Maple Leafs vs Lightning Predictions For Game 7 | Puck Line, Over/Under, & Parlay Bets For Stanley Cup Playoffs

The Toronto Maple Leafs will have one final chance to exorcise their demons when they’ll host a do-or-die game for the third straight season in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday.

Tampa Bay, which trailed 3-2 in both the best-of-7 series as well as in Game 6, got off the mat and showed the resilience of a two-time defending champion. The Lightning tied the game on star forward Nikita Kucherov‘s third-period 5-on-3 power-play goal, then forced the decisive game on Brayden Point‘s electrifying winner at 18:04 of overtime.

That capped off a 4-3 victory that earned Over bettors (-115) a win for the sixth straight game.

The Maple Leafs have not won a playoff series since 2004, the second-longest active Stanley Cup playoff series win drought, and fell to 0-8 since 2018 when trying to close out an opponent. Toronto has been eliminated in a do-or-die game in each of the past four seasons and in five straight playoff appearances dating back to 2013.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Friday, May 13 at 10 a.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 7 Odds

  • Moneyline: Lightning (+105) / Maple Leafs (-125)
  • Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-230) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110) / Under 6.5 (-110)

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 7 Prediction

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 7 Pick

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

This series has featured just about everything. It’s had star-caliber performances from some of the game’s best players. It’s had comebacks, blown leads, overtime, controversy, and of course goals. A lot of goals.

If you’ve been reading my predictions, you know I don’t trust the Leafs and that I won’t until I see them close an opponent out. The Lightning have been super-resilient in this series, but Toronto has had the opportunity to put the two-time defending Cup champs to bed on multiple occasions, including in Game 6 where it rallied from 2-0 down to take a 3-2 lead into the dressing room before the third period.

This series has been super-even. Toronto has outscored Tampa Bay 23-21 through six games, a margin that is only inflated by Ilya Mikheyev‘s pair of empty-net goals in Game 3. Tampa Bay has a slight advantage in Corsi-for (352-345). The Leafs have a slight edge in Expected Goals (19.82-19.24).

The point is, this series deserves a seventh game, and we as fans are lucky we’ll get to see it. Toronto earned home-ice advantage by finishing five points ahead of the Lightning in the regular season.

Its last playoff series win was also the last time Scotiabank Arena hosted a Game 7 with 19,000-plus fans — the Leafs’ Game 5, qualifying-round loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020 and their Game 7 first-round loss to the Montreal Canadiens last season were essentially closed off from the public due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The Maple Leafs swear things are different this year, and maybe they will be.

But I’m not putting my money on the Leafs to win a Game 7 against the Lightning — especially given the tension and pressure that will be inside and around Scotiabank Arena on Saturday night.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 7 Best Bets

OVER 6.5 Goals (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

We mentioned the goals in this series, which has made it in my opinion the most fun first-round series this year. The series features loads of star power, and fortunately for fans following along those players have been awesome.

Maple Leafs star forward and Hart Trophy finalist Auston Matthews has been a force with four goals and eight points, including goals in consecutive games. John Tavares has points in three straight games and scored twice in Game 6, including the tiebreaker late in the second period that would’ve stood as the game-winner if the Lightning didn’t rally.

Kucherov, the 2019 Hart Trophy winner, has been awesome too, with eight points in six games and the game-tying goal that forced OT. Point and fellow Tampa Bay center Steven Stamkos also has two goals and four points.

The only real stars that haven’t delivered are the goalies, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jack Campbell, who rank 17th and 18th respectively in goals-against average among playoff goalies.

Expect goals again in Game 7.

over-under

-110

Lightning @ Maple Leafs: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 7 Best Parlay

Lightning-Maple Leafs Parlay (+350) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline
  • Lightning To Score First
  • Over 5.5 Goals 

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Maple Leafs have allowed the first goal in each of the past three games and in six straight potential clinching games dating back to 2019. They have scored only two goals in their past three do-or-die games — Game 7 in Boston in 2019, Game 5 vs. Columbus in 2020, and Game 7 vs. Montreal last season — which is why teasing down the Over is the safer play.

Plus, Vasilevskiy has five straight shutouts in series-clinching games, including each of the past two Cup-clinching games, dating back to 2020. That streak will end at some point, and it probably will Saturday given Toronto’s goal-scoring prowess. But Tampa Bay sure knows how to win these types of games, and you can’t say that for the Leafs.

prop bet

+350

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PREVIOUSLY: Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 6 Prediction

After an emotional, come-from-behind victory in Game 5, the Toronto Maple Leafs will try to turn out the lights on the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 6 at Amalie Arena on Thursday.

