Super Bowl 58 gives DFS football players two of the top layers at their position, as well as a myriad of questionable, lower-priced players that are sure to give you one final sweat before the end of the NFL season.
Unlike the drawn-out time between Championship Week and the Super Bowl, I’m ready to talk DraftKings Showdown DFS, as well as put together a Sleeper DFS Picks slip.
Super Bowl DFS Picks: Flex
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($12,000)
In terms of volume plays, CMC offers the highest floor and TD upside than any player in this game. The 27-year old has had at least 17 carries, 5 targets, and 4 catches in two playoff games, paired with two rushing scores in each contest.
The Chiefs have allowed 5.1 yards per carry in the playoffs. That opens the passing game for his teammates, as well as himself.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($9,200)
Samuel is only $400 more than Brandon Aiyuk, which means both should see rostership. Samuel has the better matchup as a receiver and also should see work in the backfield.
Samuel’s consistent movement in San Francisco’s offensive formation is an important factor in how the 49ers attack the Chiefs defense. K.C. is arguably better at all three levels on defense, but if the jack-of-all Samuel gets a few yards of space because of his alignment away from a defender, a three-yard gain could be a TD.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs ($10,600)
The way to get different would be to put Mahomes at Captain, but I think that gets more popular the closer we get to kick-off. Mahomes’ price tag and lack of 300-yard passing games, and the subsequent bonus, takes him out of CPT consideration. His 300-yard games have dried up to the point that he has one since October 22.
We all know that his lack of passing yards can/will likely get made up by scrambling and throwing TDs. It’s a trade-off I am okay with in a Flex spot.
Looking to build on your fantasy football Super Bowl game? Combine DFS with betting NFL player props for Super Bowl 58
Use these DFS Super Bowl tips and our Super Bowl props to place bets with these Super Bowl LVIII lines.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($3,000)
Valdes-Scantling has once again come from nowhere to be vital to Kansas City’s postseason success, which will drive his rostership up to 25%. As someone who avoids creating too many lineups and prefers single entry GPPs, MVS makes sense in a couple lineups if you build up to 10, and one in five or less builds.
The veteran should be lined up opposite 49ers CB Ambry Thomas, who has been a turnstile this postseason. A lot of DFS players are aware of this, hence being underweight on what should be an obvious play.
More Super Bowl DFS Flex Picks
- Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs ($10,200)
- Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers ($10,000)
- Kyle Juszczyk, RB, San Francisco 49ers ($800)
- Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($1,400)
Super Bowl DFS Picks: Captains
Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs ($11,400)
If I had zero fingers and toes, I’d still have enough to count how many players in the 49ers secondary would scare me away from playing Rice at CPT.
Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown went for 7/87/0 on 11 targets, and that could be a baseline for the rookie Chiefs wideout. A lot of attention will be put on Kelce that any one-on-one situation for Rice and a DB will be exploited by Mahomes. If the 49ers cannot find a way to limit Rice, it could be game over because of another Chiefs skill position player.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs ($12,000)
The biggest surprise of the playoffs has been the 49ers rush defense. Their 6.3 yards per carry the past three games is 2-plus yards above their season average.
Pacheco is controlled chaos out of the Chiefs backfield and is the lynchpin to the Chiefs offense without receiving depth. If he gashes the 49ers defense the way Green Bay and Detroit did, it would be difficult to expect the 49ers to win.
Despite a low YPC, Pacheco has recorded a rushing TD in each postseason game and has caught each of his six targets, a plus with DK’s PPR scoring format.
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers ($13,800)
Like I wrote above, Samuel is vital to San Fran’s success. As great and successful as McCaffrey is/was/will be, Samuel’s production is what turned the tide in the NFC Championship. Samuel’s biggest test will be the Chiefs linebackers, but if he has space when facing them, he will have the edge.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers ($9,600)
Kittle has had two different games in the playoffs, but what draws me most to him is the expected dismissal of him at CPT. Multiple projections across the industry have him below 10% rostership at CPT on the high end.
Kittle only had four TDs outside of his trio collected against the Cowboys and did so on the 10th-most catches at the position. For fantasy, that put him as the TE3 on the season. It makes sense that he was the TE1 according to EPA and Pro Football Focus.
Favorite Super Bowl DFS Stack
CPT Rashee Rice with Patrick Mahomes & George Kittle
Rostering three players that could all be CPT in a stack works, especially with Kittle over Samuel as a way to get unique with popular players.
If you want to get weird, replacing Rice with Pacheco gives you both aspects of the Chiefs offense, as well as the forgotten target for the 49ers.
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Sleeper DFS Picks
Sleeper DFS has been a huge hit since entering the market for the 2023 NFL season. Similar to other DFS Pick ‘Em options, you get better payouts with more picks. What Sleeper offers is better payout escalators depending on the pick you make. The slip I built below shows not only my picks, but their boost escalators if they hit.
A quick explanation for this four-pack of picks:
- Mahomes is the current Sleeper free square.
- Chase Young hasn’t had a full sack since his second game as a 49er on Nov. 19.
- If I am going to recommend Samuel as a top DFS play as a Flex and CPT, then his receiving yardage total is of utmost interest.
- MVS has two receptions in two of three playoff games, and nearly 50% of games played this season. It’s a low bar against a susceptible secondary.
How to Play Super Bowl DFS
Tournaments
You need to get contrarian when joining tournaments in Super Bowl DFS. That’s because it is a single-game slate, so if you create a popular lineup, you will be splitting the prize with several other players, even if you finish in first place.
You don’t want to join a contest with a $40,000 prize to 1st, only to get about $900 since you’re splitting it with over 44 other people. The goal here is to be the only winner of the big pot.
That means choosing riskier players who are usually avoided. You can also build a lineup that aligns with an unpopular game script, such as a blowout in a projected close game or vice versa.
Cash Games
Cash games are where you can play it safe. This is where you can double up your entry fee if you finish in the top half of the contest.
Choosing players with super cheap prices to allow you to jam in other stars is a prudent approach. You don’t need to worry about stacking players in an effort to create a correlation, so you can simply play the top options at cost.
Don’t take any risks when building cash game lineups. Avoid boom-or-bust types like deep-threat receivers, such as Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Their volatile production can sink your team. You want players with a narrow range of outcomes.
Stacks
Stacks are when you combine a quarterback with some of his teammates. The popular approach here is to stack passing games, such as Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
However, it’s a bit different in a single-game contest because we’re trying to get contrarian to win tournaments. This type of contest is the exception in that you can choose players with a negative correlation.
Taking this approach is a good way to differentiate your lineup from the competition. If you prefer to go with a positive correlation, be sure to find an unpopular player to round out your lineup.
Salary Cap Utilization
We have talked extensively about being contrarian in your lineup construction. Another way to do this is by creating a team that is below the salary cap, leaving money on the table.
Most other players tend to spend as close to the cap as they can, but this puts them at risk to split the pot in a single-game slate.
If your lineup is below the cap by $1,000 or more, there’s a good chance that it will be less popular. Be sure to take this approach in tournaments, but don’t worry about it in cash games.
Contest Selection
The last tip is to consider the contests that you’re entering. If you want to focus on tournaments, it’s best to go with single-entry formats. That’s because you won’t be competing with sharks who enter 150 lineups in larger fields.
If you do want to enter a large-field tournament, try to make at least 10 lineups because you’re competing against so many other players.
Be sure to incorporate some cash games as well because they can act as insurance to cover any of your potential losses taken in tournaments. My favorite approach is to combine a bit of both formats.
Lastly, be sure not to risk too much of your bankroll on a single slate.
