The 2024 NFL season is entering its final stretch, so there’s no better time to start looking ahead to Super Bowl 59.
The NFL playoff picture is already taking shape. Buffalo and Kansas City have already clinched postseason berths, and three more teams could join them by the end of Week 14.
But which team is the best bet to lift the Lombardi Trophy right now? Let’s examine the latest Super Bowl 59 odds and discuss the cases for some of the leading candidates.
Super Bowl Odds
NFL odds used for these Super Bowl predictions are from Thursday, Dec. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Super Bowl 59 Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs (+475)
Do I even need to explain this one?
The Chiefs have won back-to-back Lombardi Trophies and been to four Super Bowls in the past five seasons (winning three). And sure, Patrick Mahomes and Co. have lucked into a few wins this season, but they’re 11-1 and getting healthy on offense at the right time.
Isiah Pacheco returned to the lineup last week, and there’s a chance Hollywood Brown could be cleared to play before the end of the regular season. That would be a huge boost to a unit that would otherwise rely on aging pass-catchers Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins and rookie wideout Xavier Worthy.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has taken a slight step back this season, but it is still allowing fewer than 20 points per game and has game-wreckers in Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, who have proven themselves in the postseason.
The best part about betting the Chiefs right now is that their odds aren’t all that different from what they were in the preseason (+550). Kansas City should be the favorite until someone knocks them off the throne.
Super Bowl 59 Favorites
Detroit Lions (+300)
Dan Campbell’s squad would’ve been in the Super Bowl last season if it hadn’t squandered a second-half lead in San Francisco. That experience clearly motivated the Lions, who are 11-1 on the year and the winners of 10 straight.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s decision to stay another season and help Detroit take care of its unfinished business has been vindicated, as the Lions are the NFL’s highest-scoring team at 31.9 points per game. The backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both on pace to rush for over 1,000 yards and already have 10-plus rushing touchdowns a piece.
That dominant ground game, bolstered by the league’s best offensive line, is a winning formula in the postseason. Detroit also has a great home-field advantage at Ford Field and would do well to maintain its spot atop the NFC to ensure it plays its postseason games indoors.
My main concern about the Lions is their defense, which is starting to be depleted by injuries. Aidan Hutchinson is a considerable loss, and I’m still unconvinced by this group of corners. There also isn’t much value left in this number.
Philadelphia Eagles (+475)
The Eagles were my favorite preseason Super Bowl bet at (+1700), so hopefully, you got on board at that number. Philadelphia has been among the league’s most impressive teams, winning eight straight games en route to a 2.5-game lead atop the NFC East at 10-2.
Vic Fangio’s defense has taken a significant step forward in his second season as defensive coordinator, leading the NFL in yards per game allowed (282.8) and ranking fourth in scoring defense (18.2 points per game allowed).
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On the other side of the ball, the offseason addition of Saquon Barkley from the rival Giants has been a masterstroke. The 27-year-old has been immaculate behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, rushing for 1,499 yards and 11 touchdowns in 12 games.
Backed by Barkley and a terrific defense, Jalen Hurts has limited mistakes and made plays when called upon. Much of this roster has Super Bowl experience after falling to Kansas City in Super Bowl 57, and it feels like this group could make a similar run.
Super Bowl 59 Contenders
Buffalo Bills (+475)
There’s plenty to like about this Bills team, but I’m not ready to take Buffalo over Kansas City or Philadelphia at the same odds.
Let’s go through the positives first. Buffalo has already wrapped up its fifth consecutive AFC East title, and it owns the tiebreaker over the Chiefs as the only team with a head-to-head victory over Kansas City. That means Sean McDermott’s squad could get the AFC’s top seed and a bye should it make up the one-game record difference over the next month.
Quarterback Josh Allen is also playing at a ridiculously high level despite losing top target Stefon Diggs in the offseason. In 12 games, Allen has accounted for over 3,000 yards of offense and 27 touchdowns with just five turnovers, making him a deserving favorite in the NFL MVP odds (-230).
Still, we’ve seen this movie before with the Bills. They’ve beaten the Chiefs plenty in the regular season. Can they overcome a series of early exits in the postseason? That question has yet to be answered and will define Allen’s season (and potentially his legacy in Buffalo).
Green Bay Packers (+1400)
The Packers are an intriguing option if you’re looking for a value bet further down the board.
Last year, Green Bay reached the Divisional Round as a Wild Card team and nearly shocked the 49ers in San Francisco. Matt LaFleur’s squad will likely face a similar setup this season, as it currently sits third in the NFC North despite a 9-3 record.
The Packers have improved dramatically on defense year over year, ranking fifth league-wide in takeaways (23) and seventh in rush yards per carry allowed (4.2). Jordan Love still has several talented wideouts on an explosive offense that can also run the ball with Josh Jacobs.
The concern with Green Bay would be that its three losses have come to three teams it could face en route to the Super Bowl (Detroit, Philadelphia, and Minnesota). However, I’d trust LaFleur to learn from those experiences and give his guys a shot with a great game plan.
Don’t be surprised if the Packers make some noise again this postseason.
Super Bowl 59 Sleeper
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2500)
Timing is everything when it comes to betting NFL futures, and this is an interesting time to buy the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is 9-3 and has a two-game lead over the 8-5 Ravens in the AFC North by virtue of their head-to-head victory over Baltimore in Week 11. Russell Wilson has come in and brought this offense to another level, adding a downfield passing attack to a run-first operation. And as always, T.J. Watt and the defense are holding up their end of the bargain for Mike Tomlin’s squad.
The Steelers’ dilemma is so intriguing because their upcoming schedule is brutal. After a Week 14 home date with Cleveland, Pittsburgh plays at Philadelphia and Baltimore before hosting Kansas City and Cincinnati to end the campaign.
This number is relatively juicy for a division leader, but it’s likely to be on the move over the next month depending on the outcome of those games. Will Pittsburgh head into the playoffs as a legitimate division winner or a reeling wild-card team?
If you fall into the former camp, take this number now. If you believe the latter, wait and hope that it doubles after a run of late-season defeats.
