The NFL betting season has entered the bye week portion of the calendar. The next time we get a 16-game schedule is Week 15. That means a shortage of games to consider for best bets and potentially fewer wagers.
The goal each week is to give you the best options available as early as possible. Offering a bet just to fill a specific quota is a great way to lose and lose trust of bettors.
That won’t happen here.
If a week/s has a smaller number of wagers, it’s on purpose to make sure you get the best bets, at the best numbers, with the research and work done so you can click and hopefully win.
Heading into Week 5, my best bets are 11-12 (-3.01 units, down 0.5u from Week 4). My wins from Week 4 won with flying colors, while my losses were bombs.
Better than sweating a close win/loss, I guess.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet
Jaguars @ Bills -5.5 (-108)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Jacksonville may be across the pond waiting for the arrival of Buffalo, but that does not mean it has any advantage after playing a slog of a contest against Atlanta Week 4.
The Jags have been a pass funnel to start 2023, allowing the 11th-most pass attempts and 10th-most yards through the air. That is compared to the eighth-fewest rush yards and the third-fewest yards after contact.
Week 5 will be a real test for both phases of their defense with Josh Allen leading a three-headed rushing attack, and a WR duo that complements each other’s strengths.
Travis Etienne Jr. will have to win early and often to keep the Jaguars on the field and the Bills off. Buffalo is allowing 116 rush yards per game, but it may not matter if the Jags’ defense can’t slow Buffalo.
Buffalo is also opportunistic when leading, more than doubling its INT/TD rate with eight interceptions compared to three touchdowns allowed in the passing game.
NFL Week 5 ATS Best Bets
Giants @ Dolphins -10.5 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I would take the Giants if I had any confidence that LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) would play Week 5, as well as any sign of health coming for his linemates. He was a DNP the last two days of practice before Monday night’s blowout loss to Seattle.
Center John Michael Schmitz left their loss with a shoulder injury that prevented him from returning.
New York’s response was to move Ben Bredeson to center, weakening the left guard and center positions.
Miami is coming off a loss where the offense was limited and defense exposed by a top-tier offense. The Giants’ defense has not limited much, and the offense could be without three offensive line starters and has zero threats in the passing game.
Wheels up for the Dolphins offense looking to bounce back.
It would not be surprising to see Miami cover the 49.5 Over/Under on its own.
NFL Week 5 Over/Under Best Bets
Saints @ Patriots Under 40.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
When in dire straits and trying to move the ball through the air, the Saints and Patriots are two of the best at stopping pass offenses. Both are top 12 in pass yards allowed while also ranking no worse than 16th in pass attempts against.
The two defenses have combined to allow eight passing scores, and the Saints have picked off five pass attempts (and 20 pass breakups).
That limits Mac Jones as a passer (two INT in two home games) with a subpar receiving corps. It is unknown if Derek Carr (AC joint) will start once again, and we know Jameis Winston is nothing more than a capable backup at this point in his career.
A Winston start could mean a jump in total sacks for the Pats after averaging 2.5 per game to start this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson and Alvin Kamara have their work cut out for them in the running game. Both defenses are top 13 in yards allowed and have 17 run stuffs, according to Sports Info Solutions. The Saints and Patriots run defenses are also in a three-way tie with the fewest tackles broken against the run (two).
Titans @ Colts Over 42.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Colts defense is bottom 10 in pass and rush yards allowed and get Derrick Henry one week after he finally started to get going. Ryan Tannehill isn’t it, but having DeAndre Hopkins, Chig Okonkwo, Tyjae Spears, and maybe Treylon Burks (knee) doesn’t hurt.
It’s narrative week for Indy with the return of Jonathan Taylor expected back from Injured Reserve. Anthony Richardson is also in good position against a below average pass defense after he had a horrid passing game despite the Colts’ near comeback against the Rams.
The Colts can bring Tennessee’s run defense to its knees with Taylor and Zack Moss paired with Richardson’s dynamic running. The rookie needs to pass for closer to 60% like he did Weeks 1 and 2 to get a complete offensive effort.
See a full list of NFL Over/Under totals for Week 5 and let me know if there are others I should have considered.
NFL Week 5 Moneyline Best Bets
Texans (+105) @ Falcons
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Caesars is the only sportsbook with a +EV moneyline option for the Texans. Most books have the Texans at +1 or +1.5 at (-110), so if you think Houston will win, the ML is a better wager.
C.J. Stroud has been aces in his first month of NFL action and gets a Falcons defense that is susceptible through the air. The Texans can be had on the ground, and neither team has been great on defense, which is why the spread is one point.
Through four games, we can say with confidence that Stroud has been better than Desmond Ridder, and in a game where one series can decide the game, I want the better QB with the better coach in an offensive scheme that is hitting against good defenses.
