The Baltimore Ravens (7-3) head south to tangle with the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-7) in a Week 12 AFC battle on Sunday afternoon.
The Ravens recorded their fourth consecutive win in Week 11 with a harder-than expected 13-3 victory over the visiting Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars were off in Week 11 after dropping a 27-17 decision to the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 10, Jacksonville’s sixth loss in its last seven games.
Without further delay, let’s dive into our Baltimore vs Jacksonville best bets, predictions and betting tips for this intraconference clash.
Ravens vs Jaguars Odds
The Ravens’ status as four-point road favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook as of Tuesday afternoon is at least mildly surprising, considering the four-win disparity between the teams.
However, both that figure and the low projected total of 44 points are explainable in large part by the fact Baltimore’s offense struggled badly against an inferior opponent in the Panthers, and that Jacksonville’s defense has been considerably better at home (305.8 YPG allowed) compared to the road (392.3 YPG allowed).
Ravens vs Jaguars Implied Totals
Ravens 24, Jaguars 20
Oddsmakers clearly seem to be expecting a bounce-back effort from the Ravens offense to great extent, while also envisioning the Jaguars offense coming close to keeping pace despite a Baltimore defense that has gotten better as the season has gone on.
Ravens vs Jaguars Pick of the Day
Read more on this Ravens vs Jaguars bet below.
Ravens vs Jaguars Prediction
Ravens 23, Jaguars 20
The Ravens have now played four games without Rashod Bateman (IR-foot), and the air attack unsurprisingly looks like it’s not quite hitting on all cylinders without the threat he poses. Baltimore did manage to score 27 points against the Saints in Week 9 without the talented second-year wideout, but one of their touchdowns came courtesy of a very short field created by their defense.
In the other three games Bateman has been absent for, Baltimore has put up a modest total of 52 points, just over 17 per game. There’s hope to be gleaned from the successful return of Mark Andrews in Week 11 after a one-game absence due to shoulder and ankle injuries, as well as the performance of Demarcus Robinson (9-128) against the Panthers.
Both players, along with promising young tight end Isaiah Likely and the likes of Kenyan Drake, Gus Edwards (currently questionable after missing Week 11 with hamstring and knee issues) and Devin Duvernay, does give Lamar Jackson some weapons to work with.
That’s a solid group of players that nevertheless fall well short of elite and could have trouble making inroads versus a Jaguars defense that tends to play much tougher on its home field. Jacksonville has been especially good against the pass at home (186 passing yards per game allowed), and the Jags have snagged an impressive nine interceptions overall.
However, Jacksonville has also been one of the weakest pressure teams in the league, generating only 16 sacks in 10 games. That figure will be key to Baltimore’s chances of squeaking out what should be a narrow road victory. With enough time to throw, Jackson could certainly pick his spots or take off on designed runs enough to negotiate several successful drives.
It’s also worth noting — given Andrews’ importance to the Ravens’ offensive success — that while the Jaguars have been good at limiting volume in terms of receptions to tight ends, they’ve also yielded more chunk plays to the position than just about any team. Jacksonville has surrendered only 39 receptions to TEs, but at 13.6 yards per catch.
On the other side, there could be some air yards to be had for Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk and others, as the Ravens are giving up 250.8 passing yards per road game. Nevertheless, Baltimore has been tightening up the healthier it’s gotten in the secondary and has yielded a more modest 223 passing yards per contest in the last three.
Additionally, hopes of achieving balance and keeping the Ravens’ fearsome pass rush (31 sacks) honest with a healthy dose of Travis Etienne are dimmed by the fact Baltimore is allowing a minuscule 80.6 rushing yards per road game and an NFL-low 42.7 rushing yards per contest in the last three.
This has high potential for a back-and-forth affair, as the combination of the Ravens’ offensive inconsistency and the Jaguars’ potential to keep the chains moving with some passing should help keep matters close. However, Jackson’s talent and edge over Lawrence will be the deciding factor in here in a close Ravens win.
Ravens vs Jaguars Bet Tips
Here are a few Ravens vs Jaguars betting trends to consider before making your bets:
- The Ravens are 4-5-1 against the spread, including 4-1 as the away team and 2-3-1 against AFC opponents.
- The Jaguars are 3-7 against the spread, including 2-2 as the home team and 3-4 against AFC foes.
- The Ravens are 77-69-7 ATS after a win since John Harbaugh became head coach in 2008 and 21-17-2 against the number since Jackson became a full-time starter in 2019.
Ravens vs Jaguars Best Bets
Jaguars +4 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
As already detailed, the Jaguars are typically a tough out at home, at times even under previous coaching regimes and versions of the team that sported inferior talent to the current iteration.
Considering the Ravens’ struggles to move the ball consistently and Jacksonville’s rest advantage, I like the odds of the hosts keeping things close, at minimum.
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Jaguars +7.5 & Over 37.5 Points (+115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
This is a fun and potentially profitable way to try and capitalize on the belief Jacksonville will be competitive in this game and there can be a decent amount of points scored.
The extra 3.5 points on the conventional spread is certainly welcome for added security, and there are enough pieces on either side capable of making noise offensively to make the prospect of at least a 38-point total very feasible.
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Ravens vs Jaguars Props
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