Bam Adebayo finished a half-point shy of the Over on his scoring prop for Game 4, which was the only thing that kept me from a perfect night. Jamal Murray easily surpassed the Over on his assists prop, while the Miami Heat came in well shy of their team total.
The Denver Nuggets have a commanding 3-1 series lead and will play with the chance to close out the Heat at home in Game 5. With that in mind, this could be our last chance of the NBA season to place some prop bets.
Here are my best prop bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals between the Nuggets and Heat.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Player Prop Odds
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Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Player Props
Nikola Jokić: Triple-Double (+108) • Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
After somewhat of a down performance in Game 4, I’m fully expecting Jokić to bounce back with a monstrous effort in Game 5. He was hampered by a turned ankle and foul trouble on Friday night, limiting him to just 37 minutes in the win.
Jokić has triple-doubled in all three series-clinching victories in the postseason. He went for 28 points, 17 rebounds, and 12 assists against the Minnesota Timberwolves, 32/10/12 against the Phoenix Suns, and 30/14/13 in the Western Conference Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers.
He’s already notched two triple-doubles in this series, and with the NBA title on the line on Monday night, I’m looking for him to have another massive night and pick up yet another.
Back Jokić with your NBA bet of the day.
Jamal Murray: Over 8.5 Assists (-109) • Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Murray has been a playmaking machine in this series, logging exactly 10 assists in each of the first three meetings and 12 in Game 4. It is something of an anomaly — these are the only double-digit assist performances of Murray’s playoffs — but at this point, it doesn’t matter if it’s sustainable.
The Nuggets have clearly found something by using Murray in this way, and it’s hardly compromised his ability as a scorer, too. The value here is simply too much to ignore given that he’s exceeded this total in four consecutive appearances.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 5 Team Props
Heat: Under 99.5 Points (-115) • Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Miami’s offense has finally come back down to Earth in the Finals, and Denver deserves plenty of credit for keeping them in check. The Heat are averaging just 97.5 points per game in this series, and they’ve surpassed this total in one of the four meetings.
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This is the lowest this total has been for the Heat all series, but even still, there’s value to be had here. I’m expecting another low-scoring outing as Miami’s role players continue to struggle on offense.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Props Preview
I lost on two of my three recommended prop bets for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Jimmy Butler came up short of his assists prop, and accordingly, Gabe Vincent failed to reach the Over on his points.
However, I did nail the Over on Denver’s team total, a bet category that I’ve had tremendous success with throughout the postseason.
With that in mind, I have three more prop bets I’m feeling good about ahead of Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Player Prop Odds
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Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Player Props
Jamal Murray: Over 7.5 Assists (-120) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Much has been made about Murray’s scoring in this series — and rightfully so — but he’s been just as steady as a playmaker, if not more so.
Murray has logged exactly 10 assists in all three games of the NBA Finals, compared to an average of 3.7 turnovers. They also happen to be his only double-digit assist performances of the entire playoffs, so clearly Murray has found something that he can exploit against this Heat defense.
Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić have gained the most from Murray’s helpers, and given that they’re both efficient scorers around the rim, we can expect Murray’s assist totals to remain relatively high. Gordon, in particular, has sank 15 of his 24 attempts inside the arc in this series.
Look for Murray to dish out at least eight dimes in Game 4 and make this your NBA bet of the day.
Bam Adebayo: Over 20.5 Points (-105) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Adebayo has been overshadowed in this series, but that’s not to say he hasn’t played well. The 25-year-old has been Miami’s most steady scorer thus far, averaging 23 points per game and logging no less than 21 in all three contests.
Despite his strong scoring performances, Adebayo is still being undervalued by sportsbooks. The totals may look like outliers when stacked up against the bulk of his playoff outings this year, but even still, he’s exceeded this 20.5-point total in each game of the NBA Finals.
Considering this bet nearly comes in at plus-odds, it’s hard not to like the value. Expect Adebayo to have another strong showing in Game 4 and score Over 20.5 points.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 4 Team Props
Heat: Under 103.5 Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Heat have not scored with their usual efficiency in the Finals — at least not compared to the rest of their playoff performances. Their two lowest-scoring games of the postseason have come in this series, posting 93 and 94 points in Games 1 and 3, respectively.
