Last year, the Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East with a 12-5 record. The Cowboys were followed in the standings by the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, and New York Giants.
This season, the oddsmakers view the NFC East hierarchy the same way as they have the Cowboys as the favorites to win followed by the Eagles, Commanders, and Giants. After simulating the NFL season 25,000 times, I agree with the oddsmakers.
The kicker (no pun intended) is that there is one team that is undervalued compared to the betting odds. As a lifelong New York Giants fan, it is a team that I don’t like. This team usually disappoints its fans, but this season they should make their fans happy.
Read below, to find out the result of my simulations and look at each team’s schedule with win probabilities and projected spreads for each game.
Note: These NFC East futures bet odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Friday, June 17, at 3 p.m. ET. Be careful, as many of these NFL odds might shift as we get closer to the 2022 NFL season.
NFC East Winner Betting Odds
- Dallas Cowboys (+115)
- Philadelphia Eagles (+185)
- Washington Commanders (+500)
- New York Giants (+800)
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NFC East Division Simulation
|NFC East||Projected Wins||Projected Losses||Division Winner %||Division Winner Breakeven Odds|
|New York Giants||7.0||10.0||7.5%||1233|
Cowboys Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||Projected Spread||Projected Win %|
The Cowboys’ odds reflect their strong 2021 performance. They have the shortest odds to win the NFC East and a win total of 10.5 at Caesars, which is the highest in the division. That total also lines with my projection of 10.6 wins.
With a strong returning cast for Dallas, they should replicate last year’s success. The Cowboys start off the season with two tough home games against the Buccaneers and the Bengals, but face an easy divisional schedule where they should be favored in every game other than when they play the Eagles on the road.
Additionally, the Cowboys will have tough non-division games on the road against the Titans, Packers, Rams, and Vikings.
Giants Schedule & Win Probabilities
|Week||Opponent||Projected Spread||Projected Win %|
|5||@ Packers (London)||+9.5||18.9%|
Last year, the Giants went 4-13. This season, they are projected to improve to 7-10. It is not just me projecting an improvement, but New York’s futures odds reflect this as their win total is set at seven wins.
I am a bit skeptical of the Giants’ chances of improving this season as quarterback Daniel Jones needs to be more accurate, and running back Saquon Barkley is injury prone. Assuming Jones plays better and Barkley stays healthy, New York should beat the Panthers, Texans, Lions, and Commanders to get four wins.
For the G-Men to hit seven wins, they would need to steal at least three of the 11 games where they will be underdogs of less than a touchdown.
Eagles Schedule & Win Probabilities
The Eagles are breathing down the Cowboys’ necks.
What is interesting about Philly is that even though their Division Championship odds are correctly priced, there is value in shopping for the best Eagles win total odds. Philadelphia goes over a 9-win total 68.8% of the time (when removing ties), and a 9.5-win total 56.2% of the time.
Outside of Dallas, the biggest variable for Philly winning the division is how quarterback Jalen Hurts and wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith perform. Last season, Hurts had the 19th best QBR among starting quarterbacks, but he should improve in his third season.
Additionally, the Eagles’ defense, which is projected to be the 18th best in the NFL, will have to do well against dynamic offenses of the Cowboys, Packers, and Cardinals.
Commanders Schedule & Win Probabilities
Even in a weak NFC East, the Commanders’ odds of doing well are bleak this season. This is because they are only projected to be favored in four games this season, and only one of those games (at home against the Giants) is against a divisional foe.
Quarterback Taylor Heincke may have finished a respectable 7-8 as a starter last season, but he had a QBR of only 39.9, which was only the 24th best among NFL starters. Carson Wentz will get the nod under center this year in Washington, but he may not be that big of an upgrade.
Making matters more difficult for Washington, their defense is projected to be one of the worst in the NFL.
NFC East Winner Prediction
Dallas Cowboys (+130) at BetWay
Last season, only the Buffalo Bills had a higher average scoring margin than the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys won each game by an average of 9.2 points, which was more than 30 NFL teams, including the Super Bowl Champion LA Rams, the AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals, and the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In 2022, the Cowboys return quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Ezekiel Elliott, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, and two Pro Bowl offensive linemen. With no one else in the NFC East making any significant improvements this offseason, Dallas has the best shot at winning the division.
Based on my numbers, the Cowboys should win almost 11 games this season, and they should be favored in 12-of-17 games. Dallas has the benefit of playing in a weak NFC East where they get to play each team twice.
Only against the Eagles in Philly should the Cowboys not be favored in a divisional game, but even in that contest, I project the line as a pick ’em.
As a contrarian, I am weary of backing chalky preseason favorites. I will make an exception for Dallas as they win the NFC East in 47.9% of my simulations. At (+130) at Betway and DraftKings, I believe that I have a 4.4% edge and that is why I am backing the Cowboys.