Week 8 brought another poor result with 5.61 units lost, making it two weeks in a row in the red. I’m officially on a cold streak, but Week 9 is going to bring a major bounce back.
Read on for my best bet, longshot, and same-game parlay for Week 9. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
We’ll get back on track with my NFL Week 9 parlays.
Best NFL Week 9 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 95-120 (-0.15 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Nov. 3, at noon ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 9 Top Parlay (+208)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.4 Units
- Patriots ML (-162) vs Commanders
- Buccaneers/Texans: Under 40 Points (-110)
The top parlay starts off with the New England Patriots (2-6) to defeat the Washington Commanders (3-5).
Washington just traded two of its best players in edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat. That’s bad news for a defense that already ranked 30th in EPA vs the pass, according to RBSDM.com.
While Patriots quarterback Mac Jones hasn’t been good this season, ranking 36th in PFF Passing Grade, we should see positive results in this smash spot.
It also helps that Bill Belichick has had a lot of success versus first-year starting quarterbacks throughout his career.
I’ll finish it off with the Under in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Houston Texans game.
Tampa Bay games have gone Under in six of seven, including five that combined for fewer than 40 points.
Houston games have similarly been low-scoring, staying Under in five of seven, including four consecutive games that stayed below 40 points.
C.J. Stroud has started to hit the proverbial rookie wall, putting up a PFF Passing Grade below 60 in each of his last two.
Target these two picks in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 9 Parlay
Week 9 Longshot Parlay (+330)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.3 Units
- Panthers ML (+110) vs Colts
- Giants ML (+105) at Raiders
The longshot parlay starts off with the Carolina Panthers (1-6) to defeat the Indianapolis Colts (3-5).
Carolina needs to keep winning games because it doesn’t have its first rounder. We’re starting to see Bryce Young find his groove, and the rookie is coming off the best game of his career versus the Texans.
Young completed 71% of his passes for 235 yards and a touchdown, earning a 68.6 PFF Passing Grade, which was his best of the season.
This is a great spot to keep it rolling against the Colts, who rank 21st in EPA vs the pass.
We’ve also seen Gardner Minshew struggle this season (47th in PFF Passing Grade), so we’ll take the Panthers to win their second game in a row.
- See the full list of NFL Week 9 odds.
I’ll finish off this parlay by taking the New York Giants (2-6) to beat the Las Vegas Raiders (3-5).
Daniel Jones is ready to return for this one, which is good news for New York’s offense. We should see Saquon Barkley have a big game against the Raiders, who just got gashed by Jahmyr Gibbs and D’Onta Foreman.
Las Vegas fired Josh McDaniels on Wednesday, hiring former Giants’ linebacker Antonio Pierce as the interim head coach. I’m not buying into the revenge game narrative for this one.
The Raiders are expected to start Aidan O’Connell, who put up a 37.1 PFF Pass Grade in his lone start against the Chargers.
Look for the Giants to get a much-needed win in this spot.
NFL Week 9 Same-Game Parlay
Vikings vs Falcons Same-Game Parlay (+360)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.3 Units
- Jaren Hall: Under 192.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- K.J. Osborn: Under 33.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
- Brandon Powell: Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The focus of the Same-Game Parlay for Week 9 is on the quarterback situation in Minnesota.
With Kirk Cousins now out for the season, the Vikings turn to fifth-round rookie Jaren Hall, at least until new addition Josh Dobbs is ready to go.
In two drives vs the Packers with Hall under center, the Vikings fumbled and punted. While it’s always tough for a rookie to come into a game in relief, the results were not encouraging.
We should see Minnesota go with more of a run-heavy approach in Week 9, leaning on Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers.
For this reason, we’ll fade Hall on passing yards and target two ancillary pass-catchers in K.J. Osborn and Brandon Powell has the players who are most negatively impacted by Cousins’ injury.
We could also see the Falcons have long drives with their strong running game, limiting overall play volume for Minnesota.
