Approaching NFL Week 5, it is important to note that this is the final 16-game NFL betting slate until Week 15 since bye weeks will commence next week.
With each team playing four games, there is no more real vs make-believe, as we know which teams are for real and which teams are not. While some teams may be overachieving and underachieving, it’s time to start buying in one way or another since anything more than a one- to two-game stretch is no longer a fluke.
Entering NFL Week 5, my Best Bets record is 12-13 and I am still down two units. It was another 3-3 week, which busted on unit betting, but one of those wins was on the Falcons moneyline at plus-money.
Atlanta has now cashed plus-money NFL moneylines two weeks in a row, so it may be wise to keep pressing value bets like those.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Best Bet
Bills -14 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
These large NFL spreads have gotten the best of me through the early portion of 2022. However, I am overly confident in the Bills to steamroll the lost Steelers and cover this 14-point spread.
In the past two games, the Bills are 1-1 in matchups decided by fewer than three points. A team constructed to devastate and destroy, look for Buffalo to get back on track and take out an inferior opponent Sunday afternoon.
While the Steelers made their highly-anticipated quarterback change from Mitchell Trubisky to Kenny Pickett, this will be the rookie’s first career start on the road against one of the league’s powerhouse teams.
While Pickett did provide a spark, completing 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards with a pair of rushing scores, his only three incompletions were interceptions. Good luck, rookie.
The Bills’ offense will get back on track and easily cover the 14 points Sunday. Buffalo is 4-0-1 against the spread in their past five home games and 9-1-2 ATS in their past 12 facing teams with a losing record.
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Best Bet
Jaguars -7 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The NFL Week 5 Texans vs Jaguars matchup is a statement game for Jacksonville. While the Jaguars are 2-2 and exceeding early expectations, the Texans have defeated their AFC South rivals in eight straight games.
If the Jaguars want us to believe they have taken the appropriate step forward to challenge for the AFC South crown, then they must handily beat up on the Texans Sunday.
Houston is 0-3-1, while the Jaguars are tied with the Titans at 2-2 on top of the division. The latter also fields the superior coach, quarterback, and roster from top to bottom.
There are good and bad times to use NFL betting trends. This matchup is time to ignore the trends, which favor Houston.
This is the best Jaguars team since they made their AFC Championship game run in 2017, which was also the last time they defeated the Texans straight up.
However, I will give you a new trend favoring the Jags. In both of Jacksonville’s wins this season, they have covered the spread and have outscored opponents, 62-10. Those opponents were the Colts and Chargers.
They get the Texans at home in Week 5.
Do with this what you will.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Best Bet
Over 48.5 Total Points (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Falcons are 4-0 ATS this season and are eight-point underdogs on the road. While I do like the Falcons to cover, it is still risky since they have not covered against the Buccaneers in each of the past three meetings, which is why I am attacking the Over.
While the Buccaneers offense was off to a slow start this season, they managed their best offensive output of the year in last week’s loss to the Chiefs, racking up 31 points. Meanwhile, the Falcons deploy the eighth-best scoring offense in the NFL (25.8 points per game).
Despite being down their most explosive playmaker in Cordarrelle Patterson (knee), the Falcons have enough offensive firepower to put up points against Tampa Bay.
We also know that Atlanta’s defense isn’t their strong suit, and Tom Brady has their number. Points will fly this week, which is why I like the Over in one of the higher NFL Over/Under totals of the slate.
The Over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings between the Buccaneers and the Falcons and 4-0 in the past four games at Tampa Bay.
Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Rams Best Bet
Cowboys +4.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
The Cowboys are 3-1 ATS this season, including 3-0 in their past three games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. And although there were rumors that Dak Prescott could return, the reports suggest that Prescott can not yet grip the football, putting his status in doubt for Week 5 at the Rams.
However, while the Rams are 3-1 against Dallas in the Sean McVay era, this could be a game that the Cowboys steal at (+180) moneyline odds. Still, I am playing it safe and taking the points.
The Cowboys’ strength is their defense, ranking seventh in total yards allowed (308.5) and third in scoring (15.5). However, what they really do well is rush the passer, which is the Rams’ greatest handicap.
Los Angeles has conceded 16 sacks, while the Cowboys have sacked the quarterback 15 times in four games.
The Rams’ offense is also predictable. It is Cooper Kupp or bust. And when they bust, they have no run game to show for it. A one-dimensional, predictable offense with a statuesque signal-caller is not the way to best this Cowboys team.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their past five road games. Back the Cowboys to cover.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Best Bet
Ravens -3 (-118) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
While the Bengals swept the Ravens last season, the latter is 5-2 straight up in their past seven meetings. Coming off a home loss to the Bills, the Ravens will come out angry and hungry for a win against their AFC North rivals.
The Browns, Ravens, and Bengals are all 2-2, and this Week 5 Bengals vs Ravens tilt has significant AFC North division winner implications written all over it.
Although the Bengals started out the year slow, not only losing but also failing to cover in the first two games, they have won and covered in the two games since. Meanwhile, the Ravens have see-sawed wins and losses through the first quarter of the year.
In a game that should feature a high score to pair with a score-for-score slugfest, I will err on the side of the difference-maker in Lamar Jackson. When it is all said and done, I trust him to make more plays at home and out-duel Joe Burrow.
The favorite is 4-1 in the past five meetings between the Bengals and Ravens. In this scenario, the Ravens are the betting favorites.
San Francisco 49ers vs Carolina Panthers Best Bet
Under 39.5 Total Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 2 Units
The 49ers’ defense is one of, if not, the best unit in the NFL. They are a top-two unit across the board in all of the top statistical categories. Saying they will be tested in Week 5 by the Panthers would be an outright lie. The Panthers’ offense is one of the worst in the NFL, thanks to Baker Mayfield and Matt Rhule.
On the other side, the Panthers’ defense is playing well, ranking 13th in scoring (21.3 ppg), while the 49ers’ offense has yet to find its way, ranking 28th in scoring (17.8 ppg).
On paper and from what we have seen from both clubs, Under 39.5 is the play in this matchup.
The Under is 9-1 in the 49ers’ past 10 games, and 3-1 in the four games this season that the Panthers have taken part in, hitting three consecutive times.