One could argue Super Bowl 60 is one of the most surprising matchups in NFL history.
Both the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks were underdogs to make the playoffs this year, let alone get to the Super Bowl. Instead, each finished as a top-two seed, with the Seahawks looking like the best team in football.
There are storylines galore. But here are some marquee matchups to consider for Super Bowl 60.
All Super Bowl odds used are current as of Thursday, Jan. 29.
Super Bowl Matchup: Kenneth Walker III vs Patriots Run Defense
Kenneth Walker III has looked phenomenal during this postseason run. With Zach Charbonnet out with a knee injury, the Seahawks have leaned on Walker as their bellcow.
Walker has answered the bell, rushing for 116 yards against the 49ers and 62 yards vs the Rams. He’s also added a combined 78 yards through the air during this stretch.
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However, up next is a tough spot vs a Patriots run defense that has been a brick wall with defensive tackle Milton Williams in the lineup.
New England has held RJ Harvey (37 yards), Woody Marks (17 yards), and Kimani Vidal (31 yards) in check throughout the playoffs.
SB60 Bet: Kenneth Walker III Under 74.5 Rush Yards (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Despite the tough matchup for Walker, oddsmakers have still set a high bar at 74.5 rushing yards.
I understand that it’s a projected positive game script with the Seahawks as 4.5-point favorites, which means Walker could get a lot of work while playing with the lead.
However, 75+ rushing yards is a tough task against this defense. It’s more likely that Walker will do his damage as a receiver.
Super Bowl Matchup: Drake Maye vs Seahawks Pass Defense
Drake Maye has had a phenomenal second year in the NFL, emerging as a favorite for the MVP, along with Matthew Stafford.
But he’s struggled throughout the playoffs, facing tough defenses in the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos. It doesn’t get any easier vs the Seahawks.
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Seattle has limited opposing quarterbacks to 6.03 yards per attempt this season, which ranked 1st in the NFL. If we look at the Seahawks’ game log, we see that only Matthew Stafford had success against this group.
With how Maye has played during this playoff run, it’s going to be tough sledding through the air against this defense.
SB60 Bet: Drake Maye Under 33.5 Longest Completion (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Seahawks can limit big plays downfield not only because they have a talented defense, but also because they run two-high coverage at the highest rate in the NFL.
With both safeties back deep, it’s difficult (unless you’re Stafford) to air it out downfield.
With that in mind, we’ll ride with Maye’s longest completion to go under 33.5 yards as my NFL pick of the day.
Super Bowl Matchup: Rhamondre Stevenson vs Seahawks Run Defense
Rhamondre Stevenson has been the bellcow for the Patriots throughout the playoffs. In the AFC Championship, Stevenson out-touched TreVeyon Henderson 25-to-3.
However, the Seahawks defense is also tough to run on, allowing 3.54 yards per carry this season, which ranked 1st in the NFL.
Against such a fast group like this, it would make sense for the Patriots to mix in Henderson more than they did last week. The rookie is a more explosive runner than Stevenson, giving them another look here.
SB60 Bet: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Considering the matchup against the Seahawks’ run defense, 50.5 rushing yards looks like a high bar for Stevenson. Aside from a likely inefficient day, there’s also the risk of the game script.
The Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs in this game, so the Seahawks are projected to play with a lead. If the Pats are trailing in the game, that means less rushing volume for Stevenson, making it more difficult to get to 51+ rushing yards.
If I’m right that Henderson will get more work this week than last, that’s another variable that’s in our favor with the under here.
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How To Identify Key Super Bowl Matchups
The best way to identify Super Bowl matchups is by digging into the stats. When you look inside the numbers, you can easily find the matchups that will play a big role in any game, not just the Super Bowl.
Doing so will allow you to find matchups you can exploit from a betting perspective. When you find a notable strength versus a glaring weakness, that is a bet that you want to exploit.