Those also happen to coincide with Denver’s wins, while Miami managed 111 points in its Game 2 victory.
I’m projecting another win for the Nuggets in Game 4, which would suggest that the Heat are in for another down night on offense. Unless Miami has another extremely efficient showing from three-point range on Friday night, it should come in well Under this total.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Props Preview
I missed two of my three recommended prop bets for Game 2 between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Michael Porter Jr. didn’t have the bounce-back effort I was expecting, and Nikola Jokić came up well short of a triple-double.
However, backing the Over on Miami’s team total continues to be my saving grace. I hit this prop consistently throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, and despite the Heat’s appearance in the NBA Finals, sportsbooks continue to underrate their offense.
With the series heading to Miami on Wednesday, here are my best prop bets for Game 3 of the NBA Finals.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Player Prop Odds
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Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Player Props
Jimmy Butler: Over 6.5 Assists (-120) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Critics have gotten on Butler for not being as aggressive with his shot since the Heat upset the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, with the 33-year-old opting to play through his teammates instead. Not only has that put his co-stars in position to succeed, but Butler has become a big-time distributor as well.
Butler is averaging 6.8 assists per game over his last 12, and he’s logged at least seven in each of the first two games of the NBA Finals. He’s done a phenomenal job of limiting turnovers during that time as well, averaging just 1.8 per game.
Butler understands that Miami’s role players need to hit shots and build confidence if they’re to win this series, and that’s especially true at home. Whether those shots are falling or not, Butler will continue feeding them, making this my NBA bet of the day.
Gabe Vincent: Over 13.5 Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Vincent has been an extremely steady presence for the Heat throughout the playoffs, and that’s held true in the NBA Finals as well. After scoring 19 points in Game 1, Vincent notched a team-high 23 in Miami’s Game 2 victory.
Overall, Vincent is averaging 13.9 points per game this postseason, meeting or exceeding this mark in 11 of his 19 appearances. His three-point shooting has been his calling card, but he’s been just as efficient inside the arc, too.
With Butler acting more as a playmaker, we can expect to continue seeing high-scoring performances out of Vincent and others. Lock him in for another Over in Game 3 at 13.5 points.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 3 Team Props
Nuggets: Over 108.5 Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Denver’s offense has sputtered in the NBA Finals, putting up just 106 points per game after averaging 116.4 through the first three rounds of the playoffs. The three-point shooting hasn’t quite been there, and the Nuggets haven’t been nearly as effective on the offensive glass, either.
Miami deserves credit for the job it has done so far, but the Nuggets aren’t going to stay down forever. At 108.5 points, this is tremendous value on a team that’s met this mark in over half of its playoff games thus far.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 2 Props Preview
I barely lost on my top prop bet for Game 1, with Nikola Jokić missing the Over on his points prop by the hook. Both teams endured some offensive struggles as well, so Jimmy Butler fell well short of his points prop, while the Denver Nuggets failed to reach 114.5 points.
With Game 1 out of the way and a better point of reference, I’m feeling much more confident in my favorite props ahead of Sunday night.
Here are my best prop bets for Game 2 of the NBA Finals between the Nuggets and Heat.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 2 Player Prop Odds
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Nuggets vs Heat Game 2 Player Props
Michael Porter Jr.: Over 15.5 Points (-105) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Porter’s 14-point, 13-rebound outing in Game 1 looks strong until you notice that he shot just 2-for-11 from three-point range — his third-worst showing from beyond the arc in the playoffs. Prior to, Porter had been shooting 40.8% from deep and averaging 14.6 points per game.
I’m fully expecting Porter to bounce back in Game 2. The 6-foot-10 forward towers above many of Miami’s defenders and his shot volume in Game 1 suggests that Denver believes this is an exploitable matchup.