The Maple Leafs haven’t won a postseason series since 2004, yet have come within a win from advancing in each of the past four seasons.

The Leafs trailed 2-0 after one period and were down 2-1 after two. But Toronto roared back with three third-period goals, including Auston Matthews‘ game-winner that broke a 3-all tie with 6:06 left in regulation and made winners of Over bettors (-120).

Tampa Bay, which has won eight straight playoff series, has only faced elimination once over the past two postseasons, winning its do-or-die Game 7 against the New York Islanders 1-0 in the 2021 Eastern Conference Final.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Wednesday, May 11 at 10 a.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Odds

  • Moneyline: Lightning (-120) / Maple Leafs (+100)
  • Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+200) / Maple Leafs +1.5 (-240)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120) / Under 6.5 (+100)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Prediction

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Pick

Lightning 6, Maple Leafs 4

The Lightning had the Leafs on the ropes in Game 5 before a string of penalties helped Toronto get back in the game. But all is not lost for Tampa Bay fans and bettors who took the Lightning to three-peat at some point during the season.

The Maple Leafs are 0-7 in clinching games over the past four seasons, including three losses to the heavy-underdog Montreal Canadiens in 2021.

I’ve said all along I believe this series is a seven-gamer, and the first five games have done nothing to make me waver from that belief. The Lightning are 2-0 after losses in the playoffs this year, outscoring the Maple Leafs 12-6, and haven’t lost consecutive postseason games since their first-round sweep against the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019.

The Maple Leafs swear things are different this year. They feel different too. But I’ve said all along: I’ll believe in Toronto when I see it win that fourth game. Take the Lightning to force Game 7.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Best Bets

OVER 6.5 Goals (-120)

WAGER: 1 Unit

I’ve said all along, the only lock in this series is the Over. Although it looked dicey for a while, the four-goal third period helped it cash in yet again. Expect it to do the same in Game 6.

over-under

-120

Maple Leafs @ Lightning: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Best Parlay

Lightning-Maple Leafs Parlay (+230) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline
  • Over 1.5 First-Period Goals
  • Over 5.5 Goals 

WAGER: 1 Unit

We’ll go back to old reliable for Game 6. This one-game parlay cashed in Game 4, and although two-thirds of our Game 5 parlay was good, the Lightning building a 2-0 lead killed the Maple Leafs scoring first portion of our parlay.

If you trust the Maple Leafs to close this series out, take them in the Moneyline and the odds jump to +275. But as we’ve said all along: we’ll believe it when we see it.

prop bet

+230

TOR-TBL Parlay: TBL Moneyline, o5.5 Goals, & More

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PREVIOUSLY: Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 5 Prediction

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs return north of the border for the pivotal Game 5 of their Eastern Conference first-round series at Scotiabank Arena on Tuesday.

The Lightning scored three first-period goals and built a 5-0 lead after two, rolling to a 7-3 victory that knotted the best-of-seven series at two apiece. Ross Colton scored twice, and Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman each had two assists, helping Tampa Bay (+210) score a huge win for Puck Line bettors and helped the Over (-105) hit for the fourth straight game.

William Nylander scored twice for his first two points of the series, and defenseman Jake Muzzin also scored for Toronto. Toronto goalie Jack Campbell allowed five goals on 16 shots before he was pulled at the 6:49 mark of the second period.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Monday, May 9 at noon ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Odds

  • Moneyline: Lightning (+110) / Maple Leafs (-130)
  • Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-240) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-120)/Under 6.5 (+100)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Prediction

Toronto and Tampa Bay have alternated wins and losses in the first four games in this series, so don’t be surprised if that trend continues. The Maple Leafs have been potent offensively, scoring at least three goals in each game in the series, led by their top line of Alex Kerfoot, Auston Matthews, and Mitch Marner who have combined for five goals in the series.

Yet, Nylander’s two goals Sunday were the first from Toronto’s second line of him, John Tavares, and Ondrej Kase, which could be an even bigger lift for the Maple Leafs.

Hedman has been a force in the series, leading the Lightning in points (6) and average time on ice (24:06) through four games. He was the game’s first star Sunday.

Tampa Bay’s role players have picked up the slack offensively too, with Colton, who had 22 regular-season goals, scoring three times, and its fourth line of Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, and Patrick Maroon each scoring in the series.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Pick

Maple Leafs 5, Lightning 4

The winning team has scored at least five goals in every game in this series, and don’t expect that trend to stop. Despite the fact it hasn’t won a playoff series in 18 years, Toronto has come tantalizingly close. The Maple Leafs have been within one win of advancing in each of the past four seasons and five of their past six playoff appearances and should get there again.

