Week 10 ended on a sour note as the Bills “Billed" all over themselves, preventing my five picks from going 4-1. Instead, it was a 3-2 week and a profit of +0.52 units.
Week 11 gives us the return of the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins. On bye are the Saints, Falcons, Colts, and Patriots – or no team that would be worth the headache of wagering on. The NFL’s overseas games have also come to a close, so no more early-morning football, sadly.
Jeff Hicks’ 2023 NFL Best Bets record: 25-27 (-5.93 units)
*All odds and lines are current as of 10:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 14.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet
Raiders vs Dolphins -11.5 (-114)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This line is (-12) everywhere else, with odds anywhere between (-109) and (-115). This number is worth wagering to (-13.5) without major juice.
Simply put, the Dolphins are coming off a bye with minimal injury concerns. They get to open the second half of their season with a home matchup against a rookie quarterback for a team that’s traveling from southern Nevada to South Beach.
Vegas will have to find a way to slow down Miami’s high-powered offense without having a strong pass rush. The Raiders are 15th in sack percentage and have to get past an offensive line allowing a 4.6% sack rate. That disparity will allow Tua Tagovailoa enough time to find his wideout duo, as well as target Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane, assuming the latter is activated from IR.
[pick id= “158138"]
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NFL Week 11 ATS Best Bets
Chargers vs Packers +3 (+100)
BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
If you want to take the Packers outright, you can get them at plus-money everywhere. The majority of sportsbooks are at (+3.5) at (-120), so getting (+3) with no juice is viable.
I don’t like either of these teams, full stop. Neither can get out of its own way, especially the Packers with Jordan Love under center. The Packers offense struggled against a weak Steelers secondary on the road, which is not a far-fetched outcome. The problem is the offense missed multiple big plays that should have ensured a road win.
Enter the Chargers, who couldn’t defend against Detroit’s 1-2 running-back punch. Green Bay’s backfield is not as explosive as the one in the Motor City, but it is good and has been leaned on to make life easier for Love.
I also want to note that the Packers defense has been above average all season and is only allowing 19.5 points per game at home. The Chargers have shied away from stretching the field since losing Mike Williams for the season. I expect that to continue in a tough road game.
[pick id= “158139"]
NFL Week 11 Over/Under Best Bets
Cardinals vs Texans Over 47.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Few would have expected this game to be one to pay attention to based on injuries and season-long expectations, but this is going to be a blast with Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud squaring off.
What’s even better is that both defenses are just mediocre. The Texans are allowing 21.8 points per game at home (21.0 on the road), while the Cards open the end zone for business away from the desert (25.6 road ppg allowed, 27.0 at home).
Both QBs have shown that they can elevate the talent around them. Houston could also get Nico Collins (calf) back in Week 11. The more the merrier for Stroud’s target distribution.
[pick id= “158140"]
Steelers vs Browns Under 37 Points (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Steelers-Browns is the opposite of Cardinals-Texans. Nothing about this game is appealing unless you enjoy bad QB play and defenses pounding them into the ground.
Deshaun Watson can add an ankle ailment to the unknown severity of his shoulder injury, and the Browns offensive line is short on tackles. The Steelers lost LB Kwon Alexander for the season but have had numerous players step up to help fill the void.
Even with notable injuries mounting, neither team can move the ball with consistency.
Each squad enters Week 11 at 6-3, which means the winner takes over second place in the loaded AFC North. That edge is more than enough to have both teams looking to throw the kitchen sink at each other when they their defenses are on the field.
[pick id= “158141"]
NFL Week 11 Moneyline Best Bets
Vikings (+120) vs Broncos
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The vibes are great in Minnesota and Denver after recent success for both squads. A once-forgettable matchup is now very much on my radar.
Josh Dobbs has turned lemons into every delicious lemon-based dish and drink ever after playing well for Arizona and Minnesota. It’s difficult to criticize what the Vikings have accomplished with injuries to Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins. The best may be ahead, especially with Jefferson on the verge of returning from IR in time for this road game.
Dobbs and company have a great opportunity to cement their playoff status in a winnable matchup. Denver is 1-3 as a home favorite, while Minnesota is on a four-game win streak that has included three wins as the underdog, going 2-0 as road dogs and 4-1 after a win.
This game being less than a field goal spread is correct, so taking a ML approach is the only way I’ll wager on this contest.
[pick id= “158142"]
