The NFL regular season is over, and MVP voting will soon commence.
Of course, we won’t know the winner until the night before the Super Bowl, meaning there is still time to check out the NFL MVP odds and place a bet.
Based solely on the regular season, here is a look at my NFL MVP best bets.
NFL MVP Odds 2025
All NFL odds used for these 2025 MVP predictions are current as of Monday, Jan. 5, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Matthew Stafford (-180)
- Drake Maye (+150)
- Trevor Lawrence (+25000)
- Sam Darnold (+40000)
- Justin Herbert (+50000)
- Josh Allen (+50000)
- Caleb Williams (+50000)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+50000)
All other players have odds of +50000 or longer.
Who Will Win NFL MVP?
Matthew Stafford (-180)
The NFL MVP odds fluctuated a lot during the final month of the season, with Stafford in a two-horse race against Drake Maye. But Stafford is my NFL MVP winner pick at the end of the season.
With four more touchdown passes in the final week of the season, Stafford finished the campaign with 46, 12 more than the next closest quarterback.
He also led the NFL in passing yards (4,707) and had one of the lowest interception rates.
Since the NFL MVP award tends to be largely based on stats, it’s hard to argue against Stafford winning his first.
I’m backing the Rams’ signal-caller as my NFL pick of the day.
NFL MVP Contenders
Drake Maye (+150)
Heading into Week 18, Maye had the shortest NFL MVP odds and looked like the favorite.
After leading the Patriots to a 14-3 record and the second seed in the AFC, he will undoubtedly garner serious consideration and receive plenty of MVP votes.
- See where New England sits in the latest Super Bowl odds.
However, his numbers don’t match up with Stafford’s. Despite leading the league in yards per pass, Maye finished fourth in passing yards and a distant third in touchdown passes, which will make it hard for him to prevail in what should be a close race.
Trevor Lawrence (+25000)
Lawrence is bound to get a lot of down-ballot votes in the MVP race after leading the Jaguars to eight straight wins to finish the season.
If the campaign had started in November, he’d probably be among the NFL MVP best bets.
Despite throwing for more than 4,000 yards and a career-high 29 touchdown passes, Lawrence won’t be able to compete with Stafford and Maye since he didn’t hit his stride until Thanksgiving.
NFL MVP Sleeper Pick
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+50000)
While his quarterback, Sam Darnold, never got much consideration in the MVP race, perhaps Smith-Njigba will elicit some votes.
He led the league in receiving yards (1,793) and was the top playmaker on one of the best teams in the NFL this season.
- Sign up for The Game Day Newsletter to get the latest bet tips and sportsbook promos.
There’s no doubt that Smith-Njigba was a big reason why Darnold had such instant success in Seattle.
Unfortunately, non-quarterbacks rarely win MVP, and to do so usually requires a historically good season, which was not the case with Smith-Njigba.
How NFL MVP Voting Is Judged
Like every other NFL award, the NFL’s official Most Valuable Player award is determined by 50 sportswriters in voting compiled by the Associated Press. Thus, the official award title is the AP NFL MVP.
Voters submit their ballots, where they choose their pick for league MVP, directly after the regular season but before the playoffs have started. The votes are tabulated, and the winner is announced at NFL Honors, the league’s annual award show, during the week of the Super Bowl.
When NFL MVP Is Announced
The NFL MVP is the headliner award at NFL Honors, which is annually held during Super Bowl week at the site of the big game. This year’s NFL Honors will be in Las Vegas in early February, though that has not yet been officially scheduled.
Former NFL MVPs
- 1957: Jim Brown, RB, Cleveland Browns
- 1958: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1959: Johnny Unitas, QB, Baltimore Colts
- 1961: Paul Hornung, RB, Green Bay Packers
- 1962: Jim Taylor, RB, Packers
- 1963: Y.A. Tittle, QB, New York Giants
- 1964: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1965: Jim Brown, RB, Browns
- 1966: Bart Starr, QB, Packers
- 1967: Johnny Unitas, QB, Colts
- 1968: Earl Morrall, QB, Colts
- 1969: Roman Gabriel, QB, Los Angeles Rams
- 1970: John Brodie, QB, San Francisco 49ers
- 1971: Alan Page, DT, Minnesota Vikings
- 1972: Larry Brown, RB, Washington
- 1973: O.J. Simpson, RB, Buffalo Bills
- 1974: Ken Stabler, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 1975: Fran Tarkenton, QB, Vikings
- 1976: Bert Jones, QB, Colts
- 1977: Walter Payton, RB, Chicago Bears
- 1978: Terry Bradshaw, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- 1979: Earl Campbell, RB, Houston Oilers
- 1980: Brian Sipe, QB, Browns
- 1981: Ken Anderson, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
- 1982: Mark Moseley, K, Washington
- 1983: Joe Theismann, QB, Washington
- 1984: Dan Marino, QB, Miami Dolphins
- 1985: Marcus Allen, RB, Los Angeles Raiders
- 1986: Lawrence Taylor, LB, Giants
- 1987: John Elway, QB, Denver Broncos
- 1988: Boomer Esiason, QB, Bengals
- 1989: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1990: Joe Montana, QB, 49ers
- 1991: Thurman Thomas, RB, Bills
- 1992: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1993: Emmitt Smith, RB, Cowboys
- 1994: Steve Young, QB, 49ers
- 1995: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1996: Brett Favre, QB, Packers
- 1997: Brett Favre, QB, Packers / Barry Sanders, RB, Detroit Lions
- 1998: Terrell Davis, RB, Broncos
- 1999: Kurt Warner, QB, St. Louis Rams
- 2000: Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams
- 2001: Kurt Warner, QB, Rams
- 2002: Rich Gannon, QB, Oakland Raiders
- 2003: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts / Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee Titans
- 2004: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2005: Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle Seahawks
- 2006: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers
- 2007: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots
- 2008: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2009: Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
- 2010: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2011: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2012: Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings
- 2013: Peyton Manning, QB, Broncos
- 2014: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2015: Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers
- 2016: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons
- 2017: Tom Brady, QB, Patriots
- 2018: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
- 2019: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
- 2020: Aaron Rodgers, QB Packers
- 2021: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs
- 2023: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
- 2024: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