Toronto looked energized by its home crowd in Game 1 and should be again in the pivotal game.

I’ve said all along I expect the series to go seven games. If that’s going to hold true, expect Toronto to win in Game 5.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (-120)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Over is 4-0 in this series, and the oddsmakers finally have gotten wise to the fact that seven goals is a lock. The odds aren’t as good as they’ve been, but the Over is as sure a bet in these playoffs as there is.

over-under

-120

Lightning @ Maple Leafs: Over 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs -1.5 Puck Line (+200)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Despite the long odds, and seeming evenly matched teams, the puck line is also 4-0 in this series. Game 5 feels like an epic one that could be decided in overtime. But a sprinkle on Toronto to win by two-or-more goals seems like a worthwhile exercise given the odds.

spread

+200

Maple Leafs: Cover -1.5 Puck Line vs Lightning

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 5 Best Parlay

Maple Leafs-Lightning Parlay (+280) at BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Maple Leafs Moneyline
  • Maple Leafs First Team to Score 
  • Over 5.5 Goals 

WAGER: 1 Unit

We’re officially hot after the Game 5 one-game parlay hit without any sweating involved.

I think the team that scores first will win, and believe the Maple Leafs will be the team to do so. If you think the Lightning will win and want to pick them in this parlay, the odds jump to +340.

prop bet

+280

TOR-TBL Parlay: TOR ML, TOR Scores 1st, & More

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PREVIOUSLY: Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 4 Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to take command of their Eastern Conference first-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 4 of their best-of-7 series at Amalie Arena on Sunday.

Toronto scored the first three goals before forward Ilya Mikheyev netted a pair of empty-netters in its 5-2 win that paid out for Over bettors (+100) for the third straight game.

The Lightning, the two-time defending champions who have won eight straight playoff series, had their streak of six straight playoff wins at home snapped.

Tampa Bay has not lost consecutive home games at Amalie Arena since its 2019 first-round postseason series when they were swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Saturday, May 7 at 10 a.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Odds

  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs (+100) / Lightning (-120)
  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) / Lightning -1.5 (+205)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105)/Under 6.5 (-115)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Prediction

The Maple Leafs are two wins away from their first playoff series victory since 2004, yet they tend to make things difficult on themselves. Toronto is 4-9 in its last 13 playoff games after a win, including its 5-3 loss in Game 2 against Tampa Bay.

If you believe this will be a long series, and I’ve been saying all along I do, Tampa Bay should be able to get back on track in Game 4. The Lightning have won 14 straight postseason games following a loss dating back to 2019.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Pick

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

The Maple Leafs look like the better team in this series, and Tampa Bay looks like the club playing catchup. But as I’ve said all year, I’ll believe in Toronto as a bona fide Cup contender once I see them win a playoff round. I’ll believe in them to win this series if they win Game 4.

Tampa Bay ML is the pick. Take them on the puck line if you’re feeling brave.

moneyline

-115

Lightning to Beat Maple Leafs

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Over is 3-0 in this series, although bettors needed those two empty-netters for that wager to hit in Game 3. Still, with the firepower in these games, and the parade to the penalty box that’s been going on, there should be at least seven goals again in Game 4.

over-under

-105

Maple Leafs @ Lightning: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Best Parlay

Lightning-Maple Leafs Parlay (+270) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline (-115)
  • Over 5.5 Goals (-175)
  • Over 1.5 First-Period Goals (-160)

WAGER: 1 Unit

We’ve stubbornly lost on this parlay in consecutive games — unfortunately, only the Lightning losing kept it from hitting in Game 3. We like it better than ever for Game 4 since, as stated above, the Lightning have been excellent after losses in the postseason.

If you think Toronto will build a 3-1 lead, the odds for them ML instead of Tampa Bay jump to +280. But given the likelihood of this series going seven games, taking Tampa Bay is the better choice, I believe.

prop bet

+270

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PREVIOUSLY: Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 3 Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs-Tampa Bay Lightning series shifts to Florida as each team will try to take the lead of their Eastern Conference first-round series in a pivotal Game 3 at Amalie Arena on Friday.

Tampa Bay’s power play woke up in Game 2, scoring three man-advantage goals on seven opportunities in its 5-3 victory. Lightning defenseman and power-play quarterback Victor Hedman registered three assists and the team’s first goal of the game, spearheading their series-evening win. Tampa Bay (+115 moneyline) built a 5-1 third-period lead and hung on.

