, San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles six straight times and always plays tough against their NFC West rival.
I don’t see the Rams jumping out to a big lead in this one like they did last week against the Buccaneers, especially with the pressure of a home Super Bowl appearance on the line.
That should lead to more rushing attempts for Mitchell and Samuel, so I’m going with Jimmy G’s Under here.
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Over 0.5 Interceptions (-140) at Caesars
Wager: 1.5 Units
I don’t like rooting for others to fail, but Garoppolo has thrown an interception in both games so far this postseason and will be going up against a Rams defense that intercepted Tom Brady and Kyler Murray (twice) in its first two playoff games.
Garoppolo isn’t on the level of those two quarterbacks, and despite limited passing opportunities, has proved again and again that he’s prone to making a mistake.
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Jimmy G threw two interceptions against the Rams in their most recent meeting in Week 18 and was picked off at least once in eight of his 15 starts during the regular season.
The juice on this line makes this a bit harder to buy, but I think it’s worth the squeeze.
Check out more of our 49ers vs Rams Predictions
Under 1.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
This certainly won’t be the most fun bet to sweat out, but Garoppolo has one carry for one yard in two games this postseason.
The only real danger here is his immaculate record at QB sneaks. Garoppolo successfully converted 11-of-11 attempts during the regular season and is 25-for-25 in his career.
That efficiency shouldn’t come as a surprise given his tutelage under Tom Brady, the best to ever sneak it, back in their New England days.
All that being said, there’s one big reason I’m taking the Under here. That 6-foot-1, 285-pound reason is Aaron Donald.
Given all his talent at running back, I’m not sure Kyle Shanahan will call Garoppolo’s number unless the game is truly on the line.
Plus, there’s always a chance he gets limited to a yard or we get some kneel downs before the half or late in the fourth to help our case.
