The Super Bowl is behind us, which means it’s time to look ahead.
The 2024 NFL season is still months away, and free agency and the NFL Draft need to play out before we can focus on the next football season. But it’s never too early to consider the odds for NFL MVP.
Here’s a way-too-early look at the NFL MVP odds for 2024.
NFL MVP Futures Odds
NFL MVP lines used in this article were found at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Feb. 16.
- Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
- Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+700)
- Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
- Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+1200)
- Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (+1200)
- Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+1200)
- C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (+1400)
- Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+1500)
- Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (+1500)
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (+1800)
- Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (+2200)
- Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+2500)
- Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions (+3000)
- Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
- Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+4000)
- Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+4000)
- Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears (+4000)
- Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns (+4500)
The MVP is a QB award, proven by both the odds and the fact that no non-quarterback has earned the honor since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP yet trails three of his peers for the shortest odds. Patrick Mahomes, the two-time defending champion who has already earned three MVP honors, is ahead, followed by fellow AFC QBs Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
Christian McCaffrey, who finished third in MVP voting in 2023, is the only non-quarterback among the top-20 players, odds-wise.
Keep track every day for the latest line movement in NFL odds for the MVP Award and more futures:
NFL MVP Best Bet
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+700)
We’re officially going all-in on the Bills in 2024.
No team has ever three-peated in the Super Bowl era, and no team has suffered at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs more so than the Bills. If the Chiefs fall off, it would make sense that the Bills would be the beneficiaries.
Plus, Allen played like the MVP of the league down the stretch. Despite a career-high 18 interceptions, he finished fifth in voting by willing Buffalo to a 6-1 record in its final seven games and the AFC East title.
We’ll see if Allen’s No. 1 option, Stefon Diggs, returns. But if he doesn’t, that could create even more of a market for Allen to win the award — since Mahomes won MVP the season after KC traded Tyreek Hill to Miami.
NFL MVP Favorites
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+600)
Mahomes and the Chiefs should be the favorites to win everything until someone knocks them off. Mahomes lost any chance of winning the MVP, ironically due to his receivers’ inability to produce during the regular season, yet still persevered to win his third Super Bowl MVP.
As stated above, no team has ever three-peated, and Mahomes’ top receiving option, Travis Kelce, will be another year older in 2024.
But at this point, sprinkling some funds on Mahomes to win MVP is a worthy investment.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+900)
Quick, without looking, who is the only active quarterback to beat Mahomes in the playoffs?
That’s right, it’s Joe Burrow, who won at Arrowhead in overtime in the AFC Championship Game in January 2022. Burrow went through the year from hell in 2023 with a calf ailment and wrist injury that doomed his and the Bengals’ seasons.
But all that’s behind him, and if you’re looking for a guy with a chip on his shoulder poised to have a monster year, it’s Burrow. Plus, Burrow may lose two of his receivers, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, in free agency, which could further enhance Burrow’s chances of winning.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1000)
Is there a more scrutinized two-time NFL MVP than Lamar Jackson?
Sure, Jackson has gagged in the playoffs multiple times. But the MVP is a regular-season award, and it’s hard to find a more valuable player than Jackson, who annually leads Baltimore in rushing and protects the ball exceptionally well.
It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Jackson wins two consecutive MVP awards, but he’s a bona fide favorite.
NFL MVP Sleepers
Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets (+2200)
Rodgers is the only active player to win MVP besides those listed above, and he is lined up for a massive turnaround season. The Jets went 7-10, mainly due to terrible quarterback play, and if Rodgers returns and plays well and they challenge for the division title, he could run away with the award.
However, Rodgers famously only lasted four snaps in 2023 and will be another year older in 2024. There is the threat of injury for the 40-year-old, plus the fact the Jets have never had an NFL MVP in their 53 years of existence.
But at these odds, Rodgers is an exceptional sleeper.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+4000)
Richardson was taking the league by storm with his arm and legs until a shoulder injury ended his rookie season during Week 5. But Richardson and fellow second-year AFC South quarterback C.J. Stroud will command attention due to their budding rivalry.
There’s legitimate trepidation about his ability to stay healthy due to his mobility and the inherent risk of his running. But Richardson is a Lamar Jackson comp, and Jackson won his first MVP award in his second season, so do with that what you will.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+4000)
McCaffrey didn’t win the award in 2023 because he’s a running back. McCaffrey finished third in MVP voting last season and won NFL Offensive Player of the Year after 2,023 all-purpose yards and 21 touchdowns.
McCaffrey will always be docked due to his status as an RB. But in the absence of a dominant, headline-grabbing quarterback, since Brock Purdy certainly isn’t one, McCaffrey will be considered the Niners’ MVP candidate.
With San Francisco, the favorite to win the Super Bowl at +550, McCaffrey makes a compelling sleeper.
How NFL MVP Voting Is Judged
Like every other NFL award, the NFL’s official Most Valuable Player award is determined by 50 sportswriters in voting compiled by the Associated Press. Thus, the official award title is the AP NFL MVP.
Voters submit their ballots, where they choose their pick for league MVP, directly after the regular season but before the playoffs have started. The votes are tabulated, and the winner is announced at NFL Honors, the league’s annual award show, during the week of the Super Bowl.
When NFL MVP Is Announced
The NFL MVP is the headliner award at NFL Honors, which is annually held during Super Bowl week at the site of the big game. This year’s NFL Honors will be in Las Vegas in early February, though that has not yet been officially scheduled.
Former NFL MVPs
- 1957: Jim Brown, RB, Cleveland Browns
- 1958: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1959: Johnny Unitas, QB, Baltimore Colts
- 1961: Paul Hornung, RB, Green Bay Packers
- 1962: Jim Taylor, RB, Packers
- 1963: Y.A. Tittle, QB, New York Giants
- 1964: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1965: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1966: Bart Starr, QB, Packers
- 1967: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1968: Earl Morrall, QB, Colts
- 1969: Roman Gabriel, QB, Los Angeles Rams
- 1970: John Brodie, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- 1971: Alan Page, DT, Minnesota Vikings
- 1972: Larry Brown, RB, Washington
- 1973: O.J. Simpson, RB, Buffalo Bills
- 1974: Ken Stabler, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 1975: Fran Tarkenton, QB, Vikings
- 1976: Bert Jones, QB, Colts
- 1977: Walter Payton, RB, Chicago Bears
- 1978: Terry Bradshaw, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 1979: Earl Campbell, RB, Houston Oilers
- 1980: Brian Sipe, QB, Browns
- 1981: Ken Anderson, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- 1982: Mark Moseley, K, Washington
- 1983: Joe Theismann, QB, Washington
- 1984: Dan Marino, QB, Miami Dolphins
- 1985: Marcus Allen, RB, Los Angeles Raiders
- 1986: Lawrence Taylor, LB, Giants
- 1987: John Elway, QB, Denver Broncos
- 1988: Boomer Esiason, QB, Bengals
- 1989: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1990: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1991: Thurman Thomas, RB, Bills
- 1992: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1993: Emmitt Smith, RB, Cowboys
- 1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1997: Brett Favre, QB, Packers / Barry Sanders, RB, Detroit Lions
- 1998: Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos
- 1999: Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
- 2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams
- 2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams
- 2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 2003: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts / Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee Titans
- 2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
- 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
- 2007: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
- 2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2010: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
- 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
- 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
- 2017: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
- 2023: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