Maple Leafs star center and Hart Trophy favorite Auston Matthews had two assists and is tied with linemate Mitch Marner for the NHL lead in playoff points (5) through two games.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Friday, May 6 at 10 a.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Odds

  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-105) / Lightning (-115)
  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250) / Lightning -1.5 (+205)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100)/Under 6.5 (-120)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Prediction

After being shut out for the first time in 52 playoff games, the Lightning struck early on Hedman’s buzzer-beating power-play goal in the first period then broke the game open with man-advantage goals from star forwards Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, with Brandon Hagel‘s even-strength goal sandwiched between.

The Lightning, unsurprisingly, have been excellent on home ice all year with the sixth-best points percentage (.732) and seventh-most wins (27) in home games this season. Tampa Bay and Toronto split their meetings at Amalie Arena during the regular season with the Maple Leafs claiming a 6-2 win on April 4 and the Lightning blasting a Matthews-less Toronto squad 8-1 on April 21.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Pick

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 3

This is looking like a long, entertaining series. But with Tampa Bay heading home, expect it to build a 2-1 series advantage.

Tampa Bay Moneyline is the pick. Take the Lightning on the Puck Line if you’re feeling brave.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (+100)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The winning team in each of the first two games has scored five goals. As long as the losing side doesn’t get shut out — each of Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy‘s regular-season shutouts came on home ice — the Over should be a lock in every game, which is exactly what we as hockey fans want.

over-under

+100

Maple Leafs @ Lightning: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 3 Best Parlay

Maple Leafs-Lightning Parlay (+260) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline (-115)
  • Over 5.5 Goals (-171)
  • Over 1.5 First-Period Goals (-135)

WAGER: 1 Unit

This is the same parlay we put together for Game 2, which unfortunately didn’t hit due to the fact there was only one first-period goal despite the eight-goal onslaught. We still believe in these teams’ offenses and feel like this parlay is destined to hit in Tampa.

If you’re unsure about the Lightning and are feeling frisky, take out Tampa Bay ML and add an overtime prop, and the odds skyrocket to (+725).

over-under

+260

TOR-TBL Parlay: TBL Moneyline & More

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PREVIOUSLY: Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction

The Toronto Maple Leafs will try to put the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning on the ropes in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round series on Wednesday.

Hart Trophy favorite Auston Matthews scored his first two playoff goals of 2022 in Toronto’s 5-0 Game 1 win that paid out for Leafs puck line bettors (-1.5, +190). The Maple Leafs, who haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, will now try to take a 2-0 series lead for the first time since their opening-round series against the New York Islanders in 2002.

Tampa Bay, which has won eight straight playoff rounds, will try to avoid falling behind 2-0 for the first time since it was swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019. The Lightning were shut out for the first time in the playoffs since Game 7 of their Eastern Conference Final series against the Washington Capitals in 2018, a span of 52 postseason games.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Wednesday, May 4 at 10 a.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Odds

  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-130) / Lightning (+110)
  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) / Lightning +1.5 (-230)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+105)/Under 6.5 (-125)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Prediction

The Lightning had every opportunity to seize Game 1 early. They had a pair of first-period power plays, including a five-minute man-advantage after Toronto forward Kyle Clifford was ejected for boarding. The Leafs killed off both power plays to build momentum and then struck first on defenseman Jake Muzzin‘s goal late in the frame and never looked back.

Still, this should be a long series. But if Tampa Bay has any hope of winning, it better take Game 2.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Pick

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

The Maple Leafs built momentum early thanks to the early penalty kills, which were aggressive and didn’t let Tampa Bay set up shop in the offensive zone. Lightning coach Jon Cooper lamented his team’s play in the first game — the Lightning had just 24 shots on goal in Game 1.

Expect Tampa Bay to put forth a more spirited effort in Game 2.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

It seems like the Maple Leafs are going to score goals in this series. Tampa Bay should too. Plus, the odds here seem too good to pass up.

over-under

+105

Lightning @ Maple Leafs: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 2 Best Parlay

Maple Leafs-Lightning Parlay (+325) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline (+110)
  • Over 5.5 Goals (-160)
  • Over 1.5 First-Period Goals (-135)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Lightning-Maple Leafs Game 2 Parlay

I love this parlay. There should definitely be at least six goals scored. There should definitely be at least two first-period goals. If you don’t trust the Lightning to win, and want to swap them for the Maple Leafs, the odds on BetMGM are roughly (+260) for that.

But I don’t think the Lightning will lose two straight.

prop bet

+325

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PREVIOUSLY: Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning will enter the playoffs as an underdog without home-ice advantage for the second straight year when they face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference first round.

The Lightning have won eight straight postseason series, and the Maple Leafs haven’t advanced in the Stanley Cup playoffs since 2003-04 — Toronto has lost seven straight playoff series, six straight in the first round, and has lost in a win-or-go-home game in four straight seasons.

