The second game of the 2024 NFL Christmas Day double-header will see Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens (10-5) visit NRG Stadium to take on C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans (9-6).
Both teams featured on Saturday in Week 16: Baltimore clinched a playoff berth with a 34-17 home victory over Pittsburgh, while Houston fell 27-19 in Kansas City.
Which team will emerge victorious in this AFC Divisional Round rematch? Let’s examine the latest betting odds before digging into my Ravens vs Texans prediction and best bets for Christmas Day.
Ravens vs Texans Christmas Odds
NFL odds are current as of Monday, Dec. 23, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Ravens (-218) vs Texans (+180)
- Spread: Ravens -4 (-112) vs Texans +4 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-108) / Under 47.5 (-112)
Ravens vs Texans Christmas Prediction
Ravens 27, Texans 17
Much has changed since Baltimore ended Houston’s 2023-24 campaign with a 34-10 home victory last January, and much has stayed the same.
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, who accounted for 252 total yards and four touchdowns in that postseason meeting, continues to play at an MVP level. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player has 37 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season, helping the offense rank first league-wide in yards (423.7) and third in points (30.1) per game.
While Baltimore’s offense continues to put up gaudy numbers, its defense has dropped off significantly since last season. That unit’s regression isn’t surprising since DC Mike Macdonald and a few key players left during the offseason. However, the defense has picked up its play in recent weeks — Baltimore has held opposing offenses to 24 or fewer points in five straight games — and ranks first against the run, allowing 3.6 yards per carry.
That strength will be key in this matchup, as Houston has relied heavily on offseason acquisition Joe Mixon (967 rushing yards, 11 rushing TDs). Stroud (19 passing TDs, 11 INTs) has endured a sophomore slump and is now down two of his top three wide receivers after Tank Dell suffered a dislocated kneecap on Saturday.
Much like the postseason matchup, the Ravens will be able to cue in on Nico Collins and slow down the Texans’ rushing attack en route to a relatively comfortable win.
Ravens vs Texans Christmas Best Bets
Ravens -4 (-112)
I would prefer to back the Ravens at -3 or -3.5, so shop around to find the best number you have access to, but I’m still comfortable taking the visitors to cover this spread. Jim Harbaugh’s squad is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite this season, winning those games by an average of 5.3 points per game.
The Texans’ defense hasn’t proven it can slow down Jackson and the Ravens’ offense, and I don’t see how Stroud and the offense can keep pace at less than full strength. Back Baltimore to win and cover as one of your best NFL bets today.
Texans: Under 20.5 Points (+102)
With that in mind, I’m also intrigued by this Texans team total prop at plus-money odds.
Houston’s offense (23.1 points per game) has taken a step back this season despite adding players like Mixon and injured wideout Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Bobby Slowik’s unit is in even more trouble now without Dell, who can take the top off defenses and make explosive plays down the field.
It will be challenging for the Texans to make a bunch of adjustments during a short week, so I expect them to struggle to move the ball methodically against an improving Ravens defense.
