Defending national champion UConn will look to take one step closer to defending its title when it faces No. 4 seed Alabama in the 2024 Final Four on Saturday night.
The top-seeded Huskies have romped through the NCAA Tournament, winning each of their four games by a margin of 17 points or more.
Does Alabama have the answers for Dan Hurley’s squad? Or will this be another show-out game for the Huskies?
Let’s break this game down from a prop betting perspective and pick out some of my favorite UConn vs Alabama props.
College basketball odds referenced for these UConn vs Alabama props are current as of Tuesday, April 2, and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
UConn vs Alabama Game Props
Alabama: Over 34.5 1H Points (-125)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.25 units
This first-half team total is simply too low.
The Crimson Tide lead the nation in points per game (90.6) and are second in first-half scoring (42.6).
I know that UConn just smothered Illinois, a team that entered the game with the top adjusted offensive efficiency in the country (per KenPom), limiting the Illini to season-lows in field goal percentage (25.4%) and points (52).
But Nate Oats’ squad isn’t going to try to attack 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan at the rim like Illinois unsuccessfully did.
Alabama attempts over 30 three-pointers per game and will spread the floor with shooting. It also plays at the ninth-fastest adjusted tempo in the nation (per KenPom), so it should get plenty of scoring opportunities, even against a UConn team that prefers a much slower pace.
The Tide have gone Over this first-half total in all four tournament games and also cleared it in both matchups against SEC rival Tennessee, the third-ranked team in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom.
It should do so against a UConn team that ranks fourth in that category.
UConn: Over 86.5 Points (-120)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.2 units
The Huskies typically play at one of the slowest paces in the country, but Alabama’s tempo and reliance on three-point shooting could speed things up.
If long-range shots aren’t falling for the Tide, UConn will likely get some easy transition baskets off long rebounds.
Alabama allows 81.1 points per game and has surrendered 87-plus points in tournament wins over Charleston and North Carolina.
- See more of our March Madness Final Four Prop Bets.
It also regularly conceded plenty of points in road or neutral-court regular-season games against Purdue (92), Arizona (87), Tennessee (91), Auburn (99), and Kentucky (117).
While the Huskies aren’t as willing to run as some of those teams, they are the most efficient offensive team in the country and should need to get into the high 80s to comfortably see the Tide off.
UConn vs Alabama Player Props
Grant Nelson: Over 0.5 3PM (-130)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.3 units
If Alabama wants to win this game, it may need to make 20 three-pointers.
But perhaps more importantly, it needs to shoot Donovan Clingan off the floor. UConn’s center has been a dominant rim presence at both ends, and Alabama’s bigs don’t necessarily have the girth to handle the 280-pounder.
Early on, I’m expecting Nate Oats to try to space the floor with 6-foot-11 Grant Nelson to draw Clingan away from the paint. The easiest way to do that is by making him respect Nelson’s three-point shooting.
The North Dakota State transfer has attempted just five threes in the tournament, making two, but he averaged three attempts from deep per game on the year and shoots it at nearly 30% for his college career.
Nelson should get a couple of early looks in what will be a three-point-heavy game plan for the Tide, and he just needs to make one to cash my best college basketball bet today.
Donovan Clingan: Under 15.5 Points (-120)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.2 units
This prop ties in with my thoughts on how this game will play out.
If UConn picks up the pace to match Alabama and score in transition more than usual, that will result in fewer opportunities for Clingan on the offensive end.
Although it’s less likely, the Crimson Tide could also successfully shoot the big man off the floor and force the Huskies into playing a smaller lineup that can better defend the perimeter.
Regardless, I don’t love this matchup as much for Clingan, who has only averaged 23 minutes per game in the tournament despite never accumulating more than three fouls.
The sophomore averages 12.9 points per game and has gone Under this total in two of four tournament games thus far.
This game environment doesn’t project to be ideal for Clingan, so I’m backing the Under on his points.
UConn vs Alabama Prop Odds
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