Still, there’s reason to believe this is the year things will change for Toronto. The Leafs are led by Hart Trophy-favorite Auston Matthews, who became the first 60-goal scorer in the NHL since Tampa Bay sniper Steven Stamkos did so in 2011-12. Toronto scored 315 goals, second in the league behind only the Florida Panthers, and had six players score at least 20 goals — Matthews, Mitch Marner (35), William Nylander (34), John Tavares (27), Michael Bunting (23), Ilya Mikheyev (21).

Even as the underdog, the Lightning are formidable. Tampa Bay’s 110 points was its third-most in franchise history, and it advanced from this exact seed to the Cup a year ago. The Lightning are led by Stamkos, one of their six 20-goal scorers, perennial Norris Trophy candidate Victor Hedman, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, the 2019 Vezina Trophy winner who has been a finalist for the award each of the past four seasons.

All NHL gameday odds are current as of Monday, May 2 at 12 p.m. ET, and are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Odds

  • Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-125) / Lightning (+105)
  • Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) / Lightning +1.5 (-230)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100)/Under 6.5 (-120)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Prediction

Despite their lack of playoff success, the Maple Leafs are a chic pick in the Eastern Conference — though that may have more to do with the fact they have one of the largest and most verbose fanbases in the NHL.

Still, we expect this series to go the distance, which means Tampa Bay will need to steal a game in Toronto. Each team won twice in their season series, although the Lightning did defeat the Matthews-less Leafs 8-1 in Tampa just 11 days ago.

The Lightning are capable of winning games away from Amalie Arena this time of year. They won the Cup in a bubble in 2020 and went 7-4 in road games last year, including victories in Games 1 and 2 in each of their first two playoff rounds against the Panthers and Carolina Hurricanes in 2021.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Pick

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

The Maple Leafs will win some games in this series, but if you have the opportunity to get the Lightning with plus-money, you have to take it. The crowd in Toronto expects to be rabid — the Leafs haven’t played a home playoff game in front of fans since 2019 — but the Lightning shouldn’t be intimidated.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Best Bets

Over 6.5 Goals (+100)

WAGER: 1 Unit

These are two of the highest-scoring teams in hockey, and Toronto’s goaltending has been a topic of concern all season. Although Vasilevskiy and Maple Leafs’ goalie Jack Campbell are two bonafide No. 1 goalies, we like the Over’s odds given the firepower in this series as our NHL bet of the day.

over-under

+100

Lightning @ Maple Leafs: OVER 6.5 Goals

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 1 Best Parlay

Maple Leafs-Lightning Parlay (+450) at BetMGM

  • Lightning Moneyline (+105)
  • Over 5.5 Goals (-160)
  • Steven Stamkos Anytime Goal Scorer (+160)

WAGER: 0.5 Units

Stamkos had a resurgent season, quietly finishing with 42 goals and 106 points — the same number as Matthews. Stamkos, who grew up in the Toronto suburb of Markham, Ontario, has 22 goals and 58 points in 45 career games against the Leafs — the second-most points and points per game of any opponent.

If Tampa Bay wins Game 1, as we expect it to, either Stamkos or star wing Nikita Kucherov will probably need to score to do so. Stamkos is just more likely to put the puck in the net.

prop bet

+450

TOR-TBL Parlay: Over 5.5 Goals & More

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Previously: Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds To Win Series

  • Maple Leafs (-130)
  • Lightning (+110)

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series Prediction

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series Pick

Lightning in 7 Games

Bet against the Lightning at your own risk, especially against the core that has lost six straight clinching games — four of which have come on Scotiabank Arena ice, albeit with one taking place in the 2020 bubble. Tampa Bay enters the playoffs with an 8-3-1 record in its last 12 games with convincing wins over playoff teams Toronto, Florida, and the Nashville Predators in that span.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning Series Best Bets

Lightning to Win the Series (+110) at Caesars

WAGER: 1 Unit

As we said above, take the opportunity to bet the Lightning at plus-money. Tampa Bay will probably lose in the playoffs at some point — no team has three-peated since the 1980-83 New York Islanders — but this probably won’t be the series.

prop bet

+110

Lightning: Win Series vs Maple Leafs

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Bet $20, Payout $42

Lightning to Win the Series in 7 Games (+190) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Toronto has played four straight series that ended in its final game — three were best-of-7 series and the other was a best-of-5 — and with two evenly-matched teams, we expect this one to go the distance, too.

prop bet

+190

Lightning: Defeat Maple Leafs in 7 Games

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Bet $20, Payout $58

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