One could argue Super Bowl 59 is a matchup of the best team in each conference.
The AFC’s No. 1 seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, will square off against the second-seeded San Francisco 49ers. KC is the defending Super Bowl champ and will play in its five Super Bowl in six seasons, looking for a three-peat. The Eagles are trying to avenge their loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.
There are storylines galore. But here are some marquee matchups to consider for this Super Bowl rematch.
All Super Bowl odds used are current as of Thursday, Jan. 30.
Super Bowl Matchup: Saquon Barkley vs Chiefs Run Defense
Saquon Barkley is having one of the best running back seasons we’ve ever seen. The former Giant has followed up a 2,000+ rushing yard season with 442 yards on the ground during this year’s playoff run.
While it’s highly unlikely for a defense to shut down Barkley while running behind this elite Eagles’ offensive line, the question becomes whether the Chiefs can slow him down and limit explosive plays.
Keep tabs on the best Super Bowl lines from our top sportsbooks
Kansas City came into the playoffs ranked 8th in Rush EPA, allowing only 3.88 yards per carry, which ranked 2nd in the NFL.
But we’ve seen some cracks in their armor throughout the postseason, where both Joe Mixon (18 ATT, 88 YDS, 4.9 YPC) and James Cook (13 ATT, 85 YDS, 6.5 YPC) were able to have productive days.
It’s likely that Barkley will be able to continue cruising along in this matchup. Expect another efficient day on the ground with at least 115 rushing yards.
SB59 Bet: Saquon Barkley Over 114.5 Rush Yards (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Barkley has rushed for at least 115 yards in nine of his last 12 games, including each matchup throughout the playoffs.
Expect the Eagles to continue to make Saquon the focal point of their offense.
We’ve seen explosive plays, including a 60-yard touchdown run as his first carry against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship.
That type of game-breaking ability can allow Barkley to easily surpass this prop.
Super Bowl Matchup: Jalen Hurts vs Chiefs Pass Defense
Opposing teams have been forced to air it out vs the Chiefs quite often this season, averaging 33.2 pass attempts per game.
This is because Kansas City is stout in run defense and their games are usually close.
There’s a good chance that Hurts will have to throw more often in this matchup. In games where Hurts attempted 30+ passes, he averaged 259.3 yards per game.
With the Eagles as short underdogs, it’s likely that Hurts will have more passing volume here. I can already envision a scenario where it’s within three points in the fourth quarter, so Hurts is forced to play quick and air it out to try to get into field goal range.
The Chiefs are more vulnerable through the air (13th in EPA) than on the ground (8th in EPA). It will be interesting to see if Hurts can exploit this.
SB59 Bet: Jalen Hurts Over 210.5 Pass Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
We’re getting a low bar on Jalen Hurts passing yards at 210.5, especially when you consider the projected game script with this one likely coming down to the wire.
The Chiefs are allowing 234.3 passing yards per game this season, which is well above Hurts’ prop here.
Even though the Eagles are run-heavy, we’ve seen Hurts air it out effectively when needed, putting up 246 yards against the Commanders in the NFC Championship last week.
Back Hurts to go Over this number against a pass-funnel Chiefs defense.
Super Bowl Matchup: Patrick Mahomes vs Vic Fangio
Eagles’ defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is considered to be one of the best in the NFL We’ve seen the former Broncos’ DC have some success vs Patrick Mahomes — check out this tweet from @Clevta on X:
Mahomes has 20 negative EPA games in 131 career starts — two of his nine worst games have come against Fangio defenses.
It will be interesting to see if Fangio can scheme up another strong game plan to limit Mahomes.
With that said, Mahomes is 8-0 vs Fangio teams, so it may not be enough to dethrone the king.
SB59 Bet: Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions (-132) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
There’s a reasonable chance that this elite Eagles defense coached by Fangio will limit big plays from the Chiefs in this game.
But given the lack of explosiveness in this backfield that includes Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco, it figures to be a pass-heavy game script for Mahomes.
More passes and limited explosive plays bodes well for Over 23.5 completions.
Add in the fact that this game could be decided by a last-minute field goal, where Mahomes may have to dink-and-dunk his way down the field, and you can see why this is an appealing wager.
How To Identify Key Super Bowl Matchups
The best way to identify Super Bowl matchups is by digging into the stats. When you look inside the numbers, you can easily find the matchups that will play a big role in any game, not just the Super Bowl.
Doing so will allow you to find matchups you can exploit from a betting perspective. When you find a notable strength versus a glaring weakness, that is a bet that you want to exploit.
