The Broncos hoped last year would begin a winning era with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and prized trade acquisition Russell Wilson. Instead, they were the butt of many jokes, finishing with only five wins and firing Hackett after a 4-11 start.
Hackett’s ineptitude wasn’t enough to shield Wilson from justifiable criticism for playing dreadfully.
Instead of going down the path of another first-time head coach, the Broncos traded the 29th pick in this year’s NFL Draft, a second-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the Saints for Sean Payton, and a third-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Payton has a .631 record and a Super Bowl victory on his ledger in 15 years as a head coach, but he has a tall task ahead of him.
Broncos Best Futures Odds
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NFL odds featured in this Broncos report were found at Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of May 26, at 9:15 pm ET.
Broncos Win Total Odds
- Over 8.5 Wins (-110)
- Under 8.5 Wins (-110)
Broncos Win Total Bet: Under 8.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.44 unit(s)
The Broncos should play better under Payton this year. Their defense, which ranks No. 5 in our NFL defense power rankings, will keep them in many games. Yet, sharing the division with the Chiefs and Chargers is unfortunate for their winning outlook. Furthermore, Denver’s schedule out of the division is challenging, namely, facing the entire AFC East.
Games against the Raiders (twice), Commanders, Bears, Packers, Vikings, Browns, Texans, Lions, and Patriots should give them some wins. And it’s the NFL, so they’ll probably upset one of their more talented opponents. Nevertheless, Denver appears ticketed for seven or eight wins.
Broncos Make Playoffs Odds
- Yes (+175)
- No (-210)
Broncos Make Playoffs Bet: No (-210)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.21 unit(s)
The AFC is stacked. The disparity between the quality of quarterbacks in the AFC and NFC has been a popular offseason talking point for podcasts and television coverage. Sadly, even if Wilson bounces back, he’s still a cut below the studs in the conference.
And if last year was the cliff for Wilson, the Broncos could be a disaster. Their above-average defense can carry them only so far, and that’s not reaching the playoffs.
Broncos Futures Prop Bets
DEN Broncos Regular Season Division Wins: Under 2.5 (+150)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.75 unit(s)
Patrick Mahomes is 11-0 against the Broncos. Justin Herbert is only 3-3 against the Broncos. However, one loss was during Herbert’s rookie season, and another was in a meaningless Week 18 game last year.
The Broncos would need to win at least one game against the defending Super Bowl Champs or the Chargers, who reached the playoffs last year, despite navigating significant injuries, to go over 2.5 wins in the division, saying nothing of needing to sweep the Raiders. And their second matchup against the Raiders is in Week 18 when both teams could be checked out if they’re out of playoff contention.
DEN Broncos Division Finishing Position: 3rd (+190)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.75 unit(s)
According to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs had a +127 point differential last season, and the Chargers outscored their opponents by seven points en route to a 10-7 record. The Broncos are an excellent bet to improve on their negative-72 point differential.
However, the Chargers should also be better this year with stud left tackle Rashawn Slater returning from a season-ending injury that cut his season short at three games, Herbert unlikely to hurt his rib cartilage again, and Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, or both, hopefully, combining to miss fewer than the 11 games they missed last year. So, the Broncos are left to battle the Raiders for third place.
Denver has a sizable head coaching advantage, and their defense is better than any of Las Vegas’s units. Thus, the Broncos should finish ahead of the Raiders in the AFC West.
Russell Wilson Under 3,800.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.35 unit(s)
Wilson would need to pass for approximately 224 yards per game and play all 17 games to go over 3,800.5 passing yards. Wilson averaged 234.9 passing yards per game in 2022 after averaging 222.4 in 2021. He’s also missed five games in the previous two seasons.
Wilson should be asked to do less this year after faceplanting last year. Additionally, Payton’s coaching tendencies suggest the Saints will play at an average or below-average pace and lean into the running attack.
Per Football Outsiders, the Saints were 15th, 13th, 23rd, 28th, and 14th in situation-neutral pace in Payton’s final five seasons coaching the Saints. In addition, according to the nfelo app, the Saints’ Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) during the same five-year stretch from 2017 through 2021 was -1.4%, -1.5%, 4.0%, -3.8%, and -6.2%.
Therefore, the under looks good even if Wilson plays in all 17 games, and any missed contests would make this a near lock.
Broncos Game Odds & Lines
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Broncos Best Player Prop Odds
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More AFC West odds: Kansas City Chiefs | Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers
How to Bet on Broncos Games in 2023
How to Bet Broncos Moneylines
NFL moneyline wagers are the simplest forms of NFL bets. All you have to do is pick a team to win a given game, and if they do, you win your bet.
Since winning is the only requirement to cash your bet, the odds for NFL moneylines can vary greatly depending on each team’s implied probability of winning (or losing) that game. Favorites are designated by a minus symbol (-200), whereas underdogs are represented by a plus symbol (+200).
If the Broncos are a (-200) favorite against the rival Raiders, you would have to bet $20 to turn a $10 profit. If Denver was a (+200) underdog, you would profit $20 off a $10 bet.
- 2022 Broncos Moneyline Record: 5-12
How to Bet Broncos Spreads
Betting the spread is the most efficient way to wager on NFL games, as it presents two evenly priced options. The spread, which is assigned a value by the books, is the number of points that the favorite is expected to win by against the underdog.
If the Broncos are 6-point favorites over the Commanders, the spread for that game will be set up like this: Broncos -6 (-110) vs Commanders +6 (-110).
In this scenario, the Broncos would have to win by more than six points for you to win your bet. If they were to win by a pair of field goals, your bet would push and you would recoup your initial wager.
Denver was the only team in the NFL to cover the spread exactly half the time in 2021, and should be a decent bet moving forward as the roster seems to have improved over the offseason.
- 2022 Broncos Against the Spread Record: 7-10
How to Bet Broncos Over/Unders
If you don’t want to pick a side, you can still bet on Broncos games by wagering on the total number of points scored.
Sportsbooks set the amount of combined points they expect both teams in the game to score, and then you can bet on either the Over or the Under.
If you expect Wilson, Jeudy, and the Broncos to light up the scoreboard, then you’ll probably want to take the Over. If you think a specific game could be more defensive, then you would bet the Under.
- 2022 Broncos Over/Under Record: 6-11