Porter has hit the Over at this number in just six of his 16 playoff appearances thus far, but he’s come within a bucket of doing so in another five. So long as he can get into a rhythm early in Game 2, he should clear this Over, making this my NBA bet of the day.
Nikola Jokić: Triple-Double (-130) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Jokić has notched a triple-double in each of his last four home games, and he’s logged nine of them through 16 playoff appearances thus far. Denver has proven to be a comfortable spot for him this season: 21 of Jokić’s 29 regular-season triple-doubles occurred there, too.
Although his triple-double in Game 1 was a close call — the final rebound came with less than two minutes to play — there’s good reason to believe he can notch another in Game 2. After all, he’s averaging 29.8 points, 13.1 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game in the playoffs, and his minutes should be up in the NBA Finals.
Miami doesn’t have an answer for any facet of Jokić’s game. He’s the best rebounder and passer in this series, and the buckets came pretty easy for him in Game 1, too.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 2 Team Props
Heat: Over 103.5 Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Heat offense looked pretty dreadful in Game 1, mustering a playoff-low 93 points. Miami couldn’t get to the free-throw line (two attempts on the night) and went just 26-for-57 inside the three-point line.
Haywood Highsmith was its most efficient scorer.
This team has to bounce back to some degree in Game 2. Being acclimated should make a difference, but I also wouldn’t expect to see Max Strus and Caleb Martin go 1 of 17 from the field, either.
Miami struggled on offense throughout the regular season, but this team has exceeded this total in 12 of its 18 playoff appearances. Backing the Over at 103.5 points is the better value play for Game 2.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 1 Props Preview
The 2023 NBA Finals are set to get underway this Thursday, June 1, between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Miami’s trip marks just the second time that a No. 8 seed has made it to the finals, while Denver is appearing in its first in franchise history.
Between Nikola Jokić and Jimmy Butler, we can expect many top-tier individual performances in this series. Prop betting on those two, in particular, should prove to be especially profitable.
With that in mind, here are my best prop bets for Game 1 of the NBA Finals between the Nuggets and Heat.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 1 Player Prop Odds
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Nuggets vs Heat Game 1 Player Props
Nikola Jokić: Over 27.5 Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Get ready for Jokić to put up some massive numbers in this series. The two-time MVP is in the midst of a historic playoffs, averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists through his first 15 games.
Jokić’s points prop for Game 1 is set at 27.5, a mark he’s met nine times this postseason. And although he’s facing off with a four-time All-Defensive center in Bam Adebayo, no team or player has proven capable of slowing him down just yet. That includes Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert.
Regardless of how Miami chooses to defend him, Jokić will have an answer. In addition to his success as a scorer in the paint, he’s also knocking down 47.4% of his three-point attempts this postseason.
Look for Jokić to come out firing in Game 1 and make this your NBA bet of the day.
Jimmy Butler: 30+ Points (+145) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Nuggets have been susceptible to individual scoring outbursts throughout the playoffs — some of it by design — and Butler looks like the next in line.
Although he struggled at times in the Eastern Conference Finals, Butler’s brilliance as a scorer can’t go unrecognized. After all, the 33-year-old kicked things off by averaging 37.6 points per game against the Milwaukee Bucks, which included two performances of 40-plus points.
Anthony Edwards (31.6 points), Devin Booker (30.8), Kevin Durant (29.5), and LeBron James (27.8) have all had individual success against Denver’s defense this postseason. Butler will want to make a statement in Game 1, and the blueprint is there for him to get it done.
Nuggets vs Heat Game 1 Team Props
Nuggets: Over 114.5 Total Points (-115) • bet365 Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Heat will be exhausted coming into Game 1, and while that may not show up in their overall speed or aggression, I do believe their defense will be easier to crack as a result. They’ve just been through an incredibly physical series.
Denver will want to take advantage of what I’m assuming will be a lack of physicality, especially in the paint. Second-chance points will be key as well, and Jokić has established himself as one of the best on the offensive glass in the league.
Given how efficient Denver’s offense has been this postseason (No. 1 in offensive rating), I like them to score Over 114.5 points, even if the Heat don’t end up coming particularly close to that mark.
